Awesome laydown or idiot fold?

[Da_Big_Fish]

Didn't really have any reads on anyone. This is maybe the 10th hand dealt. Turn raises usually mean a big hand, right?

0.1/0.2 Limit Holdem
9 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($11.18)
UTG+1 ($7.96)
MP1 ($6.37)
MP2 ($3.40)
MP3 ($2.63)
CO ($4.02)
BTN ($2.21)
Hero ($4.72)
BB ($2.35)

Pre-flop: (1.5 SB, 9 players) Hero is SB
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, 1 fold, MP3 calls, CO calls, BTN calls, Hero raises, 1 fold, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP3 calls, CO calls, BTN calls

Flop: (13.0 SB, 6 players)
Hero bets, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP3 calls, 1 fold, BTN calls

Turn: (9.0 BB, 5 players)
Hero bets, UTG+1 raises, 1 fold, MP3 calls, BTN calls, MP3 says "zzzzzz", Hero folds

River: (16.0 BB, 3 players)
UTG+1 bets, MP3 calls, BTN calls

[Schlepper333]

Usually when there is action on the turn it means your top pair is not good. Besides you have two other other players to contend with. I know the pot is large but I like the laydown. This advice from SSHE might be helpful: When your hand can beat only a bluff and there are players behind you then you should fold even if you would have called HU.

[Da_Big_Fish]

It's gotten pretty lengthy at 2+2. I am adding the link in case anyone wants to check out the discussion.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/35/micro-stakes-limit/good-fold-idiot-play-329446/

[nsidestrate]

This is a very difficult spot because in general you don't ever want to fold in such a large pot. The pot already has 14 bets when you face the turn decision and seems pretty certain to get at least two more by the end. Let's call your odds 16:2. This means he (and the other callers) have to be on a semi-bluf 12% of the time. Since there is a decent chance that you have outs to a chop if the river is a ten, you probably really only need to see a pure bluff about 9% of the time. This is actually fairly close, but I think the fold is correct. If there were fewer players calling in between, I'd be more likely to call down. With four other players in the pot, the odds of a semi-bluff from UTG+1 go way down. On balance, I think the fold is correct, but you have to be careful not to do this in a lot of situations. This is nearly a perfect storm for folding an overpair.

I haven't read 2+2, but I'm going to guess the majority favors a call down.

[Da_Big_Fish]

You are correct. Most favor calling down. But I just don't see it, even if the pot is large, I am winning only a slim majority of the time. That's why I folded, but then second guessed it. So I posted it up.

I've already been jumped on in the 2+2 post because I posted the results after 3 pages of arguement. I thought that was enough posts to clearly get to the fact if this was a call or fold, but I guess I was wrong.

I have to say that at least at ITH, even if I would make some kind of posting faux pas you guys wouldn't just jump all over me.

I hate using 2+2, but there are some really good people there.

[Schlepper333]

[nsidestrate]

Normally, you really shouldn't fold an overpair in a big pot, even if you think that there is only a small chance you are winning. The only time you really seriously consider it is when the board goes four to a straight or four to a flush.

Interestingly, if the turn was a fourth diamond, most people would agree to a fold. However, there is very little difference. If the board goes four flush, there are nine possible flush cards. When the board goes four to a straight, there are eight possible straight cards. There really isn't very much difference.

I don't think calling down gives up a lot of equity, but on balance you are probably better off folding. Sorry you are taking heat on 2+2. That is the deal you make with them -- you get a lot more feedback and a lot of good players responding, but you have to take some abuse with it.

[nsidestrate]

I read the thread now and it isn't really that much abuse. The guy is telling you something important that you should take note of -- the actual cards that the other players had doesn't prove anything. So when you posted the bit about "knowing now that he had TT, don't you think it was a good fold" is bad thinking. The proper analysis is to figure out what percentage of teh time you are winning and what percentage you are losing and make the right decision accordingly. If you are losing 95% of the time and winning 5% of the time, it was a good fold. If you are losing 85% of the time and winning 15% of the time, it was a bad fold. The fact that the actual hand was one of the 85% or 95% or 5% or 15% doesn't prove anything. In fact, it makes things worse -- because you tend to imagine that the thing he had was even more likely.

[the_hawk]

I think the 2+2 thread is mostly fine. I think similarly about the fold.

[Misunderstud]

I think =4 let you off pretty light (for them) and, as nside says, the point made is valid and well worth noting.

I notice no one here has recommended checking the turn. Absent the foreknowledge that UTG will raise, what are the merits/demerits of that? Seems to me it might make the turn decision easier when it gets back to us, or am I just wimping out as usual?

One interesting(?) point about the hand as played is that no one reraised the turn (or raised the flop), so I'd guess that we stand a chance of being ahead of 3 players who are putting money in the pot. Plus we can outdraw made 2prs and sets (though, sadly, not both). I'm not quite sure exactly how this affects the maths, or even whether it applies here, but I remember reading a pretty cogent argument recently about how it can be profitable to pump the pot when there are several donators to us even when it's likely that we have the 2nd best hand.

[nsidestrate]

[Misunderstud]

[Fenris78]

Just one question: Why did you bet the turn in the first place? You got called in 4 spots on the flop and the turn puts up a 4 straight? The chance that you are behind now to 2pair or a straight or get drawn out on the river are so immense that you should not put more bets in the pot than necessary. You won't win the pot often enough now as the chance that you are behind is now so huge that you might be able to justify calling dow because of the pot odds, but you definitely can't bet for value anymore.

If you check and it gets bet and raised behind you, you got an easy fold. If you check and there is a bet directly behind you and 3 callers you can probably still muck your aces. Maybe if there is a bet and 2 calls and you can call closing the action I would not mind trying to get to showdown.

Overall I think check-folding is not terrible on this turn. It will cost you 2BB to see a showdown (and sometimes you will have to fold after putting in more bets because of further action and you won't even see a SD) so you are getting at best 15:2 on a call down, in fact way worse because of the time there is action after you called. You should be able to win at least 15% of the time you get to see a showdown, probably more often and I doubt you can expect your AA to be good here more often than 10% of the time.

So check and see what develops, i.e. where does a bet come from, how many callers there are and then decide wether you can expect your hand to hold up often enough on a showdown, but don't bet into a crowd on such a board.

[Misunderstud]

Great - another wimp! Nice to see you back on the board, Fen. I was getting concerned for you.

[the_hawk]