Can you fold 777 here?????

[PigPen]

Bodog 10/25 FR
Saw Villain play 3 pots in 5 orbits. He's a solid player. He folded on flop in 2, won the third w/o showdown. I had played 3 pots as well though none against him, I folded all three - 2 to bets on the flop when I missed, and 1 when my CB was met with an OTT. Then I hit this set on the turn, I couldn't tell what he had but I got a sick feeling when he put me AI on the river. He doesn't have 9T that I'm sure. I figured most likely 88, AK, AQ, or AJ. But KK and AA are possible too. Do you call here with that sick feeling and hope you don't get stacked or fold it?

SB (?)
BB (?)
UTG (?)
UTG+1 (-)
MP1 (-)
Villain MP2 (89.00)
Hero MP3 (15.00)
CO (?)
Button (?)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with
1 fold, 2 call, Villain raises .90, Hero calls 90, 2 folds, BB SB fold, 2 call pot = $4.45

Flop: (4 players)
checks to me, Hero checks

Turn: (4 players)
checks to villain, Villain bets $1.60 Hero raises $3.40, 2 fold, Villain calls

River: (2 players)
Villain bets $20.00, Hero wtf???

[Shake_N_Bake]

What do you think the possibility of villain having a weak suited A such is A8, A6 or A3 would be? I am thinking about that and the possibility of 66. From the hands listed above you may be giving him to much credit.

[Damo_1]

I'd shove the turn, or at least raise much bigger to commit me to the pot regardless of the river card. As played snap call the river as lower sets, two pairs, an overplayed AK and complete bluffs are all in his range. Sure, he may have T9 or a slowplayed set with AA/88 but you only have about a pot sized bet left in your stack and have to call off ~$10 so it's a no-brainer imo.

[dankimball]

awwwww innnnnnnnn...easy shove

[emmapeel]

Hero has $11 or the size of the pot on the river so villains bet is just a pot sized bet. It seems to represent T9 as that hand makes sense with the betting pattern. I suppose a set is possible too and villain slow-played that till the river.

I'm certainly not folding a set here as villain could have a bluff in his range as opposed to a big hand. There are no possible flushes and only one likely straight. Not everyone would raise T9 pre-flop either so there are doubts about the straight.

AA or 88? I think these are possible although the betting looks a bit odd. I think losing to a higher set on this board is just bad luck especially with only a 60BB stack.

For me this is an easy call. I think we are well ahead here despite the pot-odds. Villain can have so many weaker hands and there are so few better ones.

EP

[emmapeel]

Card combinations can help here. It is good to know how likely a hand is here.

A set has 3 combinations so AA and 88 both have 3 each. T9suited has 4 so in total we are afraid of about 10 different hands.

AK has 12 combinations and so if you think villain is as likely to have played this hand this way as the others then this is already a very easy call as we are ahead. AK looks unlikely to me but there are so many other hands that are more likely that we beat.

EP

[blah730235]

[PigPen]

[PigPen]

[blah730235]

I don't really understand his reasoning for calling the turn and donking the river. He gives the part of your range a chance to suck out on him (and I see hero playing this way at least sometimes) while still extracting the same amount of value from hands that would have paid him off if he had pushed the turn.