Four flush to nut flush

[Carl.S_]

Hi all - poker idiot's request - If you hold a pocket A and the flop comes three cards of that suit, what are the odds of making the flush by the river? Cheers

[taz115]

About 2:1 or 35%

[Carl.S_]

So about the same as if you had suited pocket cards and two of that suit came on the flop - thought it was, but thanks for confirmation.

[taz115]

Exactly the same. In both cases there are 4 exposed cards of your suit and 9 unexposed cards. With two cards still to come off of the deck there is no difference in how often you will make a flush.

But with a hand like AA you obviously have some chance that you are currently ahead and have some additonal outs to 3 of a kind and occasionally you make a full house as well.

[CroMagnon]

I though the odds of hitting a flush, when four of the suit are held, and two cards to come was 4.29:1, no?

Cro

[taz115]

That is your approximate odds of hitting a flush on the next card. OP is talking about seeing both the turn and the river.

See here.

You number is for 9 outs in the first column, my approximation is for 9 out in the third column.

[nsidestrate]

[nsidestrate]

Taz may be replacing me as the instant answer man.

[taz115]

[CroMagnon]

Ah, si, io capito. Grazie mille.

[Robbie06]

Is it generally better to not evaluate odds based on two cards to come?

[taz115]

It depends on the situation. If your facing an allin decision on the flop then you want to calculate your odds of hitting with 2 cards to come because you know how much you have to pay to see 2 cards. If your not allin it is usually better to calculate your odds one street at a time to be sure that you are not paying too much to see the next card. This is especially true in limit holdem where it can be correct to call on the flop, but incorrect to call on the turn with certain draws.