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MXRider
Slim Shady
Joined: 19 Jul 2004
Posts: 4981
Location: Have it your way!
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 Posted: Wed Mar 12, 2008 11:10 am Post subject: 99 sandwiched between a 3 better and cold caller |
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Button was loose/passive running at 43/5/1.2 over 37 hands and SB had been much more aggro but had been showing down solid hands when I saw them. He is at 42/30/1.5 over 40 hands
Now, MX has a decision. SB cold calling here has me concerned a bit and I think that I'm in a coinflip w/ button at best currently, but feel pretty confident I can stack if I hit, hence my pf call. No set, no bet I'm going into this flop.
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)
SB ($33.20)
BB ($25)
UTG ($23)
MX ($81.05)
CO ($5.20)
Button ($25.85)
Preflop: MX is MP with 9 , 9 .
MX raises to $0.85, 1 fold, Button raises to $1.45, SB calls $1.35, 1 fold, MX calls $0.60.
PF call here I think is fine on pot odds alone or am I out of my mind to think about folding here cuz I did think it once SB just cold called the re-raise.
Flop: ($4.60) T, Q , 7 (4 players)
SB checks, MX checks, Button checks.
Turn: ($4.60) 9 (4 players)
SB bets $3, MX?
Now, KJ just got the nuts, but I really don't know enough about sb yet to think he is loose enough to call cold OOP w/ KJ. Yes he has been active, but he's been getting hit with the deck too. What's your play here? |
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Zool1
1K Club
Joined: 07 Apr 2004
Posts: 1266
Location: Crushing Pre / Spewing Post
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| Posted: Wed Mar 12, 2008 11:38 am Post subject: |
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Think I make it $10, folding to a shove from either. Assuming button folds, SB calls, and the river is a brick I'd call any reasonable SB lead and almost certainly make a thin vb if he checks, folding to a raise.
I'm really not 100% sure though... |
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nsidestrate
Suited's Love Monkey
Joined: 26 May 2004
Posts: 22650
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| Posted: Wed Mar 12, 2008 11:51 am Post subject: |
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| I guess I'm eventually going to lose a lot of money at NL, because I'm way more fearless than you guys. I'm raising and I don't know that I'm folding ever. I guess I might, but I'd hate myself. |
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mash_tun
Joined: 10 May 2006
Posts: 976
Location: CT, USA
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| Posted: Wed Mar 12, 2008 12:13 pm Post subject: |
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| nsidestrate wrote: | | I guess I'm eventually going to lose a lot of money at NL, because I'm way more fearless than you guys. I'm raising and I don't know that I'm folding ever. I guess I might, but I'd hate myself. |
LOL at you limit players...so eager and willing to make mistakes since they only cost a measly 1-2BB***...heh heh heh
**of course, those 1-2BBs are bigger than the current NL stack size I play... |
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mash_tun
Joined: 10 May 2006
Posts: 976
Location: CT, USA
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| Posted: Wed Mar 12, 2008 12:17 pm Post subject: |
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Seriously, though, I think I call-behind here...villain may indeed have a straight, but with those stats, if you hit your boat, you'll very likely stack this aggressive villain. Even if you miss, I'm calling any decent bet on the river...
Calling the turn also allows you to see how BTN will respond to SB's donk-bet
I'm not 100% sure I agree with my own line here...I'm going to re-read it in a bit and see if I disagree w. myself! |
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kinnipak
Suicide Squeeze
Joined: 11 Jun 2005
Posts: 873
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| Posted: Wed Mar 12, 2008 12:22 pm Post subject: |
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given the numbers you quoted, I am going to see the river. Call and move in on river unless river is 8, K, or J.
He could also be sitting on 77.
regardless, I have to see the river. |
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nsidestrate
Suited's Love Monkey
Joined: 26 May 2004
Posts: 22650
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| Posted: Wed Mar 12, 2008 12:32 pm Post subject: |
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| mash_tun wrote: | | LOL at you limit players...so eager and willing to make mistakes since they only cost a measly 1-2BB***...heh heh heh |
I've been playing a fair amount of NL600 and NL400. I'm up a little in both. I really don't want to fold a set before the river because even if he does have KJ, I've got outs. If I got chased off by QJ or JT or T9 or 77, I'd be really unhappy. My instinct is that you would fold to a shove then you shouldn't raise. |
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royze1
McLovin
Joined: 16 Jan 2005
Posts: 2093
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| Posted: Wed Mar 12, 2008 12:54 pm Post subject: |
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I think your PF call is a little thin, especially since you are giving away position. You're going to be stuck check folding a huge percentage of flops or spewing to overpairs in low flops when they CB.
Against a better opponent I think you have to fold as he's likely to be 3 betting you with hands he won't be paying off when you do hit your set. Can you 4 bet 99? I wouldn't here but there are times I do.
Against a loose passive they'll likely have about what you think and likely pay you off, so in this instance I think your call is ok I guess.
I'm not sure how a guy OTB 3 bets and doesn't CB that flop. That feels all wrong to me. Small 3 bets from fishy players=AA-QQ and a check on a flop that he 3 bet PF=set. I'd still raise the turn to make sure and if he raises I'd fold or if he calls I'd bet the river and fold to a raise.
With your stack size I'd probably be more inclined to gamble a bit, but this hand feels all wrong to me. The betting sequence feels like flopped fish nuts, that either got run down or SB has something like JJ and is looking to see where he is and still have outs. Maybe BTN has JJ, yeesh I'm all mixed up now. Forget it I'm not folding to either of these two...ship it. |
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Zool1
1K Club
Joined: 07 Apr 2004
Posts: 1266
Location: Crushing Pre / Spewing Post
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| Posted: Wed Mar 12, 2008 12:55 pm Post subject: |
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| nsidestrate wrote: | | mash_tun wrote: | | LOL at you limit players...so eager and willing to make mistakes since they only cost a measly 1-2BB***...heh heh heh |
I've been playing a fair amount of NL600 and NL400. I'm up a little in both. I really don't want to fold a set before the river because even if he does have KJ, I've got outs. If I got chased off by QJ or JT or T9 or 77, I'd be really unhappy. My instinct is that you would fold to a shove then you shouldn't raise. |
This was what I started to think too - if you consider hands like T9s and 97s to be in his range - I see players who consider themselves tricky and aggressive calling small 3-bets pre with these hands for sure - and that he'd be willing to 3-bet you on the turn with these, calling behind is better.
The reason it's a tricky spot is because it's not immediately obvious how weaker hands will respond to a raise; but on the other hand, you'd probably be happy to take it down right here.
One thing's for sure though - I'm definitely not committed to this hand, so I guess I should probably be calling rather than raising, looking for pot control and a showdown. Yuch. |
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Zool1
1K Club
Joined: 07 Apr 2004
Posts: 1266
Location: Crushing Pre / Spewing Post
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| Posted: Wed Mar 12, 2008 12:59 pm Post subject: |
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| royze1 wrote: | | I think your PF call is a little thin, especially since you are giving away position. You're going to be stuck check folding a huge percentage of flops or spewing to overpairs in low flops when they CB. |
Pre flop is totally standard imo - I would never, ever 4-bet here and folding is total madness. Hero's closing the action and getting like 40:1 against the button and better than 50:1 implied against the SB - you don't need to stack someone very often for calling here to be wayyyyy profitable. |
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MXRider
Slim Shady
Joined: 19 Jul 2004
Posts: 4981
Location: Have it your way!
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| Posted: Wed Mar 12, 2008 1:05 pm Post subject: |
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| royze1 wrote: |
I'm not sure how a guy OTB 3 bets and doesn't CB that flop. That feels all wrong to me. Small 3 bets from fishy players=AA-QQ and a check on a flop that he 3 bet PF=set. I'd still raise the turn to make sure and if he raises I'd fold or if he calls I'd bet the river and fold to a raise.
blahblablahblah
Maybe BTN has JJ, yeesh I'm all mixed up now.. |
This about sums up my complete thoughts on this hand. SB cold calling pf then button not cbetting really confused me all the way around, then SB leads out?
Continuing onward.............I need to find out something about what my opponents might have and I figured a raise here would tell me almost instantaneously.
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)
SB ($33.20)
BB ($25)
UTG ($23)
MX ($81.05)
CO ($5.20)
Button ($25.85)
Preflop: MX is MP with 9, 9.
MX raises to $0.85, 1 fold, Button raises to $1.45, SB calls $1.35, 1 fold, MX calls $0.60.
Flop: ($4.60) T, Q, 7 (4 players)
SB checks, MX checks, Button checks.
Turn: ($4.60) 9 (4 players)
SB bets $3, MX raises to $10.75, Button folds, SB calls $7.75.
Ok, so now we have lost the 3 bettor, but SB leads into me on the turn then flat calls my raise????? |
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mash_tun
Joined: 10 May 2006
Posts: 976
Location: CT, USA
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| Posted: Wed Mar 12, 2008 1:14 pm Post subject: |
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OK, I had some lunch and gave this another look...I think calling is horrible here.
| royze1 wrote: | | I'm not sure how a guy OTB 3 bets and doesn't CB that flop. That feels all wrong to me. Small 3 bets from fishy players=AA-QQ and a check on a flop that he 3 bet PF=set. I'd still raise the turn to make sure and if he raises I'd fold or if he calls I'd bet the river and fold to a raise. |
Doesn't this line from someone with 43/5/1.2 also reek of a whiffed AK? This guy is probably not betting any flops unless he hits them. I'm not saying that you don't need to worry about AA/KK/QQ, or a set, but my gut is that he's worried about MX and the SB villain, since they both called his 3-bet and the flop hits many hands in that range...
This is one of the reasons why I'm renegging on my call...you'd hate to give BTN holding AK a cheap card and a chance to close the action, then see a jack float out on the river....
| nsidestrate wrote: | | I've been playing a fair amount of NL600 and NL400. I'm up a little in both. I really don't want to fold a set before the river because even if he does have KJ, I've got outs. If I got chased off by QJ or JT or T9 or 77, I'd be really unhappy. My instinct is that you would fold to a shove then you shouldn't raise. |
BTW, I was reading your blog last night, so I know that you're "dabbling" in 600NL and 400NL  Cool stuff...
I agree that SB could be donk-betting here with a wide range of hands that we're beating and hands that we may be behind but have outs. Especially since you and the BTN checked the flop and seem to be scared of it. Given his stats, I could see him leading out with a pretty wide range. So, I'm raising here. I think I bump it up to around $15-18, maybe even up to $20, and if he pushes OTT of that, I'm still calling, since I'll be getting about 5-1 to call a push...
I stoved one such scenario:
Board: Qs Td 7h 9c
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 61.825% 61.83% 00.00% 1741 0.00 { 9d9h }
Hand 1: 38.175% 38.17% 00.00% 1075 0.00 { QQ-TT, 77, KJs, QTs, JTs, T9s, KJo, QTo+, JTo, T9o }
I
I think you could tweak the range a bit, but it doesnt change the fact that you have substantial equity here...
Jeff |
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mash_tun
Joined: 10 May 2006
Posts: 976
Location: CT, USA
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| Posted: Wed Mar 12, 2008 1:24 pm Post subject: |
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| MXRider wrote: | | Ok, so now we have lost the 3 bettor, but SB leads into me on the turn then flat calls my raise????? |
He's either slowplaying his straight or 77,TT, QQ set, or calling with his mid/top pair + draw, or his 2pr. Regardless of what comes on the river, I think you have a tough time folding to a push (if he pushes), since you'll be getting about 2.5-1 (I think). Maybe you could find a fold if you don't boat, but I'm not sure, especially against a villain that seems to be pretty aggro (granted, it;s a small sample size).
Jeff |
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doubleup
Joined: 21 Mar 2004
Posts: 346
Location: Redding, California
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| Posted: Wed Mar 12, 2008 1:32 pm Post subject: |
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I agree with everything nsidestrate has said.
| Quote: | My instinct is that you would fold to a shove then you shouldn't raise.
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On this specific hand I'd play it exactly like you did on the turn - I'd definitely be willing to call an all-in bet on the river regardless of what card hits. |
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nsidestrate
Suited's Love Monkey
Joined: 26 May 2004
Posts: 22650
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| Posted: Wed Mar 12, 2008 1:40 pm Post subject: |
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| At this point, we pretty much have to call a river shove, I think. I guess if the river is a Jack and he shoves I could probably find the fold button, but even then it would make my teeth hurt. The question is what to do when he checks to you. Could he be weak enough to check QQ or TT? He's obviously going to shove the nuts. If you shove behind him, will he call with two pair? I'm pretty sure he'll call with 77. I'm pretty sure if he doesn't put it in the middle, I'm going to. |
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