Final 3 Tables Thoughts...

[mash_tun]

Was looking at the table draws for today...trying to predict table dynamics...first thoughts based on chipstacks/M's (ignoring player styles):

Table 1's M's (seat order 1 through 9):

23---44---32---42---23---11---24---6---5

Avg M for Top 2 stacks: 43
M difference 1st vs. 2nd stack: 2
M difference 2nd vs. 3rd stack: 8
Avg. M difference 1st stack vs. 3rd-9th: 26
Avg. M difference 2nd stack vs. 3rd-9th: 24

Thoughts:

--This table has the 2 smallest of the "bigstacks", and they are essentially identical...they should probably be avoiding one another. As compared to Tables #2 & #3, they have the tightest gap between them and the rest of the table...they probably will not be able to steal with relative impunity.
--There are 2 shortstacks right next to each other; it should be interesting to see what happens when both are in the blinds...they actually may be protected a bit, since the 2 big stacks will be in EP when they are in SB/BB; the 2 bigstacks need to worry about each other as well as the M=24 button, so they may not be able to beat up on these 2 shortstacks.
--On the other hand, the 2 shorties can't really push too lightly in LP, since they'll be pushing on blinds all with M's >23.
--I'd expect this table to drop 2-3 players fairly quickly.


Table 2's M's (seat order 1 through 9):

21---11---11---18---55---17---31---47---5

Avg M for Top 2 stacks: 51
M difference 1st vs. 2nd stack: 9
M difference 2nd vs. 3rd stack: 15
Avg. M difference 1st stack vs. 3rd-9th: 39
Avg. M difference 2nd stack vs. 3rd-9th: 30

Thoughts:

--This table has the 2 of the 3 biggest of the "big stacks", both are similar, and both are well-distanced from the rest of the table.
--This table could lose players really, really quick, OR be very, very volatile also based on stack sizes and orientation...it could lose 3-4 players quickly, or see a quick equalization of M's, based on results of the all-in confrontations that should crop up for the 5 players w. M's less than 20.
--Seats #1,2,3,4, and 9 are going to be in BIG trouble. I'm salivating if I'm the M=47 bigstack in seat #8 (Tiffany Michelle, BTW) and these seats are playing tight when they are the blinds. She is in GREAT position to chip up w. minimal risk.


Table 3's M's (seat order 1 through 9):

16---22---30---24---24---40---57---18---9

Avg M for Top 2 stacks: 48
M difference 1st vs. 2nd stack: 17
M difference 2nd vs. 3rd stack: 10
Avg. M difference 1st stack vs. 3rd-9th: 37
Avg. M difference 2nd stack vs. 3rd-9th: 19

Thoughts:
--This table is the only one with a true single chipleader, since 2nd in chips has only about 2/3 of the CL's stack.
-This is the table with the tightest, flattest distribution of chipstacks. It will most likely play the tightest and will be the feeder table for player moves to Tables 1+2 as players bust from those tables.


Other thoughts???

[nsidestrate]

[jrspm]

Are they playing down to 9 tonight, or 18?

[jrspm]

TM has had a rough time by the looks of it - down to half the stack she started the day with, around 4.5 million.

[chrisjp]

Play down to 9, but I guess that is obvious since they are at two tables now and still playing....

It will take a miracle for TM to make the FT, but I still believe in miracles. At least in hockey.

Chris

[nsidestrate]

She is out in 17th when AJ was crushed by AA on an Ace high board. 300k, of which she apparently held about a third.

[chrisjp]

She has 4.3M. M of 13 or so, 35BBs or so. An UTG raise at a full table and a call. She's in the BB with AJo, the death hand multiway. She calls. OK, that's ok since it was 380K into a about a 1.33M pot. I wouldn't but I bet Gus Hansen would.

Flop is AT9. UTG leads for 1M, over half size pot bet. Other player calls. Now what is the chance you are ahead here with AJo ? What are the chances that you can improve if behind? Well a jack or a backdoor straight are about it. Even the Jack is a dout. Someone could have a set of Ts or 9s here already. What are the chances that they both fold if you push. Well you have a loose reckless image. Chances are .0001%

Would have been wonderful for poker to see her at the final table....but no miracles today. Wow, how did she get this far? That's the beauty of poker.

Chris

[krazytxan]

She was third in chips starting the day.
She was recklessly aggressive and she is out.

Too bad someone didn't tell her to SLOW down.

[chrisjp]

[the_hawk]

Astonishingly bad call on the flop with AJ. Doesn't stuff like this make you tourney guys tear your hair out? How can someone capable of such an awful play go so deep? It is VERY tempting to just say lol donkaments.

[mchilger]

I don't like the preflop call either. But as Chris says, Hellmuth and Hansen would be right in there.

I did read some of her hands where I thought she played quite well. She played a set quite nicely on one hand. By big new thing is position though and some of her preflop calls were questionable.

Matthew