A float gone wrong? (25nl)

[kingme620]

Villain has tried to steal my blind before by betting the same amount. So I was pretty confident I was ahead. I still think he's trying to steal here.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed)
UTG+1 ($23.65)
MP1 ($24.25)
MP2 ($6.65)
MP3 ($26.50)
CO ($24.15)
Button ($42.85)
SB ($29.35)
Hero ($29.85)
UTG ($4.30)

Preflop: Hero is BB with , .
7 folds, SB raises to $1, Hero calls $0.75.

Flop: ($2.10) , , (2 players)
SB bets $1.3, Hero calls $1.30.

Turn: ($4.70) (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $3.3, SB raises to $11, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $11.30

[emmapeel]

I think I'm going to call pre-flop too. I always find it hard to judge what people are raising with here. Are they raising a big range because only two players are left or are they raising a tighter range as they have a big hand and don't really consider the player situation so much? I think AJ should be ok for a call here though.

On the flop I think the call is ok too. We suspect that villain is aggressive and it could be that we have the best hand. We also have two overcards to draw to even if we do not have the best hand. And if Villain does have something then we could still be able to bluff later if we thought that would work.

On the turn I think I like the attempted bluff too. Villain has checked to indicate that he may have nothing so a stab at the pot can't be bad. One problem is that villain raised pre-flop and is liable to have big cards that may have hit the king. It does seem like a good bluffing card though so I might go for the bluff despite the risk.

After getting check-raised it looks like villain may have hit AK after taking a stab on the flop. I'm folding this too.

EP

[Taardvark]

In a blind versus blind situation with a known stealer I am reraising this. If he is stealing he could have a very wide range of hands. I want him to have to define his hand some here. Its very likely we have the best hand and if we don't and he has a smallish pair we might paralyze him some and get a free turn card if the flop doesn't help us.

[Soultwister]

I like your play here up till the turn. On the flop you can have the best hand and this board is just great to cbet for villain. So assume for the moment he is an average TAG, he will cbet here with 100% of his range. Folding here would be the worst option I think, but I like the call.

On the turn, I do not hate your play, but when reviewing this hand history, you may want to ask yourself with what hands you want to bet on the turn when checked to?

Good hands to bet on the turn are hands that are never ahead when called, or hands you are betting for value. Here, your hand is very likely to be best still and a bet only serves for protection of your hand.

A better play in my mind would be to just check the hands on the turn which you think may still be best, but cannot be bet for value, and bet the hands which you are sure are behind when getting more action and strong hands.

This is because you may be wanting to float villain more often in the future, and want to know more about his tendencies on the turn. If he checks here and you bets with air and he folds you got a nice floating target, and if you check here, he checks or bets a blank river, you get more info as well after checking behind or calling.

In short, I think your hand is best here most of the time, and I would check behind and call most river bets depending on river card.

I really think if you decide to just flat call preflop instead of 3betting, you have to target villain's bluffing range postflop and play it accordingly. Because of that, I really see very little value in betting the turn when checked to.

[Soultwister]

Just one thing though regarding Taardvark's comment. This is definitely a spot where the standard play is to 3bet preflop for value and to charge opponent for playing OOP vs you. Calling here preflop is actually close to slowplaying, so if you do so, you want to be sure you exploit him postflop.

[Taardvark]

[emmapeel]

Villain has only raised the blind once before so I don't think it is a huge read that villain is loose. I would adjust my future play a bit but not a lot.

Checking the turn is interesting though and might be the better play. What is the plan though? Is it to just hope we check down the best hand on the river or are we planning to call a bet on the river and use the hand as a sort of bluff-catcher?

I see the point about our hand being to weak to value-bet but too strong to bluff but the king looks such a good card to bluff with here. I think I'm still undecided about what the best play is here.

Putting SB on a range is also difficult here. A8+, 66+ QJ+ maybe? If this is the case then the hands we are trying to bluff villain off are 66-88 and A9/ AQ. That's not a lot. The hands we are currently ahead of are: A8,AT, QJ. Again this is not a lot. The hands that are ahead that are unlikely to fold are: 99+ AK, KJ+. Maybe this is the biggest group.

The above is very rough but things still look a bit unclear to me. The King on the turn has hit a lot of likely hands though so maybe a check is the best play.

EP

[Scully]

IU'd be tempted to 3 bet PF here. The SB sounds a bit like me in that once I get a sniff that the BB is not one to protect his blind I'll go after it with ATC until they play back at me.

A PF raise to £3.50 or $4 should be enough to take it down PF with no risk, or to get you some information to narrow his range if he calls. I think if he 4 bets you can safely get away from the hand.

I like the 3 bet not just to take down this pot, but also to bring the SB back in line and to protect future blinds and so enable you to see cheap flops in the BB going forward.

Personally I wouldn't need a hand anywhere near as strong as AJ to take this line as the cards are pretty much irrelevant for this move.

Incidentally, do you have his attempt to steal percentage from Pokertracker?