Joined: 29 Jun 2005 Posts: 2042 Location: Alameda, CA
Posted: Tue Jun 26, 2007 4:15 pm Post subject: Fear of missing out on something.
One thing that I know about myself that falls under psychology is that I often have a unnecessary fear that I am going to miss out on something. This keeps me from folding more hands that I know should be folded.
I am afraid that if I fold this hand I will miss an opportunity. I am getting better at it but it is taking a lot of work and time. I just have to let the hand go either preflop or during the hand.
This is a hard skill for me to learn and I know that it is costing me money.
BTW, does anyone know the 'cost' of a fold preflop in a limit game not in the blind? There is the cost of the blinds and the rake. I figure it cost $19 an hour in a 6/12 game with a $4 drop and a $1 toke - blinds are $6 and $4 (3 blinds $24 + wining 3 hands $15 = $39 and 50% ROI = $19).
I feel that the hand is costing me $0.60 to fold it? Does this make any sense and should the hand only be considered based on its EV? Should I add the $0.60 to the estimate of the EV?
I will get a hand like 87s or 98s in MP/LP that is a marginal hand in this situation and tend to call instead of folding. Maybe the number of callers does not warrant the call for instance.
You can win a monster pot with any hand, even 72o has two ways to flop quads and even more ways to flop a boat. So by not playing 72o, you are surely missing out. Most players know that playing 72o is a losing play but there are much more subtle situations. Like limping in with 54s in LP after one limper, playing AQ against a tight UTG raise, etc. By not playing these hands you have an EV of 0, as opposed to the negative EV if you do play these hands.
By not playing these hands, you miss out on possible short term winnings, but it will save you money in the long run. One of the problems with live play is that the long run takes a very long time, as opposed to online play.
Either way you are going to miss out on something. Either the oppurtunity to get pretty lucky and maybe win that hand or if you decide you don't want to miss out on that then you'll just miss out on the extra cash that should be in your bankroll if you fold those hands.
There seem to be two questions here. What Willem said for question 1.
As regards the second question, it's a bit difficult to see exactly where you're coming from but I'll have a go. If you make a "standard fold" (one that you would always make given the way you play) then you can't consider that it costs you anything. You seem to be basing the "cost" calculation on your overall win-rate, and making such a standard fold is built into that.
Joined: 29 Jun 2005 Posts: 2042 Location: Alameda, CA
Posted: Wed Jun 27, 2007 9:02 am Post subject:
Willem wrote:
You can win a monster pot with any hand, even 72o has two ways to flop quads and even more ways to flop a boat. So by not playing 72o, you are surely missing out. Most players know that playing 72o is a losing play but there are much more subtle situations. Like limping in with 54s in LP after one limper, playing AQ against a tight UTG raise, etc. By not playing these hands you have an EV of 0, as opposed to the negative EV if you do play these hands.
By not playing these hands, you miss out on possible short term winnings, but it will save you money in the long run. One of the problems with live play is that the long run takes a very long time, as opposed to online play.
I hope this is what you meant.
That is exactly what I mean. You have a hand that is almost playable but the situation dictates a fold - AQs is a good example. You sit for hours and then you get a pretty hand like Ad Qd and some rock raises in front of you. The correct move to save money is to fold. I mostly do and I just miss my pretty hand - this is where discipline and patients comes in. In the long run we save money.
Lately I have been able to overcome these feelings and I would rather fold than play. This is just an emotion that I have identified.
However, if I make a correct fold and see that I would have won the hand I do not regret or miss it. It is just the marginal hands that are sometimes playable - like mid range suited and connected.
I was on the button with and there was a raise to my right and I was next to act. There were 2 limpers and 2 left to act - I folded. In the past I would have played that hand.
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and there was a raise to my right and I was next to act. There were 2 limpers and 2 left to act - I folded. In the past I would have played that hand.
