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found a problem

 
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AlamedaMike
2K Club


Joined: 29 Jun 2005
Posts: 2042
Location: Alameda, CA

PostPosted: Sat Jun 02, 2007 12:21 pm    Post subject: found a problem Reply with quote

I think that I have found a problem that is hurting my profits, such that there are.

When I have a very good hand on the flop and the turn card is bad I hate to release my hand. I release my hand less often than I now think that I should. i.e I do not fold often enough.

I really think one skill that is useful in low limit nofold'em hold'em is knowing when to release you and hand and actually doing it.

This is an example and I am not sure if it actually played poorly or not - this is from a limit hold'em 6/12 live full ring game with 9 players - the game is currently running a little dead - 3-4 to the flop for no raise.

I pick up Jack of Spades Jack of Clubs UTG and raise. I get called from a player (OTB) that playes 90% of his hands, raised or not and will call with any pair and any draw, bet top pair, and raise with anything better. The other player (SB) in the hand plays less hands and plays better.

They both call me and the flop is good for me. 10 of Diamonds 4 of Spades 5 of Spades

SB bets and I raise, OTB thinks and calls. The Turn is a Queen of Diamonds. I do not like this card because it is an over card. SB checks, so I bet, OTB ponders and calls, SB calls.

River is the 4 of Diamonds, SB checks, I bet, OTB folds, and SB goes into the tank and ponders. After a bit he finally calls and I show my jacks not expecting them to hold up. He shows Queen of Hearts 10 of Spades for top two.

Side note: he jumps up and down saying 'I knew it', well if he knew it he could have saved me some chips by betting his hand on the turn. Rolling Eyes I think that he put me on AA or KK and the 4 now killed his hand. I am known to play good cards.

Back to my problem. I just have this psychological issue that once I have a good hand that turns bad I don't want to fold. I know the money in the pot is not mine, that is not the issue, it is just I got this great hand that has turned to trash, which will happen more often as not.

I need to look at the board on the turn or river to see if my hand is still good. If not fold it. Sometiems it is hard to do.

--------------- I did fold this hand but did not like to --------------

Queen of Spades 9 of Spades in the BB and on the turn the board was 7 of Spades 10 of Diamonds Jack of Diamonds (Queen of Clubs) - I had 6 outs on the flop and on the turn my hand died a sudden death. I checked and folded but I missed my pretty hand. The river was a 9 of Diamonds and the 5 of Diamonds 6 of Diamonds won.

Any cogent advice? See a shrink? Re-read the Poker Mindset? Will TPM help with this issue or do I just need to recognize poker reality that it will happen more often than not and save a few chips here and there?
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nukeduke
ITH BBQ Host Master


Joined: 07 Mar 2005
Posts: 2999
Location: Nashville

PostPosted: Sat Jun 02, 2007 12:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

You're right, most players don't fold enough. Pot size and opponents have everything to do with the decisions though. Hand 1 you are just value betting IMO -- when the SB checked the river I don't think you can assume he has you beat with a queen. The loosy goosy player may call your bet with less than top pair so I think that hand is ok. If the SB raised the turn that's where you have to let it go, especially since he is now a proven weak/nit type (at least against you).

Hand 2 - If the pot is big enough I may call a river bet if I am closing the action. Probably a good fold but you didn't give a lot of info on how many players, pot size etc. Again, I probably would fold a lot here too but, I can find a call in the right circumstance.

I think the saying goes "You should look for reasons to fold on the flop and turn but, look for reasons to call on the river" I think I got that right. I also think that in live games that are even slightly passive it is ok to stick around and see a showdown. I've played quite a few live hands with Nside in the last 6 months and I can tell you that he doesn't fold a lot of hands that were good enough to enter the pot to begin with. I can't speak for him - just an observation.
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AlamedaMike
2K Club


Joined: 29 Jun 2005
Posts: 2042
Location: Alameda, CA

PostPosted: Sat Jun 02, 2007 1:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

nukeduke wrote:
You're right, most players don't fold enough. Pot size and opponents have everything to do with the decisions though. Hand 1 you are just value betting IMO -- when the SB checked the river I don't think you can assume he has you beat with a queen. The loosy goosy player may call your bet with less than top pair so I think that hand is ok. If the SB raised the turn that's where you have to let it go, especially since he is now a proven weak/nit type (at least against you).

Hand 2 - If the pot is big enough I may call a river bet if I am closing the action. Probably a good fold but you didn't give a lot of info on how many players, pot size etc. Again, I probably would fold a lot here too but, I can find a call in the right circumstance.

I think the saying goes "You should look for reasons to fold on the flop and turn but, look for reasons to call on the river" I think I got that right. I also think that in live games that are even slightly passive it is ok to stick around and see a showdown. I've played quite a few live hands with Nside in the last 6 months and I can tell you that he doesn't fold a lot of hands that were good enough to enter the pot to begin with. I can't speak for him - just an observation.


Thanks, I did not give a lot of info on the second hand as you said. There were 4 enemy and I was sure that my only outs were another Q and one was a diamond so I had 1 out. A 8 for a gutshot would win/split most of the time so that was 3 more outs. So the fold was pretty easy under the circumstances but I did not like it. Four shaky outs and 4 bad guys the pot odds were not really there unless I had the best hand (7.5 big bets going into the river giving me 1-7.5 for a 11-1 maybe win - I do not think anyone had the straight on the turn - in fact I might have had the best hand on the turn since 1 bet and 3 just called along. A blank on the river might have given me the best hand. But, 2 pair was a very likely hand.

All in all not a strong hand so I folded.

Mike Caro says tend to fold small pots early and tend to call large post later. Pretty much what you mean.

I guess I will just have to work on it some more. Thanks again.
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Piemaster
Author of THE POKER MINDSET


Joined: 15 Jan 2004
Posts: 6931
Location: London

PostPosted: Wed Jun 06, 2007 10:00 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I find the turn a bit difficult too. As Nuke says, on the flop find an excuse to fold, on the river find an excuse to call. The turn is a bit of a halfway house, especially against aggressive players where you have to go to showdown a lot more or get run over.
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AlamedaMike
2K Club


Joined: 29 Jun 2005
Posts: 2042
Location: Alameda, CA

PostPosted: Wed Jun 13, 2007 2:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Piemaster wrote:
I find the turn a bit difficult too. As Nuke says, on the flop find an excuse to fold, on the river find an excuse to call. The turn is a bit of a halfway house, especially against aggressive players where you have to go to showdown a lot more or get run over.


Thanks - I need to watch out for aggressive opponents as you say. Not easy. Most of the players that I play against regard me as somewhat tight and know that I can make a fold. I am not likely to knowingly over play my hand.

Yesterday I was playing and I had Jack of Spades 9 of Spades OTB and flopped 2 pair against 3 players. The flop was Jack of Diamonds 9 of Hearts 6 of Clubs. They checked to me and I bet the flop. 2 called. The turn was a Queen of Clubs. 1 checked and the next player now bet.

I figured that he most likely had KT but I called to see the river. The river was a King of Hearts. The first player bet, the second called and I folded.

First player won with Ace of Clubs 10 of Spades and the second player had King of Diamonds 10 of Clubs.

I am not sure if I should have folded the Turn to his bet or not? He either was bluffing a draw like QT or had a better hand than mine.
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AlamedaMike
2K Club


Joined: 29 Jun 2005
Posts: 2042
Location: Alameda, CA

PostPosted: Wed Jun 13, 2007 2:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Piemaster wrote:
I find the turn a bit difficult too. As Nuke says, on the flop find an excuse to fold, on the river find an excuse to call. The turn is a bit of a halfway house, especially against aggressive players where you have to go to showdown a lot more or get run over.


The problem with the Turn is that your odds go down by 50% since the bet doubles which effectively halves the pot. Further the flop gives you 71% of you hand.

The combination of the price going up, the odds going down and the % of your hand dropping to 14% makes for a difficult game indeed.

The TURN is where things really do turn - often for the worse but sometime better.

(I love to catch my inside straight on the turn for the nuts and check raise about 5 players:

I had 4 of Diamonds 5 of Diamonds BB and the turn was a 2 of Hearts on a Ace of Diamonds Queen of Diamonds 3 of Hearts flop. Twisted Evil Wink )
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