A hand that should be in one of Matthew's books

[jfletcher]

(I changed the title to get a little more action. )

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $30+$3 Tournament, 125/250 Blinds 25 Ante (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com



UTG+1 (t8777)
MP1 (t13955)
Hero (MP2) (t8609)
CO (t8220)
Button (t16128)
SB (t7346)
BB (t8569)
UTG (t30693)

Hero's M: 14.97

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with ,
3 folds, Hero raises to t750, 1 fold, Button calls t750, 1 fold, BB calls t500

Just a routine little blind steal. The two players in the blinds seemed to be fairly tight. I hadn't played a hand yet in a couple orbits at this table.

Flop: (t2575) , , (3 players)
BB bets t250, Hero raises to t1000, Button raises to t2500, BB calls t2250, Hero calls t1500

Wow, that's sort of a good flop. I don't give much credence to the BB's bet, so I raise him. Now the button raises me. I'm getting ready to fold, but then the BB calls so now I have huge odds, plus a lot of outs. How many outs do you think I really have here though? Thinking button could have a set already, and a flush draw may eliminate some outs.

Turn: (t10075) (3 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, Button bets t7500, 1 fold, Hero calls t5334 (All-In)

Now the poker gods have given me way too many outs to fold. I don't think I have a choice but to let my tourney life roll on this one. Thoughts?

River: (t20743) (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: t20743

[maf66]

Despite the enticing odds, I don't like the call to the flop reraise. However, I am quite passive in those spots so others may disagree.

[jfletcher]

[jfletcher]

On the other hand, do my implied odds help make the flop call right, even if I adjust to only say, 5 or 6 real outs?

Even though I don't know which outs those are and I may lose all of my chips if I hit the wrong one?

[jfletcher]

Let me ask this another way...

I think that, given the various ranges of my opponents, the odds I'm getting (5.5 to 1 expressed odds, and implied odds much higher) and the outs I have, it is probably just slightly +ev for me to call the flop reraise.

However, is this one of those times when -- because it's a tournament and not a cash game -- you need to pass up a borderline situation in the interest of chip preservation?

I think this is a pretty interesting hand. I'd love to hear more responses.

Another sub-issue: When figuring your implied odds, how do you account for the fact that some of your outs may have a reversed implied odds affect? For example, in this case if one of my opponents has 55 and I hit my 7, that'll give me 2 pair and the opponent a straight, so I'll lose much more than if I missed entirely. Do you just figure all those questionable outs will cancel each other out and go with the expressed odds?

[jfletcher]

Over at =4, a guy also makes a compelling case that I ought to push the turn before the action even gets to button. There's a chance that, if he's also on a draw, he'd fold, or if he just has one big overpair, he'd fold.

I think he's right.

[Cript]

I make the button for an overpair here more often than anything else...probably folding the flop raise.

[jfletcher]

[taz115]

I don't hate the way you played it tbh. I can see some value in pushing the turn if your going to call his push anyway (and I am). I think in real time I'd probably play it pretty close to the way you did.

You could call the flop bet to keep the pot smaller and see how your hand develops... but it is so mini compared to the pot I'd raise there fully expecting to knock out the button and quite often the BB too.

I think your right to fold the flop reraise if the BB doesn't call you as well but after he does I'm pretty sure you have odds to call there. I'm certainly not putting the BTN on only a set at this point although it is definately a strong possiblilty.

[Cript]

[cowboyfan]

[toronexti]

I think you should have raised the flop to ~1.5k and not been in this situation. As played I think it's fine.