Calling an all in reraise with 5's

[gp00053]

Looking for some opinions on what you would do with this hand. Hero is new to the table, has no reads on BTN.

Would you say that this is an easy call?

I'm thinking the preflop raise is okay, but once you're reraised you should fold. I say that because with any pair over 6's the 5's lose 80% of the time. On any Ace suited the 5's are about 55% favorited, on any two suited face the 5's are just under even and against any Ace Face offsuite to KJo the 5's are a bit better than even. Is there a larger range you could put villian on? I'm thinking opposite . What say you?

Full Tilt Poker, $10 + $1 NL Hold'em Sit n' Go, 100/200 Blinds, 7 Players
BB: 3,299
UTG: 2,260
UTG+1: 3,006
MP: 4,625
Hero (CO): 4,050
BTN: 1,995
SB: 7,765

Pre-Flop: (300) 5: 5: dealt to Hero (CO)
3 folds, Hero raises to 600, BTN raises to 1,995 and is All-In, 2 folds, Hero????

[jmbreslin]

Easy fold. For someone to push over your raise like that there is a good chance you're either way behind an overpair or a coinflip fav over AK, AQ. His reraise is large enough that you can't make the call on pot odds.

[ciaran]

It's 1395 to win 2895, 2.07-1, and pretty close to a must call (depends on the how low he'll go with pairs and how wide he'll go with Ax and other unpaired hands).

Which is, of course, why you shouldn't raise (at least not to 600) in the first place. If you make it 500, you'd be getting 2795 to 1495 which would be an easier fold. Add in that the effective stack sizes here are 10-20 BB (depending on potential villain) and the chances that you face a re-steal which will be a close decision but where you'll never be way ahead when you call, I'd just open-fold.

[gp00053]

[Zool1]

I agree/disagree with ciaran here (although I'm now way out of practice @ SnGs) - I raise with the intention of calling a shove from this guy.

As played you absolutely must never, ever fold here - your equity is like better than 50% against even the tightest credible ranges and you only need about 30% equity to call.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 51.777% 51.26% 00.51% 288796824 2889084.00 { 5d5h }
Hand 1: 48.223% 47.71% 00.51% 268773024 2889084.00 { 22+, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, A2o+, KTo+, QJo }

[gp00053]

[Zool1]

[gp00053]

[Zool1]

Because if you pass up situations like this - where calling is so hugely +EV - you're absolutely bleeding money. I mean, this isn't even for half your stack. I honestly can't make it any clearer - if you fold in this spot as played, you are costing yourself money. Fact. The only issue up for debate is whether it's worth more money to not raise in the first place - I seriously doubt it - but that's not what we're talking about. I'm saying "You have to call", you're saying "but I don't want to".

Also I wouldn't rely on Phil Helmuth for low stakes SnG advice - but in any case, you're warping that statement completely. What you're actually saying is "There is no such thing as being pot committed when you're about 50/50 and being offered 70/30." That's a long way from "if you know you're going to lose".

[gp00053]

[dktoller]

Let me try to clarify this a bit. It's counter-intuitive to call when you're behind, but there are certainly situations where it is profitable.

This is one of those situations. As ciaran pointed out the size of the initial raise has priced you into calling.
Assuming villian pushes the top 5% of hands or more (99+ AJs KQs AK). Very few are tighter than that on a short stack.

Putting him on a range isn't an exact science, and most of the time you don't have enough information to make anything more than a rough guess. This approach is still valuable though, as often just a rough range will make the fold or call decision quite clear.
So if you think he's tight, assign a tight range, that's fine. If you think he's only raising on JJ+, AKs then a fold is correct because you aren't priced in.

As for the Helmuth quote, this situation is a far cry from "knowing that you're going to lose".
If you run a bluff and have 9-high on the turn and he puts you all-in... that's when pot odds don't matter.
Here, you're often 55/45 and sometimes a 20/80 dog. On average how does this hand play out?

Assign a range, do the math (eg pokerstove), and decide whether a call can be justified on pot odds.
Then if the decision's close consider game strategy (your stack position if you fold/win/lose, bubble considerations/ICM, etc) and decide if there are compelling factors for or against making the call.
Simply being behind in the hand is NOT a compelling reason to fold on its own.

And no, I've never played with Phil

[Zool1]

Meh was writing a long reply but not wasting any more time giving advice to people who don't want it.

I will comment on the quoting issue though - I know it's a direct quote. But there's a big difference between knowing you're going to lose (which implies for starters that all the cards are out ) and knowing you're roughly even against someone's range.

/thread imo

[gp00053]

[cmd0518]

Call

[ImBetterDude]

If you're trying to pin your opponent on a hand you have to be realistic, and you really can't give your opponent that tight of a range. Put your self in his shoes for a second.

He's got an M of a little over 6, and I'm thinking Ace 10 + and maybe any PP would be good enough to push his stack, due to the odds that your raise was motivated by position instead of the strength of your cards. Q K might be enticing enough even.

Given that looser range, calling (with 2:1 odds, and a worst case scenario of losing half your chips) is a must.