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Check my math with regards to being dealt AA

 
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ciaran
ITH Support


Joined: 10 Sep 2004
Posts: 4781
Location: Alpharetta, GA

PostPosted: Wed Feb 27, 2008 2:47 am    Post subject: Check my math with regards to being dealt AA Reply with quote

Chance that no one at a 9-handed table will be dealt AA on a given hand:

99.548% (chance that an individual player won't be dealt aces) to the 9th power = 96% chance no one is dealt aces.

Change that no one else at a 9-handed table will hold AA if you've looked at your cards and you don't have an A:

Chance a particular other player will be dealt AA, 4/50*3/49 .49%, chance he won't be dealt AA therefore 99.51%

Chance none of the other 8 is dealt AA 99.51% to the 8th power = 96.15%

Chance at least one player has AA if you do not hold an A is then 3.85%.
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Bugsbunny
Wascally


Joined: 07 Apr 2004
Posts: 7723
Location: Drinking Carrot juice

PostPosted: Fri Feb 29, 2008 8:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Looks good

Nobody at a 9 handed table gets AA

(1320/1326)**9=0.960005374, or 96%

You have 2 non-ace cards in hands, there are still 6 possible combinations of AA but only 1225 total combinations (50 choose 2). 8 opponents so
(1219/1225)**8=0.961481507
0.038518493 = 3.85% chance at least 1 opponent has AA

You hold 1 A
(1222/1225)**8=0.980575273
0.019424727 = 1.94% chance at least 1 opponent has AA

You hold AA
(1224/1225)**8=0.993488016
0.006511984 = 0.65% chance you're facing another AA
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