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3-outer?

 
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Damien



Joined: 30 Jun 2008
Posts: 456
Location: Donk Betting the Flop

PostPosted: Mon Sep 08, 2008 9:01 pm    Post subject: 3-outer? Reply with quote

I was on the fence about this one, and I've recently decided to fold when I'm on the fence, but I wanted to take another look at this. If button has a ten here, I've only got 3 outs (the other 3 tens), which is still not the nuts, or even the nut straight. But if button doesn't have a ten, I've got 10 outs (which need to be discounted a little because I don't really want to see a club either). I didn't think leading out was a great idea, just because the board is so coordinated and I certainly don't mind a free card. Of course button has position here and could easily be taking a shot at the pot (which worked). Should I have called?

Full Tilt Poker
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $0.50/$1
9 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is UTG with Jack of Spades Ace of Hearts
Hero raises, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, 2 folds, Button calls, 2 folds.

Flop: 8 of Diamonds 9 of Clubs 6 of Clubs (9.5SB, 4 players)
Hero bets, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, Button calls.

Turn: 7 of Hearts (6.75BB, 4 players)
Hero checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, Button bets, Hero folds, 2 folds.
Uncalled bets: 1BB returned to Button.

Results:
Final pot: 6.75BB
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teknique



Joined: 13 Sep 2006
Posts: 84
Location: UK

PostPosted: Tue Sep 09, 2008 6:02 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

With 3 others seeing the turn, I think you're either behind here or someone will draw out on the river to beat you a significant portion of the time. with two to a flush and four to a straight on the board, your overcard outs are practically worthless. you're drawing to 2-3 non nut tens (depending on if villian has a ten, and if the ten he has is the club), and so the fold seems sensible.

I'm not sure about the flop bet either, I think I would have check/call here against 3 opponents, but I would definately bet HU, more likely bet with 2. You just aren't going to fold 3 people on this board.

In this specific hand, it may be possible that he is just having a stab with position and somehow noone has anything worth continuing, but it's also possible he has JTs or a set (66, 77, 88, 99 all possible cold calling hands for a 0.5/1 player that have you in trouble) and was hoping you'd bet so he can raise. In general you have to fold here where you did I think.
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Misunderstud
1K Club


Joined: 10 Jan 2006
Posts: 1684
Location: Here, stupid

PostPosted: Tue Sep 09, 2008 7:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Fold preflop.

Yes, really. In EP, AJo is a limp or fold hand. If you raise, you only get called by better As and fold worse ones. If you operate a no-open-limp policy, this is always a fold in EP 1st in. (If you're happy to open limp you could do so here on a passive table, but limping UTG often elicits a raise anyway; I never play AJo UTG, though I'll always call a limper in the other EP seats.)

You've missed the flop, so check and fold. Leading into 3 opps with A high won't accomplish a great deal and this is one of the few occasions where a c-bet isn't obligatory. Check/call isn't awful, but overcards on a co-ordinated board . . . not much EV there IMO.

Turn: maybe just about callable on a rainbow board and last to act but here, nah, I don't like it much.

Folding on the fence is sensible, but I think you were on it much earlier in this hand than you realized.
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Damien



Joined: 30 Jun 2008
Posts: 456
Location: Donk Betting the Flop

PostPosted: Tue Sep 09, 2008 8:23 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks Mis, tek... maybe you're right and I need to cross AJo off of my list of playable EP hands (I rarely, if ever, open limp). I also need to think about my c-bet policy, I'm afraid it is hovering right around 100% at the moment. Definitely a couple of things to look at.
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Misunderstud
1K Club


Joined: 10 Jan 2006
Posts: 1684
Location: Here, stupid

PostPosted: Tue Sep 09, 2008 8:55 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Damien wrote:
I also need to think about my c-bet policy, I'm afraid it is hovering right around 100% at the moment.


That's about where it should be. Wink
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teknique



Joined: 13 Sep 2006
Posts: 84
Location: UK

PostPosted: Tue Sep 09, 2008 8:57 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Misunderstud wrote:
Fold preflop.


hehe I was actually thinking I didn't like this raise, but I thought Damien said he followed the ITH charts in a different thread and I didn't have them handy so I didn't question it
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teknique



Joined: 13 Sep 2006
Posts: 84
Location: UK

PostPosted: Tue Sep 09, 2008 9:05 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Damien wrote:
maybe you're right and I need to cross AJo off of my list of playable EP hands (I rarely, if ever, open limp)


I never used to open limp, but I've been finding passive tables recently, I usually test the waters early on in a session with a speculative limp and if it works I put a few more in, but if I face aggression I make more folds EP.

Damien wrote:
I also need to think about my c-bet policy, I'm afraid it is hovering right around 100% at the moment. Definitely a couple of things to look at.


I think the key thing to remember is a C-bet is a bluff, and bluffs rarely work against 2 opponents, and hardly ever work against 3. Theres a good chapter about this in ITH Smile
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nsidestrate
Suited's Love Monkey


Joined: 26 May 2004
Posts: 22651

PostPosted: Tue Sep 09, 2008 9:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Playing AJ from EP depends a lot on what you think will happen if you raise pre-flop. If you think the odds are good that you win the blinds or go to the flop with not more two other players, raising is OK. If you suspect three or more people will probably call you, you should not raise. Even thought Matthew's charts say to limp, I'd either raise or fold.

I think that one of the reasons Matthew's charts don't call for a raise is that newer players get in trouble by banging in bets with hands when they have raised pre-flop. Stud is also right about the auto-continuation bet in this hand. OOP against three players on a draw heavy board, this is a bad spot to bet the flop.

Folding the turn was a good decision, and pre-flop and flop were both marginally OK.

Your discussion did butcher the odds count a bit though. If he doesn't have a ten, you don't have 10 outs. He could have a five or 87 or 76 or 77 and you are back to drawing to the straight. The four fives would also be odds to draw to the split pot. This is a situation where having more people yet to act confuses the picture somewhat and makes a fold make more sense. If it was MP2 betting and the other two people folded first, then you would no longer be very worried about the flush draw and you wouldn't have to worry about a raise behind you from the ten, so calling might be better.
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Damien



Joined: 30 Jun 2008
Posts: 456
Location: Donk Betting the Flop

PostPosted: Tue Sep 09, 2008 11:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I knew I would butcher the outs, and thats why I usually don't mention them. In my head I know which cards I want to see and which I don't, but I don't always get it right when I write it out Confused

Anyway, great advice here also. I'm going to consider table conditions when in EP with a hand like AJ or KQs, and either raise or fold depending. I think it will be easier for me to just implement a no-limping policy. And I'm going to try to not always auto c-bet, considering my position, the number of opponents, the board, and the strength of my hand. Thanks!

I will still be c-betting most of the time though, as Mis says it should be close to 100% Wink
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shallam



Joined: 14 Apr 2006
Posts: 250

PostPosted: Thu Sep 11, 2008 10:08 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Preflop

A PFR w AJo in first position is marginal. This would be right at the bottom of my range at a table where I'm playing fairly agg. At very loose passive table I'd just call.

Interestingly you get three callers. Is this typical ? With this number of callers, a marginal hand, I'm going to check the flop unless I hit.


The Flop.

That's a bad flop. Not only did it miss us, it could easily have hit someone else hard. Several mid pairs now have a set, several suited connectors or one gappers have 2 pair, and we have both flush and striaght draws to worry about.

But most important --- WE HAVE NO HAND ! and only the weakest of draws.

I'm checking hoping for a free card and an A on the turn, a J on the turn would be mixed blessing. We can't be positive that either of these outs are live. How enthuisastic would you be if the Jc peels ?

I see that you've bet here. I'd be interested to learn what guidelines you use to make CB on the flop.

The good news is that you didn't get raised and we are still in and we get to see a turn card.


The Turn.

Yuck! That's no help. Well the good news here is that it makes a fold really obvious, we won't have to worry about being seduced into bad/marginal calls.

You fold ---- GOOD. (Interesting that everyone folded to the Buttons bet. This reinforces the fact that lots of people will call the flop with crapola/nothing.)

Summary.

Everything looks fine except maybe the flop CB. I think three opps, a juicy board and no hand whatsoever, would lead me to check and probably fold (I'd base my decision on pot/card odds when it gets back to me).

Lesson = fold bad hands as early as possible.
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Damien



Joined: 30 Jun 2008
Posts: 456
Location: Donk Betting the Flop

PostPosted: Thu Sep 11, 2008 1:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
I'd be interested to learn what guidelines you use to make CB on the flop.


Beginning to realize that it is a leak in my game, prior to this post I c-bet 100%, no exceptions. I've since implemented some guidelines involving position, number of opponents, strength of hand, and board coordination to drop this closer to 90-95% Wink
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