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cooler odds

 
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Able2call



Joined: 18 May 2006
Posts: 34

PostPosted: Wed Jul 18, 2007 10:09 pm    Post subject: cooler odds Reply with quote

My hubby was lucky to get a cooler here. I know that knowing the odds of this happening again make figuring out the odds of it happening obscure. but I'd love to know the odds of 3 PP filling up to fullhouses AND losing to quads 9 handed. If this is too stupid to ask someone to calculate I humbly apologize.

BB ($5.35)
UTG ($25)
UTG+1 ($24.35)
MP1 ($27.41)
MP2 ($5)
Hero ($26.16)
CO ($24.06)
Button ($5.15)
SB ($33.17)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with Q, Q.
UTG raises to $1.25, 2 folds, MP2 raises to $2.5, Hero calls $2.50, 2 folds, SB calls $2.40, 1 fold, UTG calls $1.25.

Flop: ($10.25) A, Q, Q (4 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, MP2 checks, Hero checks.

Turn: ($10.25) K (4 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, MP2 checks, Hero checks.

River: ($10.25) T (4 players)
SB bets $2, UTG calls $25 (All-In), MP2 calls $5 (All-In), Hero calls $26.16 (All-In), SB folds.

Final Pot: $67.25
Main Pot: $27.25 Pot won by Hero ($27.25).
Pot 2: $40,Pot won by Hero ($40).
Pot 3: $1.16, returned to Hero.

Results below:
UTG has Ks Kc (full house, kings full of queens).
MP2 has As Ah (full house, aces full of queens).
Hero has Qs Qd (four of a kind, queens).
SB shows (full house, tens full of queens).
Outcome: Hero wins $68.41.
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Bugsbunny
Wascally


Joined: 07 Apr 2004
Posts: 7622
Location: Drinking Carrot juice

PostPosted: Sat Aug 11, 2007 6:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The odds are slim :) And not really worth calculating. If exzactly 4 people got dealt unique) pocket pairs then there's only 32 combinations that would give the results you mention ( 1 combo of quads + 2 each for trips gives 2 * 2 * 2 = 8 combinations * 4 players (any of the 4 could get the quads) = 32 combinations)..

If all 9 people were dealt pocket pairs then there's 4032 possible combinations.

with the 9 people all dealt a unique pocket pair you have
4032/( (52-18) choose 5) = 4032/278256=0.0144902536

with only 4 dealt a pocket pair
32/( (52-8) choose 5) = 0.000029465713

Then you have to factor in the chances of at least 4 pocket pairs being dealt, and weight according to that. As an example the chances of 9 unique pairs being dealt to 9 players are very slim. About .0000000005%

So just realize that it's a very long shot and let it go at that :) I don't have the energy to figure it exactly.
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