65,000 Guarantee

[ImBetterDude]

Was railing the final table, down to 4 players.

UTG has 250,000 chips. Blinds are 6,000/12,000. He raises to 36,000.

BTN has the same size stack, just calls. Blinds fold. About 100,000 in the middle.

FLOP: A 9 5 rainbow.

UTG checks, BTN bets 24,000, UTG calls. 150,000 in the pot.

TURN: 4

UTG checks, BTN bets 85,000, UTG maxes, BTN calls. UTG had A 4 for aces up, an BTN had 9 9 for a set of nines which held.

My questions are:

1. Why BTN didn't re-pop preflop with 9's. Is it standard to just smooth call with the stacks, blinds, and player count as it is? Seems 99 is strong 4 handed. His M is 11, but it's short handed so that would decrease that number to like an effective M of around 7 or so right? The table was active, somoene was always raising, and I'd think the standard move would be to reraise...but maybe I'm mistaken.

2. Once BTN called and spiked a set, wouldn't you check behind the UTG player? The board was totally uncoordinated, and the only way he would make money with his 99 by betting is if UTG had an ace. Why not check the flop and bet the turn if UTG checks again?

3. After the probe bet was called by UTG on the flop, was it that obvious after the turn check that UTG had the ace? BTN bet 85,000...essentially pot committing himself...seemingly knowing that UTG had the ace. How in Gods name did BTN know he had it? I would have played this set of 9's so much slower...

Let me know what you more experienced MTT players think.

[toronexti]

UTG is never check/calling the flop here unless he's hit this flop (most likely an Ace), ocassionally you might see KK-TT play it this way but it's just so bad that I wouldn't worry about it.

3-betting PF is fine, calling is OK. I almost always lean towards 3-betting.

If you check behind after UTG on the flop you're rarely going to get any value out of your set. If he's checking cause he has something like QJ and is afraid to con't bet he's gonna fold regardless of turn. If he's checking cause he hit the flop and wants you to bluff he's always calling/raising.

If you check behind in scenario 2 then what do you do if he checks again on the turn? Do you bet or check? Well if you think he's got absolutely nothing you should check, but then you give him a chance to outdraw you potentially when he does have nothing for free, and you still get no value.

If he bets into you on the turn your options are to call or raise. If you raise it's obvious you've got a serious hand, if you call you're not getting enough money in the middle. By betting the flop you get the initiative without him knowing what you have since a bluff is very likely there (which is why he checks in the first place), so when he does have something you're much more likely to stack him.

Personally, I would tend to bet like 40-50k here, just because I think people identify the smaller bet as stronger.

[cowboyfan]

I personally would have played the whole hand much faster. I'm a much more aggressive player as the tables shrink and if I'm in the hand (excluding some good reads) it's getting raised or re-raised.

He had ~21 BB's pre-flop which is the perfect re-steal stack. I'm shoving pre-flop behind the raiser unless I have some VERY specific read not to.

As played I'm not checking behind on the flop. If he doesn't have any Ace, you're probably not getting any more money in the pot anyway. Plus, since I've probably bet when checked to in this situation before (aggressive style), then I'm definitely doing it here or else it will set off bells.

Answer 3 is yes CO obviously has a hand that's worth paying someone big money. BTN bet 85K into 150K. It's a pretty standard bet for this size of the pot when he check/called the flop bet. BTN knows that the CO has something and you want to get the maximum out of your big hands when you have them.

If I'm the BTN, then I'm thinking very hard about shoving the turn as I think it looks weaker to most players and will get you paid off the maximum when CO does have a hand.