AA, second round

[MrFixxiT]

I have AA on the button, 6 players left (elimination went fast). I have around t3000 as has the cut off, the other 4 are just below t1000.

blinds are 10-20.
cut off min raises to 40, I reraise to 120. All fold, except cut off who calls.

Flop comes 4s Jh Kh.

cut off bets 270, which is the pot.

Fold, call or raise?

[MrFixxiT]

Spoiler:

I folded the hand. I thought the chance of him having a trips with Kings or Jacks was too high, because he raised preflop.

I didn't yet know this, but I found out during the rest of the tournament: the cut off was a very loose player. He was pretty aggressive with the big stack too, but could make very loose calls with nothing.

If I knew this before then I should probably have shoved or not?

[ImBetterDude]

Push all in. If opponent has flopped Kings and Jacks, trip Jacks, or trip Kings, his pot-sized bet just wouldn't make sense. Also, opponent is going to push all in preflop 90% of the time with KK, so I think you can rule that holding out. This situation would be a bit more convoluded if you were playing a seasoned professional in a live game, where your playing styles are known to each other and he might be trying to throw a change up at you. In a low stakes online tournament, that just doesn't happen.

Think about what you would do. If you had JJ in your hand, would you bet pot to try to induce a fold, or bet less? Or would you most likely check? I certainly would. K J is more likely, but not likely enough to be folding. I'd be much more scared of that hand if he bet half the pot.

I'm putting opponent on K Q.

[MrFixxiT]

You're probably right that he would have acted different if he hold one of those three holdings although, at this level I see players do it like this; they just can't wait to get their money in or something.

But about him pushing all-in pre-flop with KK is not what I am seeing most of the time. All players have about 50 BB and the player in question and I have around 150 BB. Shoving a stack that big does not come often or someone else must have bet or raised already.

[ImBetterDude]

I just can't see KK playing the hand like that. I see him reraising again preflop, and I don't see him leading with a pot sized bet holding the nuts.

[ciaran]

Do you have the ? If not, the odds opponent has a flush draw go up.

You can't fold this flop. Against some opponents, calling might be better than raising (especially if you have the ), but by default I'd raise. What you do after that is also opponent/reaction dependent, but you'll have a much better idea of what's going on than you do after just his flop bet.

For the record, I'm most afraid of JJ/44 here. KK almost always 4-bets pre-flop. Good players will often lead sets here because of the drawy nature of the board, so that can't be ruled out. But, bad players will lead all kinds of things you beat and might well check things that beat you, so by default I'm inclined to go to the felt with this hand.

[MrFixxiT]

Going to the felt as in going all the way and risking your stack by reraising all-in?

[jmbreslin]

If you fold this because you're scared of JJ/KK/KJ, then you're playing too scared. You don't have a good enough reason to believe he's leading out with one of those hands. Remember, he doesn't know you have AA. He could have AK/KQ/AJ and think he's good here.

Because of the stack sizes I think it is largely irrelevant what you do here. If he's connected with the flop I don't think he's going to fold after leading out for 270, so it really doesn't matter whether you call him down or put him all in. You can't fold at this point, so I probably just raise enough to put him all in.

[jmbreslin]

[MrFixxiT]

He was the cut off and was around 3000 as well. Maybe I didn't say that well enough in my OP. He was actually the chip leader with about 100-200 more than me.
So it would be risking all of my chips. Does that change it in any way?

[ciaran]

[ImBetterDude]

This board isn't that drawy. If I have JJ or KK on a K J X flop, there is no way in Gods Green Earth I'm betting POT into one opponent. I can understand a bet of less than half the pot to induce a raise or sweeten the pot a bit, but a bet that size will scare your opponent off far too often.

I raise his pot sized bet of 270 to 800, and call if he pushes.

[ciaran]

[ImBetterDude]

I think you can take 44 off that list of possible hands as well.

[ciaran]