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AlamedaMike
2K Club
Joined: 29 Jun 2005
Posts: 2042
Location: Alameda, CA
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 Posted: Thu May 29, 2008 3:52 pm Post subject: AQo |
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1/2 LHE online FT - I am BB with AQo, fish raises first in MP - folded to button, a TAG on the button 3 bets, BS folds.
Do you raise, call, fold?
Why?
Raising might be good if the fish folds. Calling? Folding?
Thanks |
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nsidestrate
Suited's Love Monkey
Joined: 26 May 2004
Posts: 22457
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| Posted: Thu May 29, 2008 3:58 pm Post subject: Re: AQo |
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| AlamedaMike wrote: | 1/2 LHE online FT - I am BB with AQo, fish raises first in MP - folded to button, a TAG on the button 3 bets, BS folds.
Do you raise, call, fold?
Why?
Raising might be good if the fish folds. Calling? Folding?
Thanks |
Let's make two assumptions:
1) The TAG knows that the fish is a fish.
2) The TAG wants to have the fish to himself.
Given those two assumptions, the TAG should be 3 betting pretty wide here. If I was the TAG on the button, I'd be pretty merciless in re-raising the fish with a billion hands.
Once you reach these conclusions, you can pretty much rule out folding AQ at a discounted price. I also disagree with your assumption that raising to eliminate the fish is a good thing. That would leave you heads-up and out of position against a good player. In this specific scenario, I'm calling and I really hope that the fish hangs out with me.
The re-raise is not terrible, and I might consider it sometimes, especially if I think that the TAG is likely to be getting out of line with a lot of weaker hands, but my default position would be to call here. |
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AlamedaMike
2K Club
Joined: 29 Jun 2005
Posts: 2042
Location: Alameda, CA
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| Posted: Thu May 29, 2008 4:45 pm Post subject: Re: AQo |
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| nsidestrate wrote: | | AlamedaMike wrote: | 1/2 LHE online FT - I am BB with AQo, fish raises first in MP - folded to button, a TAG on the button 3 bets, BS folds.
Do you raise, call, fold?
Why?
Raising might be good if the fish folds. Calling? Folding?
Thanks |
Let's make two assumptions:
1) The TAG knows that the fish is a fish.
2) The TAG wants to have the fish to himself.
Given those two assumptions, the TAG should be 3 betting pretty wide here. If I was the TAG on the button, I'd be pretty merciless in re-raising the fish with a billion hands.
Once you reach these conclusions, you can pretty much rule out folding AQ at a discounted price. I also disagree with your assumption that raising to eliminate the fish is a good thing. That would leave you heads-up and out of position against a good player. In this specific scenario, I'm calling and I really hope that the fish hangs out with me.
The re-raise is not terrible, and I might consider it sometimes, especially if I think that the TAG is likely to be getting out of line with a lot of weaker hands, but my default position would be to call here. |
Thanks Nside - I posted this hand after the fact because I felt that my fold was in error and a reflex.
I thought about it then looked up the player stats (something I should have done sooner). I saw the MP was really a fish.
100 hands - cold calls the button 18% - VP$IP 40% and PFR 28% - I agree 100 hands is not much.
the TAG 239 hand VP$IP 14% - PFR 9% - cold call - 0%
Again 239 not much but enough.
I flop the nuts  but I folded.
I like your reasoning. In fact, I identified a weak player yesterday 2 seats to my right and I beat on him like a drum so I understand the TAG's 3-bet, now.
Calling is better since it protects the pot - BarryT and or Roy Cooke wrote about this. The presence of the weak player reduces the TAG's ability to run a pure bluff.
Thanks |
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Willem
2K Club
Joined: 16 Sep 2006
Posts: 2652
Location: Netherlands
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| Posted: Fri May 30, 2008 1:05 am Post subject: |
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| I wouldn't hate a fold if the fish only raises 2% of his hands, but if he raises 28%, a call is mandatory. I also agree with nside that calling is way better than capping. If you call, the fish can put in more bet postflop when he shouldn't (=more profit for you). And the fish is protecting the pot so the TAG must play much more straightforward, allowing you to make better decisions after the flop. |
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jeffnc
Mason's Favorite
Joined: 13 Jan 2004
Posts: 7222
Location: NC, USA
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| Posted: Tue Jun 03, 2008 9:42 am Post subject: |
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I don't disagree with anything that's been written yet, but I'm not as opposed to a reraise. There are some negatives to the fish fold, and some positives. One big positive is dead money - don't underestimate that. If the TAG is a thinker with a wide range, then you're punishing the TAG as well as the fish. Then you can exercise some pot control after the flop to the extent you can OOP, but there's an extra big bet in the pot to help out your bottom line. It also gives you some initiative. From the TAG's point of view, you reraise, the fish (who he wanted in the hand) is gone, and now you bet right out at him on the flop. He can't like that a whole lot.
For all the crap this hand gets (AQ), a lot of times it doesn't make a huge difference what you do. Folding is probably the worst option, but it's not horrible. At the end of the year, how much could this play possibly cost you? Especially considering how many times it will actually occur.
A call seems best to me too though. |
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AlamedaMike
2K Club
Joined: 29 Jun 2005
Posts: 2042
Location: Alameda, CA
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| Posted: Tue Jun 03, 2008 10:24 am Post subject: |
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Good analysis by all - this will not be the first hand that I misplay nor will it be the last.
I saw three bets from a TAG and I had AQo OOP - after reading the replies and thinking a call was most likely the best, followed by a raise. |
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