Folding a winner

[cybrarian]

Just curious as to how people cope with or avoid this one in general. No matter how much I play (which admittedly isn't much these days, but I do have a few hands behnd me) I don't seem to be able to quite shake the demon that is folding the best hand.

Yesterday, for example, I held trips with a weak kicker and was raised on the turn. I knew I was beat. Very certain, but I continued, because I thought it would have been a mistake nonetheless to fold such a good hand. At showdown, I wasn't surprised to find trips outckicked.

Shortly after this, I was check-raised on the turn on a different table, and again I held trips in BB. The board was somewhat co-ordinated so there was a risk of a straight out there as well as a better trips, and we were three-handed. My play had made it clear, I thought, that I had a good hand, although looking back, my aggression on the flop could have fooled the check-raiser into thinking I didn't have trips. So, on the turn, SB checks, I bet, UTG+1 calls, and SB raises.

Bizarrely, I fold, convinced for a number of reasons that I was behind. Of course, I wasn't, and UTG+1 called, SB bet a dud river, UTG+1 called, and took the pot with top pair (from the flop on) and a better kicker).

The pot was a decent size by then - 9-10BB IIRC. Folding a hand that would have won that pot annoyed me. I don't generally keep the feeling for long, but it's still very frustrating, and something I find myself doing too often.

So - how can I stop myself doing this?

[Piemaster]

I guess it's the same principle as when you fold J3o pre-flop and the flop comes J33. The only difference is that we learn very early on in our poker careers to become immune to this situation, because we can be positive that, in the long term, playing J3o is a losing proposition.

Folding a winner in a big pot is a far more complex issue. It's not a case of results based thinking as with the J3 example, but more a case of wondering if we made the right play at all. When we make a difficult fold on the turn, or especially on the river, it can be almost impossible to be sure whether that decision was correct or not regardless of the result of the hand.

I find that it can help to focus on something other than the obvious (that you folded a winner in a decent sized pot and cost yourself that pot). Focus on whether your decision was correct or not. Jot down the details of the hand so that you can dig it up in Poker Tracker later. Post it on the forum and get some opinions. The fact is that if your decision was correct (i.e. with the information you had, it was a correct fold), you can pat yourself on the back because you earned some of those elusive 'Sklansky Dollars'. If it turned out you made the wrong decision, then at least you can learn from the experience and play similar situations better in the future.

As an aside I am slightly concerned that you routinely consider folding trips on the turn. There are very few situation where you should be folding trips on the turn in limit hold'em, especially for one bet. Against a straight or a flush, you have 10 outs to a full house, which is be enough to call in nearly all circumstances. You are in bad shape against a better kicker, but you have a chance of hitting your kicker, and you probably have quite a few outs to a split pot too. Plus there are lots of players out there who routinely raise the turn with top pair, a draw or even a stone-cold bluff. It's one of those situations where you usually have to at least call down.

[cybrarian]

[Piemaster]

[cybrarian]

That's a good way of looking at it - the distinction between having, say, top pair, and having trips.

I guess I would just never expect someone to check-raise with such a poor hand in that position - on the turn, with two opponents - either they just were really overplaying their hand, or they thought that just maybe there was someone stupid enough at the table to fold a big hand.

[AlamedaMike]

I read somewhere that if you do not sometimes fold the winner then you will not be a winning player.

No one likes to fold and then see that they had the best hand. Either, HU or last to act mulitway.

Everyone has folded the winner on occasion. That said, how do I deal with it? The more experienced you are and the more you win the easier it is to deal with it.

When I do it I think back and try to determine why I folded to see if I can learn something for next time. I actually admire players that can make a good fold and then if they find out they had the best hand not let it bother them.

However, making good folds in limit poker is not the best way to make money - calling and losing is often far better. At least that is what Mike Caro says.

[Piemaster]

[janeg]

Hi Cyb ... not sure if this applies to you but when I've folded the best hand I find it bothers me because I feel stupid and embarrassed even though no one else at the table knows what I folded and I get angry at myself; for the fold and the feeling. Bottom line is, it's ego.

Feel I should have known better. I find Pi's approach works the best, thinking about what I knew of the other players and the texture of the board did I make a reasonable decision? Sometimes the answer is 'no', in which case I have to mentally allow myself the permission to screw up; not rationalize it or get ticked at the other players; but acknowledge I made a dumb play, it happens, and move on. Doesn't always work but it's getting easier, slowly. In the end I guess it has more to do with how well you know yourself than with how well you know how to play or your opponents.

[therivierakid]

[nsidestrate]

[AlamedaMike]

[cybrarian]

[AlamedaMike]

[pilchard]

The decision to fold on the turn is determined by the characteristics of the SB.

There are situations where folding the turn would have been the right decision with your trips (the circumstances where such a situation may arise may be extremely limited, but there could definitely exist a situation where folding was right).

Two of the most important questions you ask yourself are "1. does the SB have a better hand than me (%chance)" and "2. and if so, what is the size of the pot and what are the chances of me improving to beat him".

Your knowledge of the SB ranges from 0% to approaching 100%. 0% would indicate someone you have never played before, playing his first hand at the table. Unfortunately, for most players, too many opponents hover around the 0% mark because of lack of attention and multitabling.

If Cyb (Tighty McTighty) was the SB and I was the BB I would say that my knowledge of him was around the 90% mark (You would never have 100% knowledge against a human, even tighty misclicks or gets a rush of blood every now and again).

I would have to give serious consideration that I was behind on the turn. However, let's say I have 90% knowledge and I rate my chances of being behind at 80% then if I am 70ish% sure I am behind I have to see the end in this situation given the pot size alone but also my chances of improving to a better hand. Of course, there is nothing to say that future betting or the river card may dicate a change in my assessment.

What I have been preaching for years now is that the actual value of your hand, to a certain degree, is irrelevant (ie. top pair, flush, trips etc..). I hate the saying "if you flop a set and lose and don't lose a lot of money then you have played it wrong". What a load of rubbish. There are boards, betting sequences and opponents where you can be reasonably confident you hold the best hand with second pair. There are other situations where you can be almost certain that you are beind with a set.

The key is not what you have but what your opponent thinks you have (if he is actually thinking) and therefore what that tells you about what he is holding.

In the actual hand, if you have no knowledge of the SB, you have to consider that he is treating your flop aggression as top pair (after all isn't the flop the phoney round) and therefore he is still happy with his top pair. Folding in this situation on the turn was clearly a mistake both as an assessment of your current position but also, as an assessment of your chances of improving when compared to the size of the pot.

I don't tend to get too upset about folding the best hand (I dare say I do it quite frequently in small pots on the flop, most of the time without ever knowing) but if I do it in big pots at the later stages, I make sure that I reassess my opponents, because it would have been based on my assessment of them that I made the "mistake". (Note: there are situations where it may not have been a mistake even where I folded the best hand, eg two huge draws acting unusually aggressively on the turn where I have a weakish made hand and an expectation that at least one of them has a better made hand).