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Any merit in this kind of online strategy?
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Da_Big_Fish
1K Club


Joined: 09 Feb 2005
Posts: 1707
Location: West Virginia

PostPosted: Wed Jul 30, 2008 5:11 pm    Post subject: Any merit in this kind of online strategy? Reply with quote

A friend over lunch told me about someone he works with that employs this strategy. He has that the guy's bankroll is over $1000 because of it.

You go to a low limit no limit table, say .25/.50, and buy in for a short stack amount like $20. You wait until you get one of the top 5 hands and when you do you go all in. The guy that employs this says that starting with a short stack always gets you calls from bigger stacks. That's how he makes his money.

Apparently, this guys has started with $50 and made $1000 out of it.

What do you think?
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Cript
Cheesehead


Joined: 13 Feb 2004
Posts: 5072
Location: Milwaukee, WI

PostPosted: Wed Jul 30, 2008 5:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It's called "short stacking." and does work sometimes...Harrington mentions in his book that he employed this strategy when he was new to NL.

At any rate, it eliminates any post flop play and only allows you to win so much.

I imagine, though; that he'd be paying a ton of blinds, then taking a ton of blinds, then ocasionally doubling up with a big hand and ocasionally losing with a big hand.

I don't see an advantage.
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Taardvark
1K Club


Joined: 14 Feb 2007
Posts: 1057
Location: Fremont, CA

PostPosted: Wed Jul 30, 2008 9:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

There is some merit but $20 at a $50 buy in table is a little too much. You usually see this with $10 or $15 buy-ins at that level. $20 is a bit of an awkward stack size for the fold or shove strategy at this level.
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Cript
Cheesehead


Joined: 13 Feb 2004
Posts: 5072
Location: Milwaukee, WI

PostPosted: Wed Jul 30, 2008 9:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Taardvark wrote:
There is some merit but $20 at a $50 buy in table is a little too much. You usually see this with $10 or $15 buy-ins at that level. $20 is a bit of an awkward stack size for the fold or shove strategy at this level.


Yea...top 5 is a bit picky too.

If I short-stacked, I'd treat it like an MTT where my m was under 10
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Radford
2K Club


Joined: 06 Sep 2005
Posts: 2673
Location: Sheffield, England

PostPosted: Wed Jul 30, 2008 11:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I just can't see how this guy has made $1000 using this strategy Shocked
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emmapeel
2K Club


Joined: 05 Feb 2006
Posts: 2530
Location: Edinburgh

PostPosted: Thu Jul 31, 2008 2:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think the hands in question would be AK+ JJ+, which is 3% of all hands.

I think this is a very interesting strategy. It does mean that you will be playing only once every 3.5 rounds which is a little boring. Your push may not always be called too which will make it even more boring. Your hand must also make up for the numerous loss blinds when called.

On the plus side it means you can play much more tables so the plan only has to be slightly +EV to be better than a normal plan.

Too boring for me to try out but I can't see any obvious flaws yet as long as most of your opponents aren't paying attention.

EP
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Neilis
1K Club


Joined: 30 Aug 2005
Posts: 1126

PostPosted: Thu Jul 31, 2008 5:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

This would bore me to death, but I'm pretty sure it's a winning strategy at low stakes.
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ImBetterDude



Joined: 18 Jul 2007
Posts: 657
Location: California

PostPosted: Sun Aug 03, 2008 5:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Idunno about this. One time every 30 hands you go all in, and 90% of the time that you raise everybody folds and you win 1.5 blinds. 10% of the time you get called, and you're probably 75% to win on average.

Someone crank those numbers and tell me what size stack you would need to make the strategy +EV. It would probably be a stack that's large enough to discourage action even more.
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Soultwister



Joined: 19 May 2006
Posts: 428

PostPosted: Sun Aug 03, 2008 7:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I do not think it would well unless you use a shortstack's strength better, in a higher variance style.

Assume a standard scenario. You have A8s, some fish limps, some TAG/LAG player iso-raises and you jam because your hand is still ahead of iso-raisers range. Even better is that people call with all kind of trash, and while you will generally be a 60% favorite here, people will either make bad folds too often while they got the equity to call, or will start calling you down extremely light because they hate shortstacks.

I think good shortstacking can be decently profitable, but I still think most the money can be made postflop in NL, because the largest mistakes are made there. At the lowest stakes, people are so terrible at postflop play that I think buying in full and work your way up the normal way will be achieved much faster.
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Stew21



Joined: 03 Oct 2006
Posts: 996
Location: Orlando, Fl

PostPosted: Sun Aug 03, 2008 8:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Radford wrote:
I just can't see how this guy has made $1000 using this strategy Shocked


I agree.
Unless he's playing against different people everytime, they're going to catch on and all he would pick up are the blinds. Confused
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Taardvark
1K Club


Joined: 14 Feb 2007
Posts: 1057
Location: Fremont, CA

PostPosted: Mon Aug 04, 2008 3:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Radford wrote:
I just can't see how this guy has made $1000 using this strategy Shocked


At the lower levels you can get away with a predictable out-of-the-can ready made strategy and win. The big reason they win is a lot of players don't know how to play against them and tend to put in money with weaker hands because it isn't a lot of money for them so they gamble. So instead of coin flipping these short stacks are actually getting there money in rather good quite often against opponents that call with spec hands.

To win a $1,000 they probably have to flip somewhere around 100 times and get their money in really good maybe another 50-60 times.

If opponents played better against these guys this would definitely be a negative EV strategy. My strategy for playing against them is to make them play post flop whenever possible because most of them have zero skill there with this hit and run strategy. A lot of players hate having them at their tables but I don't mind at all. They spew chips as far as I'm concerned.
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Fumseck
Cannuque


Joined: 17 Jun 2005
Posts: 3295
Location: Quebec, Canada

PostPosted: Mon Aug 04, 2008 5:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Top 5 hands is not enough. The blinds will eat you up.

Shortstacking is discussed by Miller in Getting Started in Holdem. If you want to do this, I strongly suggest you read it.

It can be profitable but, as Neillis mentioned, it is boring.
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Taardvark
1K Club


Joined: 14 Feb 2007
Posts: 1057
Location: Fremont, CA

PostPosted: Tue Aug 05, 2008 12:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Here are a couple of examples from tonight on why these guys end up making money. It was beyond obvious these guys had pretty big starting hands.

PokerStars Game #19369742457: Hold'em No Limit ($0.50/$1.00) -
Table 'Pierretta V' 9-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: amazinmets73 ($118.50 in chips)
Seat 2: zo1216 ($79.20 in chips)
Seat 3: Giguere88 ($62.55 in chips)
Seat 4: thedacto ($28 in chips)
Seat 5: LakeEast2 ($100 in chips)
Seat 7: omahondo ($149.55 in chips)
Seat 8: gimo1 ($51.25 in chips)
Seat 9: T Aardvark ($80.95 in chips)
zo1216: posts small blind $0.50
Giguere88: posts big blind $1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to T Aardvark [Js As]
thedacto: raises $2 to $3
LakeEast2: folds
omahondo: folds
gimo1: folds
T Aardvark: calls $3
amazinmets73: folds
zo1216: calls $2.50
Giguere88: calls $2
*** FLOP *** [4h Td 3c]
zo1216: checks
Giguere88: bets $5
thedacto: raises $5 to $10
T Aardvark: folds
zo1216: folds
Giguere88: calls $5
*** TURN *** [4h Td 3c] [4d]
Giguere88: checks
thedacto: bets $10
Giguere88: calls $10
*** RIVER *** [4h Td 3c 4d] [5h]
Giguere88: bets $39.55 and is all-in
thedacto: calls $5 and is all-in
Uncalled bet ($34.55) returned to Giguere88
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Giguere88: shows [Th Ac] (two pair, Tens and Fours)
thedacto: shows [Ks Kh] (two pair, Kings and Fours)
thedacto collected $59.05 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $62 | Rake $2.95
Board [4h Td 3c 4d 5h]
Seat 1: amazinmets73 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: zo1216 (small blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 3: Giguere88 (big blind) showed [Th Ac] and lost with two pair, Tens and Fours
Seat 4: thedacto showed [Ks Kh] and won ($59.05) with two pair, Kings and Fours
Seat 5: LakeEast2 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: omahondo folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: gimo1 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: T Aardvark folded on the Flop

PokerStars Game #19370067375: Hold'em No Limit ($0.50/$1.00) -
Table 'Pierretta V' 9-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: amazinmets73 ($105.50 in chips)
Seat 2: zo1216 ($101.65 in chips)
Seat 3: Giguere88 ($55 in chips)
Seat 4: elion2703 ($15.65 in chips)
Seat 6: ilmercato ($57.40 in chips)
Seat 7: omahondo ($156.55 in chips)
Seat 8: gimo1 ($47.10 in chips)
Seat 9: T Aardvark ($107.35 in chips)
Giguere88: posts small blind $0.50
elion2703: posts big blind $1
MBZAMG: sits out
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to T Aardvark [Qc 9c]
ilmercato: folds
omahondo: folds
gimo1: calls $1
T Aardvark: folds
amazinmets73: folds
zo1216: folds
Giguere88: folds
elion2703: raises $14.65 to $15.65 and is all-in
gimo1: calls $14.65
*** FLOP *** [3c 9s 4d]
*** TURN *** [3c 9s 4d] [5c]
*** RIVER *** [3c 9s 4d 5c] [3s]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
elion2703: shows [Ts Ah] (a pair of Threes)
gimo1: mucks hand
elion2703 collected $30.25 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $31.80 | Rake $1.55
Board [3c 9s 4d 5c 3s]
Seat 1: amazinmets73 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: zo1216 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: Giguere88 (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 4: elion2703 (big blind) showed [Ts Ah] and won ($30.25) with a pair of Threes
Seat 6: ilmercato folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: omahondo folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: gimo1 mucked [Qh Js]
Seat 9: T Aardvark folded before Flop (didn't bet)
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el Pepe



Joined: 16 Jun 2006
Posts: 80
Location: Finland

PostPosted: Tue Aug 05, 2008 10:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I know few regulars doing this at NL50 6max and NL100 6max. Like Soultwister said, it's not just push fold depending on your own hand. If they push from utg its usually great hand. But they 3-bet more lightly from button or blinds if someone has limped or trying to steal. Over the small samplesize I have on them they seem to play profitable.
I think its based on that players call utg pushes too lightly when they have seen the shortstacker pushing from blinds with KT or A5. And its always minbuyin and if they double they change table.
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chrisjp
Mr. Lovable


Joined: 03 Jun 2004
Posts: 4993
Location: Round Rock, TX and Las Vegas

PostPosted: Tue Aug 05, 2008 10:57 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
...players call utg pushes too lightly when they have seen the shortstacker pushing from blinds with KT or A5...


Makes sense. This sounds like a bot could do it. Rolling Eyes
The best thing about live play is that your opponents can't look you up in Poker Tracker. Wink But believe me strange things happen even in a live game. I've never flopped a Royal online in my life, but I did at a WSOP prelim tournament. Wink
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