Posted: Sat Jun 27, 2009 5:57 am Post subject: Folding top pair to turn check raise
I thought I had already posted this but it seems to have been eaten.
I have played 211 hands with the Villian and he is 32/20/2.5. He check raises 29% on the flop and 29% on the turn. His 3-bet range is 7% from 58 samples.
He has 3-bet a steal (from button or CO) once from 4 samples on SB.
In the hand I could not figure what I beat after his flop continuation bet and turn check raise - this feels extremely strong. I can't see what hand he would play like this (he is not an idiot) that I beat and there are many hands I am drawing dead to. Correct fold given the information? Possibly he has a weaker ace but his line was just so strong...
2.5/5 Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at weaktight.com
That is a really odd line. My initial instinct is the same as yours -- this has to be at least AK, more likely a set.
It just slightly bugged me after. I don't often fold a decent top pair HU, especially when no draws have come in. I would have to win this hand about 20% of the time (2 BB to win 8.8BB) to make this profitable: will he have Ax or trash often enough to make this happen? Hmm...
Joined: 04 Oct 2004 Posts: 5986 Location: Somewhere down the crazy river
Posted: Sat Jun 27, 2009 6:38 pm Post subject:
Looks like 2 pair or a set. Could be he 3-bet A9 PF, led the flop w/the Ace and, given you called, went for the check-raise when the 9 hit as it doesn't look dangerous.
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