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mconstab
Joined: 13 Dec 2005
Posts: 443
Location: Warwickshire, UK
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 Posted: Wed Jun 25, 2008 12:11 pm Post subject: Again unimproved overs... |
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And once again I feel I'm being too tight in these spots.
Villain is 70/22/2.8 with WTSD% of 44 after 110 hands.
Although the turn completes some draws and gives a pair to some of those draws I think I'm giving my maniacal opponent too much credit and have to at least see a river. I can easily have 6 outs to improve as well as currently being ahead.
Thoughts?
Full Tilt Poker $5/$10 Limit Hold'em - 5 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter
Pre Flop: Hero is BTN with A  : Q  :
2 folds, Hero raises, 1 fold, BB calls
Flop: (4.5 SB) 8 : 9 : 4 : (2 players)
BB bets, Hero calls
Turn: (3.25 BB) 6  : (2 players)
BB bets, Hero folds |
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Willem
2K Club
Joined: 16 Sep 2006
Posts: 2685
Location: Netherlands
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| Posted: Thu Jun 26, 2008 1:54 am Post subject: |
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I normally don't advocate calling down for information in 6-max., since you usually won't have enough opportunity to use the information. But here, if you will steal his big blind often, you will play many hands against him in position. Now, you might be able to use the information you gain in future hands.
So, I think you can call down here, even though it's EV- in a vacuum. You call down here also for information AND because you expect to be able to use that information in many future hands. But if the empty seat is between you and villain, folding would be best. Now, when the seat gets filled, you won't have as much opportunities to use the information.
I would still dump it on the river if a 7 or 5 comes there. |
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mconstab
Joined: 13 Dec 2005
Posts: 443
Location: Warwickshire, UK
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| Posted: Thu Jun 26, 2008 5:44 am Post subject: |
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| Willem wrote: | | I would still dump it on the river if a 7 or 5 comes there. |
And if a T or heart comes on the river are you still calling? I think I'd be inclined to fold. |
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ineedcash112
Joined: 25 Jun 2008
Posts: 27
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| Posted: Thu Jun 26, 2008 7:10 am Post subject: |
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people usually check behind on 4 to str8 or flush board on river if they hold merely a pair (even top pair), fear that u might hv the nuts, so if they keep firing i'd just fold the river. the 6c is a tough card for aq to continue with because it completes a str8 draw plus it gives a 7 an OESD, for me id only call 2 bets if some blank hits the river- i.e. non heart 3 or 2, otherwise im folding, cos if he bets into you on a J and K high board he's probably making a good value bet most of the time (hands like TJ or KT- though king ten is less likely). obv i raise the river if i hit an ace or queen.
so all in all, this turn card makes folding a good play since most of the time u cannot call a river bet as there are too many scary cards to come.
second I want to mention that this is not really a hu situation (6max table with 5 players I assume) so I'd give more credit to BB for a real hand. this maybe my leak but Im less inclined to find out if BB is bluffing in this particular hand. |
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Skrotnisse
Joined: 27 Oct 2007
Posts: 530
Location: Sweden
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| Posted: Thu Jun 26, 2008 8:37 am Post subject: |
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| oh, maybe I´m very leaky but I would call down against a player with these stats. |
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ineedcash112
Joined: 25 Jun 2008
Posts: 27
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| Posted: Thu Jun 26, 2008 8:58 am Post subject: |
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maybe, how about if we do a session review? just to improve our play from other people's comments.
i prefer hu but 6max is fine too. i can give advice to 20/40 and lower, no experience at higher stakes. |
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Willem
2K Club
Joined: 16 Sep 2006
Posts: 2685
Location: Netherlands
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| Posted: Thu Jun 26, 2008 9:13 am Post subject: |
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| mconstab wrote: | | Willem wrote: | | I would still dump it on the river if a 7 or 5 comes there. |
And if a T or heart comes on the river are you still calling? I think I'd be inclined to fold. |
Yes, I agree. With these cards, you are also not beating anything except for a total bluff.
| Skrotnisse wrote: | | oh, maybe I´m very leaky but I would call down against a player with these stats. |
I am convinced calling down here is EV-. The flop call is obvious with two overcards and your backdoor stuff. But calling the turn he is probably EV- when looking at the hand in a vacuum. Calling the river unimproved is even more EV-.
The only reason to call this down is to get information about what sort of hands villain donks. This information costs you money. To make calling down more profitable (compared to folding), you must somehow use that information to gain a higher EV in future hands. The big question here is: "Will your gain in future hands offset the immediate loss?" In 6-max, it usually doesn't. In HU, it usually does.
But I never said folding this turn is wrong. To be honest, I probably fold this turn too. You can always adjust and call down more if villain starts making donkbets very often. |
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ineedcash112
Joined: 25 Jun 2008
Posts: 27
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| Posted: Thu Jun 26, 2008 10:02 am Post subject: |
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| to sum up, fold this hand and find a better spot to exploit his tendencies/weaknesses |
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