Cardplayer article on effective implied odds

[jeffnc]

Matthew, read with interest your article on latest Cardplayer. Now here is a situation that I think fits with your ideas.

2005 WSOP. I believe the big blind is $200, and an amateur raises to $2,000 with AA (I think at this point someone, maybe Farha, comments that it's a very large raise.) I think his stack was about $8,000. Folds to Farha, who I believe is in the SB. (Someone correct any of this if it's wrong.) He calls with 33.

The flop is some raggedy crap like 7 3 2. IIRC, Farha simply goes all-in (he has the amateur covered at this point). Amateur thinks and finally calls.

What do you think of this? What does Farha think of the raise? He must obviously consider 3 basic scenarios:

1) Amateur has AK or AQ or some such (a possibility given the overly large raise), and Farha can outplay the guy after the flop if no A or K come.

2) Amateur has 88 or some such (another possibility given the large raise) and Farha can outplay him after the flop if an A or K does come.

(I have no idea how you'd distinguish between those since they are directly contradictory to each other.)

3) Amateur has AA, KK, QQ, or AK and flops A or K, and Farha flops a set and win with value.

For 3 you obviously need quite a parlay. First, Amateur must flop an overpair, or hit his A or K. Then you must hit your 3. Then you must be able to stack him. Even when all this happens, you are only getting 4x on your preflop call. So this scenario can't be profitable on its own.

How would you evaluate this situation? If you were in the amateur's shoes, what would you do? I'd have a hard time calling that all-in. I would know he wouldn't be doing it with KK. It's outrageously unlikely he has AA. What would Farha go all-in with here? It wouldn't be to knock me off AK. It could only be in the hopes that I've got AA specifcally. It can't be because he's got a hand like JJ and he's trying to get an amateur to lay down AA. Even if I've got KK I'd be worried Farha had AA so I might not call. His only possible holding must be a set.