Big bet on the turn and i hold AK

[Radford]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $200+$15 Tournament, 100/200 Blinds (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB (t9525)
BB (t10810)
UTG (t10250)
Rad999 (UTG+1) (t16010)
MP1 (t8490)
MP2 (t12450)
CO (t24050)
Button (t8540)

Preflop: Rad999 is UTG+1 with ,
1 fold, Rad999 raises to t600, 2 folds, CO calls t600, 2 folds, BB calls t400

Flop: (t1900) , , (3 players)
BB checks, Rad999 bets t950, CO raises to t2800, 1 fold, Rad999 calls t1850

Turn: (t7500) (2 players)
Rad999 checks, CO bets t8800, Rad999??????

No reads. It's very early in the $215 WCOOP Warm up.

[SpaceLord]

Top pair is probably no good here versus a sane better. I'd assume a set of 8s and would fold, and be angry.

[ImBetterDude]

I'm absolutely NOT FOLDING this hand. CO could easily assume you're making a standard continuation bet and is trying to play his position against you.

You then weakly check the turn (great play IMO) and bait him into a huge all in raise. Now seriously, put yourself in this guys shoes...do you really see him playing 88 this strong? I'm absolutely putting him at best on K Q. If you had a set of 8's on a board as uncoordinated as this, would you really normally shove against an unknown at this juncture?

The odds of him playing position and trying to out-maneuver you are far greater than him holding the only feasible hand that beats you...88. I'm calling in a heart beat.

[cowboyinexile]

[ImBetterDude]

I can appreciate your line of thinking, and maybe with the large stack this is a spot that you can let TPTK go. As played, I'm feeling like I have the best hand 90% of the time at least in this spot, and I'm never NOT looking for an opportunity to double up...even if I already have a healthy stack.

The only logical hand that has us beat in this spot is 88, and if the villain did in fact have 88 then I'd expect him to play it far less aggressively. Poker is very instinctual, and my gut's telling me that I'm getting played here...

Then again, I've never played a $200 SNG.

[cowboyfan]

The villian sure is playing this like he wants you to fold. I don't see me folding here. What hands would you play like this? I can't think of one. He's not building the pot, he's trying to shove you out. I'm calling and then cussing if he shows me a set of 8's, but I think you'll find TT, JJ, maybe QQ here a lot of the time.

[emmapeel]

The effective stack sizes are 80BB so top pair on the flop needn't be worth all my chips. Against a loose player it usually is but I assume there is no big read on villain.

At least the re-raise on the flop narrows villains range a lot. There are no draws possible at all and no sensible 2 pair hands. Villain could have a weaker king here or the same king and that is the hope. The big danger is the two low set's that villain might have.

I think I'm calling the flop too but re-raising again looks like a thought if you play the big stack or bust early approach.

On the turn why has villain overbet the pot. This would lean things towards another AK for me as 88 shouldn't bet so much. It's a lot to call to split the pot though.

This is a very good question and for me this is close. I think it is ok to fold here as it is hard to see villain having KQ here so we can't really win anything. Villain may have a set or got lucky with 98 which means I lose a very big stack.

Against a random opponent there is not much to be gained and a lot to lose so I'm going to fold. I won't critisize calling though as it is close.

EP

[ImBetterDude]

The turn ALL IN over bet after Rad checks doesn't sync up with a set of 8's to me. It just doesn't make any sense at all.

[emmapeel]

For me a set of two's is as likely as 8's

There are other factors to consider here. These are the two biggest stacks involved here which to me makes the chance of villain risking so much with KQ unlikely. Hero did raise early and so could also have AA here and after the call on the flop villain should fear this hand along with AK.

Then again this is early in an event which might have a lot of weak players in it. Players who may not see the stack sizes as a factor here and might think they are protecting their KJ hand against a flush draw with the big bet on the turn. I think Radford will be better placed to judge what type of tournament it is. I'm thinking it might be similar to the stars sunday warm-up which is soft.

Here, to continue the hand you are likely risking $13000 and the tournament when all that has been commited is $3000. To me the biggest hope is that villain has another AK but that only splits the pot and so there is little to gain at a big risk. This is the reason that I am folding here as there seems little to gain.

I agree that the bet by villain on the turn looks a little big and I would'nt exclude that villain is bluffing here with nothing.

I'm still folding but some information that I might be against a looser player who might have KQ or a bluff would make me more likely to call. (Commit all my chips.)

EP

[toronexti]

I see this as villian either thinking that Hero missed the flop and bluffing (like T9c) or hitting the flop somehow (say with 98s or a set). On the turn, he's definitely improved or already loves his hand. People do not shove the turn here with no draws.

Rad is telling the guy that he has a decent hand - something like 99-AA, AK - when he calls on the flop. Most of these hands have to fold to a turn push.

So I'd lean towards calling, but definitely expecting to be no better than a 80% favorite and most likely looking at something much closer to a flip.

[chrisjp]

I'm calling here with the info given. I'm calling for several reasons, and I'll try to list them in order of importance to me.

1) Warm up...means satellite winners are in this. If this were second chance then it's much more of a red flag.

2) It's early. Weak players are still around.

3) You have not indicated a hand this strong. Well you can have a hand this strong of course. But you can certainly be weaker.

4) Villain played this very fast on the flop, on a completely uncoordinated board. Why would he raise here with a set and not give the BB a chance to call. Why would he raise with a set to prevent Rad from maybe firing a second barrel on the turn. It's possible, it's definitely possible, but not probable.

5) When the decision is close then I definitely lean to increase variance.

I know one thing. I would be using my clock to OPR this guy for sure and would consider that as a major factor in my decision.

[Radford]

I called. And i regretted it as soon as i pressed the Call button (Obv ) He had 88.

The only reason i called here was because villians play didn't look like a set. Why overbet the pot with such a strong hand? Now that i think of it, i think he did that because i called his raise on the flop. Meaning he thinks i have AK and will call an overbet on the turn. If he was betting let's say something like 3k-4k on the turn i probably fold. But his bet is extremely large. If this was the second chance, which is full of strong players, i fold instantly. But this guy could be holding KQ/KJ or something.

[chrisjp]

He figured that with that uncoordinated board he would take a shot at raising and hope you had AK, or maybe BB has 22. Still, I'm not sure I like his play. He doesn't have to get all the chips in by the turn. He can wait to the river. And if you have nothing and fire a second barrel he gets those chips too. Plus if you have a weak hand on the flop, like KQ, but the turn is a K or a Q, then he's got you. But you probably fold that on the flop if he raises if you hold KQ.

If there were any draw on the board his play is defensible.

I'll repeat that I would check his OPR during the hand. It's a key stat that might get you off the hand. If he's a weak player though there's no way I fold.

Chris