Confused

[Zorro]

Raising/Check-Raising page 57 Question 1
$20-$40 You hold QdJd in middle position. A middle player calls and you call. The small blind calls and four players see the flop of Jh,Td,6s. The middle player bets. There is $100 in the pot. What should you do?
Answer Raise
[b]I just finished reading Odds and Probability's according to that you shoudn't raise here. 5 outs(3 Queens and 2 Jacks) 8:1, pot odds 5:1. So isn't this mathematically incorrect ? One chapter contradicts the next how do you tie it all to together (chapter to chapter) I realize in this hand you got top pair not bad kicker but the math is off.[/b]

[janeg]

[taz115]

You are quite likely ahead here and may not need to improve at all. You raise here to drive out the LP players and maximize the chance you can win this pot.

Where probabilities and odds can get confusing is when you start to integrate those ideas with other aspects of the game. Like "how often is my hand the best hand right now and is it susceptible to being outdrawn?".

In the above example you might estimate that your hand is the current best hand 75% of the time (in the heat of the action I never give an exact estimate, I might just estimate that my hand is currently best over half of the time). You can see that your hand is vunerable to over cards (A or K) because players are likely to limp in with weak A's or high card hands. There are also straight draw possbilities on the board.

So you want to protect your hand and limit the field. For this reason I actually like that the EP player bet so that I can make it 2 bets to go for the last 2 players in the hand. This should force out overcard hands and give them worse odds if they are trying to draw.

----

Your thinking is correct if we knew the EP bettor had KK and that we would have to draw to 5 outs, or even worse if the EP player had AJ and we are now drawing to 3 outs, but we don't know that in this example.

---

Another benefit of raising this hand is that you buy yourself information. If a LP makes it 3 bets and the EP calls, you might not like your hand as much. When the flop action gets back to you, you would be getting 12:1 to call the 3-bet. Even though you are fairly sure you are now behind, you are getting good enough odds to call and see if the next card improves your hand.

Matthew should be able to add some more context around the example. Hopefully at least some of that made sense.

taz115

[mchilger]

Zorro, in the example you are referring to, there is a good chance you have the best hand making a raise the right play. If you are looking at it from a Odds perspective, your raise makes it unprofitable for the next player to chase weak draws - i.e. you force him to make a mistake by calling.

Most of the hand examples in the limit section of Texas Hold'em Odds and Probabilities talk about hands where you are behind and need to improve.

Hope that helps, Matthew