Deuce to Seven Triple Draw hand from WCOOP 6 game mix

[clabbers]

PokerStars Game #20253807290: Tournament #200800008, $300+$20 8-Game (Triple Draw 2-7 Lowball Limit) - Level IX (60/120) - 2008/09/08 18:03:41 ET
Table '200800008 79' 6-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: Endbringer22 (4275 in chips)
Seat 2: clabbers (10874 in chips)
Seat 3: Ian J (3950 in chips)
Seat 4: c Dannon s (4021 in chips)
Seat 5: Snout19 (3675 in chips)
Seat 6: thebighouse6 (3210 in chips)
Snout19: posts small blind 30
thebighouse6: posts big blind 60
*** DEALING HANDS ***
Dealt to clabbers [5h 7h Kc 4d Jd]
Snout19 said, "ya"
Endbringer22: folds
clabbers: calls 60
Ian J: raises 60 to 120
c Dannon s: folds
Snout19: calls 90
thebighouse6: folds
clabbers: calls 60
*** FIRST DRAW ***
Snout19: discards 1 card
clabbers: discards 2 cards [Kc Jd]
Dealt to clabbers [5h 7h 4d] [9d 3s]
Ian J: discards 2 cards
Snout19: checks
clabbers: checks
Ian J: checks
*** SECOND DRAW ***
Snout19: discards 1 card
clabbers: stands pat on [5h 7h 4d 9d 3s]
Ian J: discards 2 cards
Snout19: checks
clabbers: bets 120
Ian J: raises 120 to 240
Snout19: folds
clabbers: calls 120
*** THIRD DRAW ***
clabbers: stands pat on [5h 7h 4d 9d 3s]
Ian J: discards 1 card
clabbers: bets 120
Ian J: folds
Uncalled bet (120) returned to clabbers
clabbers collected 900 from pot
clabbers: doesn't show hand
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 900 | Rake 0
Seat 1: Endbringer22 folded before the Draw (didn't bet)
Seat 2: clabbers collected (900)
Seat 3: Ian J folded after the 3rd Draw
Seat 4: c Dannon s (button) folded before the Draw (didn't bet)
Seat 5: Snout19 (small blind) folded after the 2nd Draw
Seat 6: thebighouse6 (big blind) folded before the Draw

Out of position the stand pat on the second draw is risky, but enables me to find out here I am in the hand. When Ian J drew, I had all the information I needed.

[nsidestrate]

I am an unskilled TD player, but would check-calling the river be a better play?

[clabbers]

Drawing to 2357 would be my worst case, giving him 16 clean outs. I may get him to fold 9s with a bet, and not inconceivable he could make 10 or worse 9 and call.I thought he would miss more than half the time, therefore the bet would be EV. We can expect him to fold 12 pair cards and 16 A-J so I don't make money, just the tiny value of not showing my hand. Basically my idea was that I had to call one bet so might as well lead with it. I will lose a bet to reraise if he hits 4 or 6 and probably check down 8s or 9s.

I'm fairly new to the game too, but love the 8 game mix.

[jmbreslin]

In a heads-up pot I would like the pat there but with 2 villains that is incredibly, incredibly risky. The player I'm most worried about at that point is Snout, who called a raise predraw and then drew 1 on the first two draws. That means he's definitely drawing to something better than a 9, and he stands a good chance of hitting it on 3 draws.

[clabbers]

Worth noting that if I pitch the 9 I have a gutshot, hence four fewer outs. This, plus already having seen snout draw 1, inclines me toward the choice I took.

[jmbreslin]

So the question is: is your 9 more likely to hold up there than you would be to hit a 3 or 8 on one of the final two draws? I don't have the slightest clue how to calculate that.

[clabbers]

Well the worst case scenario I mentioned should help. Having drawn one, Snout cannot be more likely than 16/44 to be ahead. Having drawn 2 the previous round, it seems like twice the square of that fraction would be a good approximation for Ian - he needs the same outs twice, but thay can come in any order. That would be 36%+26% - a 5% overlap = 57%. I have made every effort to be pessimistic yet I still am leading nearly half the time.