Checking Turn to Induce River Bluff

[thew92]

I am working on the concept of Checking the Turn to induce a river bluff. I wanted to see if this is a good spot to use this play.

CO is 80/43/3.5

Poker Stars
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $0.50/$1
4 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (4 players) Hero is Button with
UTG raises, Hero 3-bets, 2 folds, UTG calls.

Flop: (7.5SB, 2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets, UTG calls.

Turn: (4.75BB, 2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks.

River: (4.75BB, 2 players)
UTG bets, Hero calls.

Results:
Final pot: 6.75BB

[Skrotnisse]

Against this opponent anything could be possible.

The problem with inducing a bluff in this hand is that there is no hand that you would 3bet an UTG raiser with and then fold after checking behind on the turn. And If I was the UTG raiser I would not bluff because of this. (though I might valuebet AK)

[janeg]

Not sure, but you may be giving up value in this spot thew.

If you run your hand and the board through StoxCombo using villains 43% PFR he'll have an Ace or worse roughly 61% of the time. If he will call a turn bet with a weak Ace then betting out may be the better option.

[thew92]

My biggest fear is I can't bet then fold to a turn CR. This villian would easily CR with any 6 or 2. Plus this guy is supper aggro he will bet the river 95% of the time if I check the turn.

[Willem]

I like the way you played this if villain is very aggressive.

In general, I would bet the turn here and check behind the river. If check-raised on the turn, I call down since there are not many reasonable better hands he could have (maybe 33,44 or A5). Once you get a read on villain, you might be able to fold to the check-raise. But initially, I like to call down as there are plenty donkeys who play something like QJ this way. When he is super aggro, he will probably bet most rivers and making a value check is a better option. Alternatively, if you like variance, you might even bet the turn to give him the chance to check-raise as a bluff.

It would be different if you are stealing from the button and the big blind defended. Now the pot is smaller and the ranges are wider. In that case, my default line would be to check behind and call most rivers.

[janeg]