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simonjjj
Joined: 02 Dec 2004
Posts: 340
Location: WATFORD, UK
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 Posted: Tue Dec 26, 2006 11:24 am Post subject: Allin with small pr vrs 4 over cards... Am i an underdog? |
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I recently won a $55 dollar tournament and had one spot where i was 'forced' to move allin after having the short stack with 66. I got called by AKo and J9 suited. I hit a 6 on the turn and the rest is history  . Am i a underdog in this spot vs both players. I obviously know that against one opponent and am about 50% but what are the odds versus two opponents?? Cheers |
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rayrns
1K Club
Joined: 21 Jun 2004
Posts: 1004
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| Posted: Tue Dec 26, 2006 12:18 pm Post subject: |
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Would probably depend on if the suits overlap but according to Poker Stove using:
You:6c6d 31.7%
Op1.AhKs 36.2%
OP2: Js9s 32.0%
Ray |
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simonjjj
Joined: 02 Dec 2004
Posts: 340
Location: WATFORD, UK
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| Posted: Wed Dec 27, 2006 2:27 am Post subject: |
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| so i am an underdog then because i have about a 70% chance of losing? |
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toronexti
53o
Joined: 03 Sep 2004
Posts: 4171
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| Posted: Wed Dec 27, 2006 3:23 am Post subject: |
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| Your an underdog in terms of winning the hand. But your only a slight underdog if you consider that your putting in 33% of the chips and are winning 31.7% of the time. |
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seanof30306
Joined: 29 May 2005
Posts: 77
Location: Tulsa, OK
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| Posted: Thu Dec 28, 2006 4:09 am Post subject: |
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| toronexti wrote: | | Your an underdog in terms of winning the hand. But your only a slight underdog if you consider that your putting in 33% of the chips and are winning 31.7% of the time. |
Yeah, but that's a different concept.
The simple answer to the question is "yes", a pocket pair all-in against four overcards is an underdog; you'll win the hand less often than you'll lose it. You'd even be an underdog against 3 overcards; say, both of your opponents had an Ace and another unduplicated live card.
Looking at strategic play, there are a number of situations where it would make sense to put your chips at risk there, and many where it would not. The trick is to know when. Ha ha ha; it sounds soooo simple, doesn't it?
A buddy of mine called me the other day. He'd made it to the final table in a 230.00 buyin tournament at my casino. There were 8 players left. He was short-stacked (5x bb) and was in the small blind. A pretty loose player in early position raised to 3x bb, and a tight player in the cutoff re-raised all-in. It folded around to my buddy, who called, as did the loose player who'd raised originally.
My buddy had 44
The original raiser had QJ.
The re-raiser had AK.
My buddy lost the hand. He asked me what I thought.
I told him it was pretty close to a coin flip for me. While he could fold and see 6 "free" hands before the big blind hit him again, the antes would eat up 20% of his stack before that big blind got to him.
I told him I would've shoved all-in there in a minute If I could be the raiser, but, with a raise and a re-raise in front of me, and a rock being the re-raiser, the best situation I could hope for would be facing 3 overcards, which would leave me an underdog, and I could possibly be facing a bigger pair and two overcards, or even two overpairs. I said I would've laid it down, but, I couldn't fault anyone for choosing to gamble there on such a short stack, either.
He was pissed that I'd characterized his play as "gambling", and was adamant that he'd had the best hand, and had "gotten his money in good". True, but having the best hand before those 5 cards hit the board is a long way from being entitled to win, as so many people who get in these situations feel they are.
Now, in Simon's situation, he said he moved all-in with his 66. I'd be much more likely to make that play, knowing there's at least a chance of having some fold equity, and, if no one had raised in front of me, there'd be a better chance that I held the best hand at that point. |
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seanof30306
Joined: 29 May 2005
Posts: 77
Location: Tulsa, OK
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| Posted: Thu Dec 28, 2006 4:10 am Post subject: |
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sorry, it somehow posted 3 times
Last edited by seanof30306 on Thu Dec 28, 2006 4:16 am; edited 1 time in total |
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seanof30306
Joined: 29 May 2005
Posts: 77
Location: Tulsa, OK
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| Posted: Thu Dec 28, 2006 4:12 am Post subject: |
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| oops |
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simonjjj
Joined: 02 Dec 2004
Posts: 340
Location: WATFORD, UK
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| Posted: Mon Jan 01, 2007 11:52 pm Post subject: |
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| Cheers for that Sea you explain it well |
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