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mconstab
Joined: 13 Dec 2005
Posts: 443
Location: Warwickshire, UK
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 Posted: Wed Jul 30, 2008 7:20 am Post subject: Check behind turn and play it WA/WB? |
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Villain is 38/16/1.3
I think looking back at this hand I should probably check behind on the turn and call a river bet. I show strength pre flop and he's also UTG so when he calls this flop bet an ace is certainly in his range. I hit the Q on the turn but could still be behind so I think a check to induce from a worst hand or lose less when I'm behind is in order here. If villain is peeling that flop with a smaller pair then the Q may convince him to fold where as If I check behind even If he decides not to bet his hand he may still call a river bet.
Full Tilt Poker $5/$10 Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter
Pre Flop: Hero is MP with Q  : K :
UTG raises, Hero 3-bets, 4 folds, UTG calls
Flop: (7.5 SB) 5  : A  : 7  : (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets, UTG calls
Turn: (4.75 BB) Q : (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets, UTG folds |
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Willem
2K Club
Joined: 16 Sep 2006
Posts: 2685
Location: Netherlands
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| Posted: Wed Jul 30, 2008 11:30 am Post subject: |
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This turn is an easy valuebet, as is the river if he calls. You lose 1 extra bet to Ax but win an extra bet against other worse pairs. If he got tricky and slowplayed the flop, tough luck. Just pay him and take his tendencies into account in future hands.
(Disclaimer: This turn is an easy valuebet for me. But my table image is probably a bit wilder than yours. If people view you are tight, checking behind may be better as you are unlikely to get 2 streets of value.)
Also, the 3-bet preflop is not automatic. KJs is a definite fold here and KQs probably is too against a xx/16 guy. If you were CO and he was MP, then the 3-bet would be automatic. |
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janeg
Regina Canada
Joined: 04 Oct 2004
Posts: 5234
Location: Somewhere down the crazy river
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| Posted: Wed Jul 30, 2008 11:51 am Post subject: |
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I know Stox recommends the turn value-check against aggro players and betting out against passives but I think this hand may the exception where it's better to check behind against a passive.
His PFR is 16% so say around 11% UTG
55+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,AJo+,KQo
He'll hit about 60% of his hands (55,77, any Ace)
and he'll have an underpair to Queens roughly 32% of the time. So 60% of the time you'll be subject to a ch/r and 32% of the time he'll fold the under pairs. About the only hand he might call down with is KK (3%) and there's a 10% chance he has KQ and may check-raise the T with it.
If that's the case, checking the Turn and betting the river is +EV if he'll call a bet with an underpair. You've still got a decision if he check-raises but if you check behind on the Turn and a rag hits the R he's much more likely to bet out with the 60% hands, in which case you can decide to call or fold. |
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mconstab
Joined: 13 Dec 2005
Posts: 443
Location: Warwickshire, UK
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| Posted: Wed Jul 30, 2008 6:06 pm Post subject: |
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| Willem wrote: | This turn is an easy valuebet, as is the river if he calls. You lose 1 extra bet to Ax but win an extra bet against other worse pairs. If he got tricky and slowplayed the flop, tough luck. Just pay him and take his tendencies into account in future hands.
(Disclaimer: This turn is an easy valuebet for me. But my table image is probably a bit wilder than yours. If people view you are tight, checking behind may be better as you are unlikely to get 2 streets of value.)
Also, the 3-bet preflop is not automatic. KJs is a definite fold here and KQs probably is too against a xx/16 guy. If you were CO and he was MP, then the 3-bet would be automatic. |
If I remember correctly villain had a pretty low WTSD% hence the reason I popped him with KQs.
Willem, If you get raised on the turn in this spot it sounds as if your still calling down. I think this is marginal with villains post flop aggression as I don't see him doing it with a hand we beat. It's going to show a lot of strength from our opponent after he was 3 bet from the hijack pre and an ace flops. Of course If I have a read then it's different and this is assuming villain plays a default style post flop.
After playing on the same tables as you the last few days I think the turn bet is certainly standard for you as your going to get called down light with your LAGish approach. I'm around 28/20 so it may be a bit more marginal as to whether I'll get paid off light. Also there's probably more potential for the opponent to play back at you on the turn due to what he perceives as a wider pre flop range. |
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Willem
2K Club
Joined: 16 Sep 2006
Posts: 2685
Location: Netherlands
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| Posted: Thu Jul 31, 2008 1:12 am Post subject: |
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Jane has a good point that villain doesn't have that many worse hands in his range, he raised UTG after all. This may be reason enough to check behind the turn. If the ranges are wider, like is a steal situation, the continue betting would have more merits.
Maybe a check is better after all. Gaining one bet at the turn & river is probably enough given the range villain is on here. |
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