Flop Decision

[MXRider]

no reads on this table as I only sat down roughly an orbit ago.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Hero ($26.10)
MP ($25.50)
CO ($25)
Button ($4.40)
SB ($29.70)
BB ($24.65)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A, J.
Hero raises to $0.85, MP calls $0.85, 1 fold, Button calls $0.85, SB calls $0.75, BB calls $0.60.

Flop: ($4.25) 8, Q, 9 (5 players)
SB bets $3, BB calls $3, Hero???

[jaydreb]

I probably just call because you're getting a great price on your draw, although a raise or even a push can't be that wrong.

[Taardvark]

Without a read on villian or established table image I'd call here with a ton of outs. Against some players I'd reopen this but you don't know if this is the type of opponent that will freeze up or one that will make a big move and bet you off a hand you want to continue with.

[emmapeel]

I'm worried that SB might have a big hand here. Betting into 4 opponents including the pre-flop raiser shows a lot of strength. With a flush draw and a straight draw we are doing good but not if we are up against a set.

I think I'm just calling here. The odds to call are 3-1 and we should win enough in implied odds to make calling a good play.

There is still a lot of play in this hand, there are two players to act still and the turn may take some thought too especially if the board pairs.

Re-raising to say $14 is another option. I'm concerned about the SB though and I think calling is safer.

EP

[Scully]

I think a non-shove raise is a bad idea personally. There's currently $10 in the pot and your have around $25 behind. A re-raise would need to be to $12 minimum, so that's pretty much half your stack in so you're committed to getting it all in. Given the action to date I can't believe that, if the raise is called, the pot will then get then get checked down, so you'll probably have to call all in on the turn. Raising for half your stack and then folding just sucks.

I would advocate either a call, as the pot odds are good enough to warrant it and then you can still get away from this on the turn without spewing half your stack, or a shove. You probably have 12 clean outs (OK 9 if villain holds KJ), plus possibly 3 more to the Ace although these may be doubtful.

If weighted as 9 definite clean outs to the flush, 3 probables to the straight (so let's weight that down to 2 outs) plus 3 possibles to the A (so let's weight that down to 1 out). Overall if you work on the basis that you have 12 outs, using the 4x rule of thumb you're 48% to win the hand. Throw some fold equity into the calculations as well and I think this is a +EV shove.

Which line you choose is then villain dependent. If they're going to shut down if your flush comes on the turn, get it in now. If not, call. As in this instance we have no read I personally would shove. This is perhaps a personal thing to help set up a false LAG/maniac image that might help me get paid off in later hands.

Overall it's a style thing I guess, but a normal size raise, IMO, is not good.

[Scully]

I've just referred to PNLH (how sad is this - I have a copy in my bookcase at work for some light lunchtime reading) and with 12 outs the probability of winning the hand is 43.37%. If the A is simply not considered an out and we think we have 11 discounted outs the probability is 40%.

40% is getting a bit marginal maybe as we'd need more fold equity to make it a +EV play, and given the raise and the call I'm not sure that we'd get that much.

Maybe a flat call is best, although on reflection if you call and then starting raising a spade turn you might as well play with your hand face up.

I'm still undecided - it'd probably depend on my mood at the time!!

[Taardvark]

[Soultwister]

Even while I can be owned totally by donking into with the nuts because I love raising donkleads, my standard line here would be to just call.

Jaydreb hit the mark here, which is that you are getting a great price on your draw, and further, you got position.

I do not often see someone donk/fold into a million people on such a board texture, so I think villain is leading here with the intention to donk-call or donk-3bet. So fold equity is very low in my eyes, while your pot equity is still bloody great. I would definitely choose to just call here.

And calling will not scare the other player out yet, which is pretty nice with good pot equity here.

[jfletcher]

How about a minraise? Sure, some folks might see that as weak and 3-bet OTT, but others would be just curious enough to call and see what you're up to, and then check to you on the turn. Now you've got yourself a free card with your draw!

I know it's probably not as good as a flat call (my first preference) or a push (also OK), but I think it would be OK agaisnt certain passive opponents.

[emmapeel]

[Soultwister]

[jfletcher]

[Nutjob]

Who you fools donk-betting? He's read Matthew's book (or so I've heard) EZ push.

[chrisjp]

[Taardvark]