counting odds right - turn?

[AlamedaMike]

Example -

I had K9s OTB - UTG+1 had A6s, no raise, 5 to the flop. K96 mixed. He bets and I raise after 1 caller, now HU - he checked/called and hit a 6 on the river. He did not even consider that he did not have the odds to call and they do it anyway. No fold'em hold'em. I don't think that the pot had 8 big bets on the Turn (5 outs), maybe 5.7 if I counted right. He was making a small error, a -EV call on the Turn. So he won 7.7 BB when he hits 1 time but loses 8 the 8 times he misses. He never considered that I might have a set and he was drawing dead. The times I have a set he loses more when I raise him on the river.

---------- is this right? --------------

5 saw the flop, sb folded $2.

The way I see this hand is that on the turn he checked and the pot now had 6 BB less the 1/3 bb rake ($4) and 1/12 ($1) bb toke or 5.7 BB.

5 outs is roughly 8.2-1, which means that you will miss 8 times and hit 1 time on average, so the pot should have what? 7 bb assuming that you will get paid on the river to break even.

So, I bet now the pot has 6.7, he calls so the pot has 7.7 bb heading into the river.

He hits the river and he bets. The pot has 8.7 bb and I pay him off the pot has 9.7 but 2 of those bets are his from the Turn and river.

So did he win 7.7 or 8.7 big bets? He won his own turn bet back?

I think that he won 7.7 bb for his turn bet and 8.7 bb for his river bet. The river bet is solid since I will only rarely have KK, K6, 99 here.

The turn call from him is slightly -EV? - correct?

[Bugsbunny]

I'd say more than slightly -ev. He's about a 9-1 dog on the turn. The exact figure will depend on what the turn card was, I just stuck a 3 in there.


Calculation results from Poker Calculator 1.1.4.1
Texas Hold'em, 264 combinations tested.

Hand 1:
Range of hands: K9s

Hand 2:
Range of hands: A6s

Board: Kc9s6d 3h x

Hand | 1 | 2 |
------+--------------+--------------+
Win | 234 | 30 |
Draw | 0 | 0 |
Lose | 30 | 234 |
------+--------------+--------------+
Win% | 88.64% | 11.36% |
------+--------------+--------------+


Hand no.1:
Two Pair win: 210 draw: 0 lose: 30
Full House win: 24 draw: 0 lose: 0


Hand no.2:
Pair win: 0 draw: 0 lose: 192
Two Pair win: 18 draw: 0 lose: 42
Three of a Kind win: 12 draw: 0 lose: 0

[AlamedaMike]

Thanks Buggs - That is very good - if he is 11% then the pot had 6.7 bb when he called and that is -EV - I was just wondering how we COUNT the turn bet. I was pretty sure it was as stated - the pot did not have 9 bb when he called ergo a big negative

at low limit most players do not bother to count the pot or even know the odds. They have a pair, they call.

I keep track of the pot and the odds and I still lose - go figure.