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Bullajami
Uber Squid
Joined: 03 Sep 2004
Posts: 8888
Location: Mrs. Bull's Doghouse
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 Posted: Thu Sep 18, 2008 5:29 am Post subject: AJo on a 3 flush turn |
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You hold   in the BB. no read on UTG+1.
UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls, SB completes.
flop is    . (4 SB)
you bet, UTG+1 calls, MP2 folds, SB folds.
turn is a  . (2.5BB)
you bet, MP2 raises, you call
river is  . (7BB)
you check, MP2 bets, you fold
did you do anything wrong? |
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the_hawk
Chelsea FTW!
Joined: 13 Jul 2005
Posts: 4448
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| Posted: Thu Sep 18, 2008 5:37 am Post subject: |
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| If you call the turn you have to call a blank river. |
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the_hawk
Chelsea FTW!
Joined: 13 Jul 2005
Posts: 4448
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| Posted: Thu Sep 18, 2008 5:57 am Post subject: |
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You also erred in playing in a game where someone can fold the flop then raise the turn  |
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nsidestrate
Suited's Love Monkey
Joined: 26 May 2004
Posts: 22651
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| Posted: Thu Sep 18, 2008 6:07 am Post subject: |
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| the_hawk wrote: | | If you call the turn you have to call a blank river. |
If the turn raise convinces you that you are behind, you can call the turn with 11 outs and fold the river when you don't catch. Having said that, I'm very sticky and I would probably call the river here. |
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Misunderstud
1K Club
Joined: 10 Jan 2006
Posts: 1683
Location: Here, stupid
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| Posted: Thu Sep 18, 2008 6:44 am Post subject: |
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Is there a value raise preflop?
| nsidestrate wrote: | | If the turn raise convinces you that you are behind, you can call the turn with 11 outs and fold the river when you don't catch. Having said that, I'm very sticky and I would probably call the river here. |
I've been thinking about turn raises a lot lately, since it appears that a big leak in my game is calling them with just a pair (without the pot odds to chase any draw that might also be present). Against many if not most players, I think I could safely fold even an overpair in these circumstances rather than paying 2BB to find out I'm beaten. This would be one such example, if the turn wasn't a spade. |
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the_hawk
Chelsea FTW!
Joined: 13 Jul 2005
Posts: 4448
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| Posted: Thu Sep 18, 2008 6:52 am Post subject: |
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| nsidestrate wrote: | | If the turn raise convinces you that you are behind, you can call the turn with 11 outs and fold the river when you don't catch. Having said that, I'm very sticky and I would probably call the river here. |
My bad, I missed that hero had the nut flush draw - but I don't think it changes much in terms of calling the river. |
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Schlepper333
1K Club
Joined: 07 Feb 2006
Posts: 1211
Location: Las Vegas
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| Posted: Thu Sep 18, 2008 8:17 am Post subject: |
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Grunch
I am a novice so here goes:
PF- depending on how the table is playing I might raise with this holding in the BB here. Because it was UTG that opened I lean toward calling.
I think if you are going to call the turn raise you have to call the river. |
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Willem
2K Club
Joined: 16 Sep 2006
Posts: 2685
Location: Netherlands
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| Posted: Thu Sep 18, 2008 9:01 am Post subject: |
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| I am not qualified to give advice on how to deal with turn raises in a full game. In the games I play, I would even call down AK and AQ here. |
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nsidestrate
Suited's Love Monkey
Joined: 26 May 2004
Posts: 22651
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| Posted: Thu Sep 18, 2008 9:34 am Post subject: |
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| Misunderstud wrote: | | I've been thinking about turn raises a lot lately, since it appears that a big leak in my game is calling them with just a pair (without the pot odds to chase any draw that might also be present). Against many if not most players, I think I could safely fold even an overpair in these circumstances rather than paying 2BB to find out I'm beaten. This would be one such example, if the turn wasn't a spade. |
Folding overpairs is very snug in this spot because semi-bluffs are very possible if they hold a high spade. The fact that you hold the Ace makes it interesting. It makes the Ace of spades semi-bluff impossible, but it also dramatically reduces the odds of the villain holding the made flush. If he has the slightest bluff/aggro tendencies, I probably would have to see his hand with TPTK and certainly with an overpair. As a general rule, if I can get to showdown for two more bets with an overpair, you'll see me there. Obviously, against the right rock, I could fold -- but I don't see those guys online much.
If the board didn't come a third spade, you'd be more willing to fold because the list of things he can be bluffing goes way down. If he could play KJ like that, you might have to call down, but you need to see a worse Jack or a bluff 29% of the time, which might be optimistic. |
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janeg
Regina Canada
Joined: 04 Oct 2004
Posts: 5181
Location: Somewhere down the crazy river
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| Posted: Fri Sep 19, 2008 10:15 am Post subject: |
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Think you can call the river
| Code: |
JJ-55,AJs-A9s,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,AJo,KTo+,QTo+,JTo
AJ 6 6 6%
KJ 8
QJ 8
J9s 2 18 33%
KT 8
QT 8
JT 4
JJ 1
TT 1
T9s 2 24 44%
Flush* 6 6 11%
-- --
Total 54
*Flush - possible 2 spade hands with a kicker >= 9
You're ahead of 33% of his range
On river
.33(9BB) - .67(1BB) = 2.97 - .67 = +2.3 BB
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Think you'd need to be 100% sure he'd never bluff or raise the Jack to make a fold profitable. |
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