$60 - Fun with JJ

[ciaran]

Both villains are regular multi-tablers, and while I don't have actual numbers I'm sure both are winners.

Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t300/t600
(Ante: t50)
3 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
Button: t5500
SB: t5580
Hero: t2420

Pre-flop: (3 players) Hero is BB with
Button raises all-in t5450, SB raises all-in t5530

And Hero???

[janeg]

Wouldn't you just fold here?

[maratea]

I am guessing that a call is (marginally) +ev.
Your in the money - now play for 1st prize.

[jman14]

From the numbers you give, I'm guessing this is a nine man SNG. I am not familiar with that structure but assuming a similar payout structure to a Ten man SNG (50%, 30%, 20%) I did some rough ICM calculations.

Your equity after folding will probably be about $175.

Your equity for calling and winning would be about $220.

Of course your equity for calling and losing is $108.

So by folding you gain $67.

By calling and winning you gain $112.

Therefore you have to win about 60% for these dedcisions to be close.

So the question becomes, are we winning with JJ at least 60% of the time? In this spot I don't think we can be much better than that against the SB (since he has seen a push and come anyway) let alone both so I think I am folding here.

[ciaran]

I figured I'd have to do the math myself at some point, but that's basically correct. I think I got a hair less than 60% when I did it originally, and JJ doesn't have it versus sane ranges for villains. As it turns out, it would have been very close, since villain one had 22 and villain 2 had A4o

Running like am though, I would have finished 3rd by calling, since villain one made a heart flush on the river.

[dktoller]

Is this even close? My gut says fold and walk into second.

Your stack is in bad shape and you've basically been handed second-place on a platter.
IMO "play for first" doesn't apply here because you are risking so much (otherwise guaranteed) equity by entering this hand.

Would expect SB's call to be tight here given the stack sizes. But how wide can BTN open? Has to expect you to call somewhat wide, right (assuming SB folds).

I think you need a stronger hand to call this. JJ won't fair well three-handed, good chance there are at least two overs given the action.
You need to be consistently way ahead to enter this pot. KK+.

[suicide-jack]

fold. you just lucked out by moving up in the money and now you can goto work on 1st.

-jacob

[doubleup]

I'm folding this too. Let the 2 larger stacks go at it.

[Schlepper333]

WIZ says this a fold:

With button opening 16%, SB calling 8%:

push eq: 29.34%
folding eq: 32.45

The only hand that calls here is AA.

[ciaran]

[Schlepper333]

[ciaran]

[cmd0518]

Fold and wait for a better spot.

[poker_Elmo]

I call this post-bubble. I call any pair down to maybe 88 or 99.

If only one of the two was pushing, I call any pair.

[ciaran]