A question about odds

[fishiez]

Hi Guys,

I have been lurking here for some time but this is my first post. Great forum by the way.

I have noticed that different books seem to have different advice regarding drawing odds on the flop and the turn.

ITH suggests drawing odds with one card to come on the flop and then the same for the turn.

i.e. you have a flush draw on the flop so your odds of hitting that flush on the turn are 4.22 to 1 or 19.15 % OR you have a flush draw on the turn so your odds of hitting on the river are 4.11 to 1 or 19.57 %

I have no problem with understanding this or how to calculate odds etc

Where i become confused is when many other books, such as Phil gordons Little Green Book, suggest calculating the odds on the flop with 2 cards to come and then again on the turn with 1 card to come. He explains it as the rule of 4 and 2

so with the same scenario as above. The odds of hitting the flush with two cards to come is 1.86 to 1 or 34.97 %

Surely this makes a difference as when comparing to the pot odds the decison to call or fold could be different depending on which method you are using?

I am not great at math and odds so i appreciate that i could be misunderstanding something. Any help would me much appreciated.

Regards,

Chris

[taz115]

The reason ITH suggests considering your odds one card at a time is because it is difficult to know how much you are going to have to pay on the turn to see the river. If you only compare the bet you have to call on the flop to see the turn and compare that to the odds to making your hand with 2 cards to come you are ignoring any bets you might have to put into the pot on the turn. The result of that would be potentially calling too often.

If the pot is really big you might not need to worry about that because you are going to have the odds to call on the turn anyway.

If you are playing NL or a tourny, and you or your opponent are all-in you would definately want to calculate the odds for 2 cards to come because you will not be putting anymore money into the pot.

Hopefully that helps a little. Oh, and welcome to the forum!

[fishiez]

Hi Taz,

Thanks for your reply! That makes perfect sense, cheers for the explanation.

Doesn't this mean that the rule of 4 and 2 is actually the incorrect way of calculating odds? unless, as you already suggested, you are involved in an all-in confrontation on the flop.

Chris

[taz115]

Hmm, I wouldn't say that it is incorrect because it does give you the odds that you will make your hand by the time the river card is dealt. I might say that it is less applicable.

The way Matthew has laid it out also allows you to make one decision at a time instead of trying to estimate how much you'll have to pay on the turn. This is especially true when a pot is more than heads up and the other players are raising each other.

Also, when you apply pot odds street by street you will find times that it is correct to call a flop bet but incorrect to call a turn bet because of the increased bet size.