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Do implied odds make it right for me see the Turn?

 
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Da_Big_Fish
1K Club


Joined: 09 Feb 2005
Posts: 1710
Location: West Virginia

PostPosted: Thu Aug 14, 2008 6:16 pm    Post subject: Do implied odds make it right for me see the Turn? Reply with quote

$0.05/$0.1 Pot Limit Holdem
8 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG arcticmammal ($2.10)
UTG+1 van Broski ($3.10)
MP1 jaks_55 ($9.90)
MP2 RookieB ($12.30)
CO Hero ($6.50)
BTN GMac3296 ($1.55)
SB jrm6692 ($1.35)
BB snootcher ($4.65)

Pre-flop: ($0.15, 8 players) Hero is CO Ace of Hearts King of Diamonds
1 fold, van Broski calls $0.10, 2 folds, Hero raises to $0.30, 1 fold, jrm6692 calls $0.25, 1 fold, van Broski calls $0.20

Flop: 7 of Spades 10 of Clubs Queen of Clubs ($1, 3 players)
jrm6692 bets $0.30, van Broski calls $0.30, Hero calls $0.30

Turn: 3 of Clubs ($1.90, 3 players)
jrm6692 checks, van Broski bets $0.50, Hero folds, jrm6692 goes all-in $0.75, van Broski calls $0.25

River: 8 of Clubs ($3.40, 2 players)

Final Pot: $3.40
jrm6692 shows: Queen of Diamonds 10 of Diamonds
van Broski shows: Jack of Diamonds 10 of Spades

jrm6692 wins $3.10 ( won +$1.75 )
Hero lost -$0.60
van Broski lost -$1.35
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Soultwister



Joined: 19 May 2006
Posts: 429

PostPosted: Thu Aug 14, 2008 6:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Not really, this is a situation of negative implied odds. Some of your outs may be dirty, like the J of clubs, and hitting top pair will be tough aswell since it makes many two-pair and straight combo's.

So assume you hit top pair you will generally end up break-even on the investment (I think that's not the case) if all gutshot cards are clean you need to get 10.8:1 implied odds to call (so need to win $3.24 should you hit. With these stack sizes, that's pretty darn hard, especially since even if you hit, the hands that will end up putting more money in will generally still have a redraw. But when not even sure if the 4 gutshots out are good, you only got 3 clean outs here.

In short, this is a fold.
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Da_Big_Fish
1K Club


Joined: 09 Feb 2005
Posts: 1710
Location: West Virginia

PostPosted: Thu Aug 14, 2008 6:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks Soultwister.

I am trying to apply some of these concepts when I am playing, but I really don't know what I was thinking there. I should have went with my first feeling which was to lay it down on the flop but then I got to thinking "Maybe I have implied odds?" and then, well, I really goofed up. Embarassed
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blah730235



Joined: 02 May 2008
Posts: 168

PostPosted: Fri Aug 15, 2008 12:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

On the flop I would fold most of the time but here's a situation I would have called the flop bet on...

- If van Broski had folded on the flop
- My history with jrm6692 leads me to think that a decent portion of his range is air
- jrm6692 will check to me on the turn if he has air
- I will bet almost any turn card if jrm6692 checks to me


By calling the flop bet if the above is true we have fold equity and show down equity. i.e. if he has air and he checks to us on the flop then we can take it down with a bet. If he doesn't have air and fires a bet on the turn then we can re-evaluate depending on the turn card.
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Soultwister



Joined: 19 May 2006
Posts: 429

PostPosted: Fri Aug 15, 2008 3:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
"Maybe I have implied odds?" and then, well, I really goofed up.


Well, thats the way to go about it. Make a play you are not sure about, review the hand, post it on forum if not sure...

That's how you improve, not by not making mistakes, but learning from 'em Smile
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