ATC blind defence against rock

[the_hawk]

I can't decide if this is more or less OK, middling to bad or truly abysmal. I have my suspicions...

Villain is a well-known high volume player, massive multi-tabler, plays rock-tight and is very predictable. I have him as 11/8/3 over a large sample. He can be pushed off hands; he is 25/55 WTSD/W$SD. My hand is crap but I'm thinking if the board's raggy and/or I catch a piece I may be ahead, and/or can get him off the hand. The flop is pretty good for me and then the fun starts. Comments so far and advice for the river?


PokerStars Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Preflop: Hero is BB with ,
4 folds, CO raises, 2 folds, Hero calls

Flop: (4.5 SB) , , (2 players)
Hero bets, CO raises, Hero 3-bets, CO caps, Hero calls

Turn: (6.25 BB) (2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks

River: (6.25 BB) (2 players)
Hero ?

[nsidestrate]

His flop action combined with turn check is either AK/AQ or a flush draw. If the river didn't bring home the flush draw, the river would be an easy bet/call because most of these guys will have to call AK after they checked the turn. Withe the FD coming home, I lean towards check-call in the hope that he is aggro enough to rep the flush draw even if he has AK. If he checks behind, I'm mad at myself, but I think that is probably the right line most of the time.

[the_hawk]

So are you happy with my line so far?

[Schlepper333]

* grunch and 'still learning'

I fold PF because I figure I am behind most of the time to this type of player's range. Pretty agro on the flop, but if you figure you can play the flop well and push him off his hand then great, but that's pretty gutsy with bottom pair and poor kicker. I like your style, though, and you do have a definite strategy and sound reasoning for playing this way.

I lead the river. You are behind only to the flush and if he raises then it's difficult. I might call because he might raise with over pair and never, ever put you on the hand you have. C/C the river would save a bet though, but I think you hare ahead often enough here to bet out. I may be wrong 'cause I don't know all the math.

[nsidestrate]

[nsidestrate]

[the_hawk]

[Misunderstud]

I can't find much to like about any of this, but surely the point of such contests in general is to piss higher than the other guy. For that reason alone I'd bet the turn. (What were you going to do if he bet?) If you think he can be pushed off hands, push him.

But let's step back a little to the flop. Because his hand range is wide, there's a good chance he has a weakish hand or draw that he'd like at least to take to the river in a blind-stealing battle - X9/8, JT, 77-66, 33-22, Ax. Just calling down can get expensive, so he tries for a free card by raising your opener. You reraise. What are his options for getting to the river with those hands now? If he calls, he must expect you to lead the turn, so he pays 1.5BB. If he caps, you're far more likely to check the turn, so he pays 1BB.

The check behind doesn't mean he has nothing, IMO. If you have what you're representing, you'll c/r, and if his hand is made but weak he won't want to bet yours for you. It probably means he doesn't have an overpair, but if he did and put you on a worse hand, he'd likely have called the flop 3-bet and raised the turn. He'll call a river bet UI with most of the hands I mentioned, and possibly with Ax too on this board, so I'd bet that too.

Of course, sometimes you'll be betting his hand for him on the turn and sometimes his draw has come in, but there are many possible scenarios, and if you're going to start defending 54o you're bound to get burned sometimes.

FWIW, I'd usually follow nside's line and c/r the flop. (I take no credit for that, since I'm just following his advice, but it does seem to make life easier.)

[the_hawk]

I'm pretty sure betting the turn is right. In the event I led the river and villain raised. What's my play?

[nsidestrate]

Even though his line looks almost 100% like a flush draw to me, I don't think I can find a fold. This is in part why check-call makes me happier on the river.

Given your rock tight, super-predictable read I guess you could fold, but just typing that sentence makes me feel ill.

[the_hawk]

[Misunderstud]

[nsidestrate]

[shallam]

Preflop.

I'm glad that you mentioned your read on this player. My original thinking was that a 5-4o is simply too weak. Ordinarily to justify playing a hand this weak you need to believe that you can significantly outplay your opp after the flop. You are an underdog to nearly every hand and your opp has the aggression hammer.

Apparently you have assessed the situation and believe you can overcome this deficit. Fair enough.


So let's see a flop !

YAY!


Flop.
Not a bad flop for you. Let's hope your opp has two big cards and not a big pair. I do like betting out here, which you do. I'm a little shaky on three betting. I suppose he might fold two unpaired cards --- thinking you have two pair or better. OTOH, if we are beat (which I think is about 50-50) we are spewing here. Also I wonder about 3 betting in light of the description of your opp ("rock-tight," "predictable"). You are playing this hand as if your opp is aggressive and deceptive.

FWIW, I slightly prefer calling the raise and then leading out as long as no ace pops off. Assuming a normal opp. With a rock I'd probably have to calculate odds. I would be playing the hand thinking I'm behind.

What was your rationale for 3 betting ?

His capping is a bad sign, but it's still possible he was trying to force a fold or earn a free card on the turn.

The Turn.

You check the blank, which makes sense given his aggression on the flop. His check behind makes me think he just might have two overcards. It is also possible, he has a modest pair and puts you on a bigger overpair or better.

There is an interesting mismatch between the play on the flop and the play here on the turn.


The River.

The 5 gives you a nice hand. While it's possible you've run into a flush, a set/full house, I think most likely you have the best hand and should bet.
Also I would bet here in case he put YOU on a flush in which case he'd likely check. This argues against a CR.

Looks like a clear bet here.

BET!

[shallam]