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ambrosiaspen
Joined: 26 Apr 2006
Posts: 11
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 Posted: Mon Nov 13, 2006 11:50 pm Post subject: Bodog |
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| I dunno who plays on Bodog at all...but I just started a few days ago and something just doesnt seem right about there site... There are a LOOOOT of 2 suited flops and also a LOOOOT of pair flops. Check it out...maybe it's just me.... |
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rocketplayer
Sugar Daddy
Joined: 17 Jan 2005
Posts: 2741
Location: The market is a nightmare but I'm in cash!
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| Posted: Mon Nov 13, 2006 11:52 pm Post subject: |
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Yes Bodog is totally rigged.
Thank god they rigged it in my favor most nights
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ambrosiaspen
Joined: 26 Apr 2006
Posts: 11
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| Posted: Mon Nov 13, 2006 11:58 pm Post subject: |
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| im not even joking either...i sat down to play a session...and within 15 hands...8 of them were either 2 suited or a pair which flopped...consecutively... |
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rocketplayer
Sugar Daddy
Joined: 17 Jan 2005
Posts: 2741
Location: The market is a nightmare but I'm in cash!
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| Posted: Tue Nov 14, 2006 12:47 am Post subject: |
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| ambrosiaspen wrote: | | im not even joking either...i sat down to play a session...and within 15 hands...8 of them were either 2 suited or a pair which flopped...consecutively... |
WOW
That is some sample size, well beyond any question of standard deviation.
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keny326
Joined: 30 Jul 2004
Posts: 196
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| Posted: Tue Nov 14, 2006 1:43 am Post subject: |
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These things happen a lot even at live games.
I was just at a local cardroom yesterday and for the first hour or so every pocket catches a set by the river and the table saw three quads made with pocket pairs. I was joking around w/ my friend saying pocket pair will not lose and proceeded to cap ducks on the button with a big family pot. What do you know, I flopped a boat with 992 board and took down a huge pot.
Poker is surely a strange game and wierd cards fall all the time. It's pretty normal after you've played enough hands. |
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niin
ITH Software Programmer
Joined: 15 Jun 2004
Posts: 4485
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| Posted: Tue Nov 14, 2006 1:56 am Post subject: |
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Someone once said (paraphrasing) "Unlikely things are unlikely NOT to happen in the long run".
Play enough, you'll see just about everything happen. |
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fatshaft
Prodigal
Joined: 07 Feb 2004
Posts: 4754
Location: Warrington/Wolston, England (but Scottish!!)
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| Posted: Tue Nov 14, 2006 2:05 am Post subject: |
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| ambrosiaspen wrote: | | im not even joking either...i sat down to play a session...and within 15 hands...8 of them were either 2 suited or a pair which flopped...consecutively... |
The chances of a flsuh draw flopping are 55%, and the chances of the board shwoing an open pair are 17%, so you're right, Bodog don't actually have enough of these flops |
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ambrosiaspen
Joined: 26 Apr 2006
Posts: 11
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| Posted: Tue Nov 14, 2006 3:22 am Post subject: |
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Now I am very interested in numbers all of a sudden and the odds of cards falling. Where can I learn more about this?
I decided to do a little experiment..it's not big, but i will share the results with you.
I played a small session of .05/.10 NL Holdem
I sat down at the table with $10 Max buy in.
I just folded the hands losing blinds.
I saw 58 hands.
out of the 58 flops:
46 of them were suited
8 of them had a pair
and 4 hands had neither a pair or were suited.
(note: 4 of the hands were both suited and had a pair)
I managed to leave the table with $12.00 even playing the premium hands I received.
Anyway, its kinda interesting...
I must record more hands? Thoughts? |
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cybrarian
Retired Moderator
Joined: 05 Dec 2003
Posts: 11216
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| Posted: Tue Nov 14, 2006 3:59 am Post subject: |
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My first thought is that 58 hands is a very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very small sample size.
| Quote: | | 46 of them [flops] were suited |
What does this mean? At least two cards of suit x on the flop? |
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rocketplayer
Sugar Daddy
Joined: 17 Jan 2005
Posts: 2741
Location: The market is a nightmare but I'm in cash!
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| Posted: Tue Nov 14, 2006 11:27 am Post subject: |
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| ambrosiaspen wrote: | Now I am very interested in numbers all of a sudden and the odds of cards falling. Where can I learn more about this?
I decided to do a little experiment..it's not big, but i will share the results with you.
I played a small session of .05/.10 NL Holdem
I sat down at the table with $10 Max buy in.
I just folded the hands losing blinds.
I saw 58 hands.
out of the 58 flops:
46 of them were suited
8 of them had a pair
and 4 hands had neither a pair or were suited.
(note: 4 of the hands were both suited and had a pair)
I managed to leave the table with $12.00 even playing the premium hands I received.
Anyway, its kinda interesting...
I must record more hands? Thoughts? |
When you have 20,000 hands I might find it significant.
Gee I once was dealt 72x five straight hands at Bodog in 55 +5 Turbo(the truth). The cards must be fixed against clumsy CPAs. |
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the_hawk
Chelsea FTW!
Joined: 13 Jul 2005
Posts: 4313
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| Posted: Tue Nov 14, 2006 11:43 am Post subject: |
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Before you get too carried away with the small sample size argument, this is actually statistically "a bit more unusual" than most things based on 58 hands tend to be. Of course it's still not that unusual. 
There is roughly a 60% probability of any flop having two (or more) cards of the same suit. So we have:
N = 58
p = 0.6
(1-p) = 0.4
SD = SQRT (N*p*(1-p)) = 3.7
Mean = 0.6 * 58 = 34.8
So we expect 34.8 flops, and we actually get 46, with our SD = 3.7. We're almost exactly 3 full SDs above expectation. We are about 99.9% certain to get 46 or fewer flops out of 58 falling into this category; we would expect 46 or more flops out of 58 to fall in this category about once in every 745 runs of 58 consecutive hands. |
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rocketplayer
Sugar Daddy
Joined: 17 Jan 2005
Posts: 2741
Location: The market is a nightmare but I'm in cash!
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| Posted: Tue Nov 14, 2006 1:12 pm Post subject: |
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| the_hawk wrote: | Before you get too carried away with the small sample size argument, this is actually statistically "a bit more unusual" than most things based on 58 hands tend to be. Of course it's still not that unusual.
There is roughly a 60% probability of any flop having two (or more) cards of the same suit. So we have:
N = 58
p = 0.6
(1-p) = 0.4
SD = SQRT (N*p*(1-p)) = 3.7
Mean = 0.6 * 58 = 34.8
So we expect 34.8 flops, and we actually get 46, with our SD = 3.7. We're almost exactly 3 full SDs above expectation. We are about 99.9% certain to get 46 or fewer flops out of 58 falling into this category; we would expect 46 or more flops out of 58 to fall in this category about once in every 745 runs of 58 consecutive hands. |
I honestly don't even care about standrad deviation in a sample size this small. All of us have witnessed, what appeared to be, strange runs of cards on various networks.
I can't be the only one to have been dealt the same pocket pair three straight hands can I? If that was over 58 hands that were sure be beyond the standard deviation. |
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the_hawk
Chelsea FTW!
Joined: 13 Jul 2005
Posts: 4313
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| Posted: Tue Nov 14, 2006 1:42 pm Post subject: |
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| rocketplayer wrote: | | I honestly don't even care about standrad deviation in a sample size this small. |
Oxymoronic. You would seem to be conditioned to the idea that "small sample size is bad stats" and to have a fixed idea of what we mean by "small".
What the OPer saw is rather unusual - and SD is a completely impartial measure of just how unusual that is.
Of course it's less unusual than being dealt a PP three times in a row - but to say "wait for 20k hands" is just sloppy thinking. |
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nsidestrate
Suited's Love Monkey
Joined: 26 May 2004
Posts: 22397
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| Posted: Tue Nov 14, 2006 3:13 pm Post subject: |
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| the_hawk wrote: | | Of course it's less unusual than being dealt a PP three times in a row - but to say "wait for 20k hands" is just sloppy thinking. |
Well, yes. But he also reported 8 of 15 hands that were either suited or pairs (which is actually less than we would expect by chance). If you add them together, his true reported result is 54 out of 73, which is getting closer to what you would expect.
You should also consider that there may be some sample bias taking place here. What do you want to bet that if a neutral observer counted 100 hands, the result would be much closer to 60? I'd be willing to lay odds.
I do agree that this kind of thing doesn't require such a huge sample size. I would be quite shocked if 1,000 hands observed showed a 3 sigma variation.
The answer that should have been given to the OP is that he should be surprised when a flop is not paired or suited. The chances that a flop is either paired or suited are about 66%. When he sees a flop that is neither paired nor suited, that is the unusual event.
In fact, in his sample we should have seen about 10 pairs, so a pair count of 8 is actually low. |
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nsidestrate
Suited's Love Monkey
Joined: 26 May 2004
Posts: 22397
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| Posted: Tue Nov 14, 2006 3:28 pm Post subject: |
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| ambrosiaspen wrote: | | Now I am very interested in numbers all of a sudden and the odds of cards falling. Where can I learn more about this? |
You should probably look into a probability class at a local college. Here is the breakdown for two suited flops:
The first card obviously never makes a suited flop by itself, since there is only one card. The second card has a 12/51 chance to match the suit of the first card (23.5%). Assuming that the second card is a different suit, the third card has a 24/50 chance to match either the suit of the first or second card (48%). To get the combined percentage you multiply the probability of the second card missing times the third card hitting and add that to the second card hitting. Therefore, the combined probability is (.48 * .765) + .235 = .602 or 60.2% chance that the flop has two cards of the same suit.
The chance of a paired flop is (3/51) + (48/51 * 6/50) = 17.2%
The chance of either one appears to be (15/51) + (36/51 * 28/50) = 68.9%
Someone better at the math may correct me yet. |
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