chances of getting AA twice in a row

[toronexti]

is that just 220^2?

[nsidestrate]

Yes. But once you have already got AA, the odds of getting them on the next hand are still 1 in 220, just like any other hand.

[the_hawk]

Not that I'm one to disagree with the shark, but the answer is no.

The chances of getting AA on your next two hands is (1/221)^2. Which of course is what the shark said - but the answer to the question in the subject line is most definitely "no".

[seanof30306]

[nsidestrate]

[toronexti]

so it'd occur once every 48,841 hands?

[the_hawk]

[seanof30306]

You know, that's one of those probabilities I think just don't have any real world use in playing the game.

If you get AA two hands in a row, knowing precisely how long the odds were of that happening doesn't do anything for you.

When your opponent in the hand had AA the hand before, and is betting big this hand, that statistic is irrelevant and misleading. First, once he had AA the hand before, the odds of his having it this hand are 220:1, same as every other player at the table. The only difference is you know the SPI (Statistical Probability of Error) is at it's most reliable, since you know when the last time this player had AA was. That, however, doesn't change the odds of his having it in this hand one iota.

Second, knowing how long the odds are of another player having a better hand often tempts you to call, even when their every action is screaming that you're beat.. When I have QQ, raise preflop, and have someone come over the top for all my chips, I know the odds of their having AA or KK is 110:1, so a call would always seem the right thing to do. Why is it, then, that Doyle Brunson said: "Never call all-in with a Queen in your hand"?

My old uncle Elmo always said: 'If it looks like dogsh*t; if it smells like dogsh*t; if it squishes when you step on it like dogsh*t .... it's probably dogsh*t. And if it ain't dogsh*t, it's probably something just as bad."

I've had AA two hands in a row a number of times. I've gone over 2000 hands without seeing Aces. I've had AA three hands in a row, and lost all three times. I literally went from the chip leader of a tournament to out the door in three hands, and all three were Aces. You know what? It happens.

[FindingNemo]

Sometimes numbers are just cool.

I had pocket AA's three times in a row on Bodog not long ago. So that is 1 in 10,793,861? Wow, unlikely but apparently not impossible. Unlike Seanof, I won all three which made for a nice session.

[the_hawk]

[seanof30306]

The point I'm trying to make is, the odds of something like that happening are always going to be long. If you go by the odds alone when you suspect an opponent may have a monster, they're always going to drive you towards believing they don't have it. That can get expensive.

I'm known as a poker math guy in my casino. Pretty much every day, someone asks me: "What are the odds of ........?" Invariably, it turns out they want to know the odds of a bad beat they've taken happening to reinforce their belief that the player who drew out on them is an absolute moron. More often than not, though, the player asking me the question had a chance to get away after the improbable draw hit, but, didn't because they just couldn't believe someone would be so stupid to draw to it, ot that God could hate them so much, etc.

I've come to believe that almost all of those questions would be best answerd with another question: "Who is dumber, the idiot who draws to the one outer, or the idiot who pays that idiot off after it hits?"

[taz115]

I'm pretty confident toro is just asking for interests sake. Knowing something happens once every 50k hands has no practical application. But I was dealt K6o, 3 times in a row at the Wynn... it is interesting to think about the liklihood of these events.

[toronexti]

Actually I was just asking because someone asked me and I wasn't sure if I was doing the right math. I was slightly off in my math since I had done 220^2 instead of 221^2.

[checkmate]

Not sure what the odds are of this but I had AA twice in a row that turned into quads both times.

That was when I first started playing and I will never forget it. On the 2nd one a villian made the top straight and went all in.

Too bad it was at 2NL

[Bugsbunny]