10k hands - Checkup

[blah730235]

I'm posting these graphs and numbers mostly because I'm starting to think I have some bigger leaks in my postflop play and am a little lost on where to start. Although i've always felt that looking at graphs and numbers to find leaks is like trying to do surgery with an axe I wanted to start somewhere. My #1 question is can I assume that because i have a low Won $ at showndown and because I was more succesful short-stacking do i have major leaks in my turn and river play?

http://www.freewebs.com/al9/graph.jpg
http://www.freewebs.com/al9/numbers.jpg

[Soultwister]

Three things:

- Having such a good winrate is great.
- Having a high won without showdown is also great. If you could keep up that kind of graph, there's no need to focus on won at showdown stats since it seems you pick good boards to bluff/cbet or check-fold.
- It's a small sample :/.

What I think is more interesting though is that you have a very high steal % at quite low limits, and do well with it. That is where the non-showdown winnings eventually are created from: picking up blinds, picking good boards to cbet, and perhaps table selecting well.

47,5% won $ at showdown is not low at all for for your playstyle, and I see no need to work on it as long as you can keep playing very profitably like this. My advice is to just keep getting in more hands, wait till variance evens out a bit and go from there.

[blah730235]

[Neilis]

First up, nice job. You have single-handedly proven that the fold button most certainly exists at NL25 and below.

The stat that jumped out at me - and I might be wrong about what it actually stands for because I don't have PT3 yet - is your AFq which I believe stands for Aggression Frequency. 55% on average and nearly 62% at NL25 over a very small sample. If I'm understanding that right it would mean that postflop you either bet or raise - take an aggressive action - well more than half the time. That's crazy.

My guess is that as you start running into competent players who pay attention you're going to start getting looked up more often - and it looks (from the high WTSD) like it's already started happening at NL25. The good news is that you're winning more than half your showdowns still but I suspect that's a bit of run good. I've recently won 10 buyins in 1500 hands (nice heater) and my WTSD is way way less than your NL25 WTSD.

Look it's a small sample but if I had to make a few comments for you I'd probably go with:

It's okay to call sometimes.
You're probably running hot so don't be demoralised if it cools off a bit.
Make sure you know when to tone it down because people will start fighting back. Or calling down.
I suspect you're better than 98% of the players I see regularly at my NL100 games.
Post position stats just for fun! (And because it's important)
Read Soultwister's blog every time he posts. (That goes for everyone)
Play more hands and check back later!

[blah730235]

[Soultwister]

[blah730235]

Great hands ST I took the most interest in hand #3.

You don't protect your hand on the flop because it is more EV+ to under-rep your hand I can see by the way you played it. I don't think I can remember the last time I didn't protect a TPTK+ hand on a drawy flop. Perhaps I shall try giving villan a free card on a drawy board - of course against the right type of villan if I run into one.

[Scully]

I would recommend, if you can, watching a few videos from Stoxpoker or somewhere similar. I can only speak for Stox as that is where I am subscribed, but there are some cool videos about getting really aggro at lower limits and how successful it is and, interestingly, how low variance it is.

The overall premise is that there are two types of players at micro limits - ones trying to play properly but won't commit without big hands and those that are just loose passive/timid.

An assumption I hear a lot is that micro players are just calling stations and can't be bluffed. In my experience this is utter nonsense. A lot of micro limit players limp a lot and call weak bets a lot. BUT they are generally terrified of someone who is raising over limpers, three betting PF, re-raising on the flop and generally putting them to decisions. And when I say raising, I don't mean min raising or 2x their bet raising, I mean really raising - 3-4x their bet.

In summary, generally micro players hate being forced into making marginal decisions for a lot of their stack.

Interestingly post flop play becomes easier as you simply shut down at any sign of resistance.

Take a standard pot - hero on the button. Two limps in front, hero raises to 6x bb. Most of the time everyone folds. Sometimes you get a caller. If the flop is pretty raggy and it's checked to you, c-bet 80-90% of the the pot - i.e.: 12bb or so. In my experience you will take this down so often that the hits you take when you don't are massively outweighed. Note I haven't mentioned a holding here as it is simply irrelevant. Your not making this move to see a showdown.

The reason this works is that players rarely adjust and you can basically get away with murder. The odd player does adjust, but then you simply play a trappy game against him. Basically when he is not in the pot carry on as before to keep up the image. When he is in and you have a genuine hand, play the same way. Chances are that even though he has adjusted, he hasn't noticed that you have re-adjusted against him specifically.

You also find players adjust by calling your raises and re-raises rather than re-popping you. This is brilliant news as they kind of want to make a stand but are a bit wary still, so take the pot away from them.

You also find certain players who are determined to stack the donkey who keeps raising every hand on every street (obv you're not literally doing that, it just feels like it). Again this is great news as he'll try and do it with marginal hands or even a stone bluff.

I don't know what the guys I play must think is going on as they very, very rarely see me showdown junk. In fact that rarely see me showdown at all. The premise is that I'll shutdown if I get too much resistance, but this happens so infrequently that I rarely have to.

I've changed my game from a 22/18 PF game to around 35/33 and, albeit over a small sample, had better results.

Rather than just take my word for it, try and get a Stox preview membership or something and watch a couple of the NL50 videos (btw - I am in no way associated with these guys, its just that if you watch the same videos I have all of the above will become a lot clearer).

I also appreciate that what is being said here goes against the grain of how most of the other guys here play and so expect a bit of debate about this strategy which would be a good thing IMO. All I know is its working for me at the moment

[blah730235]

Yea I agree with just about everything you said scully your right on the money about the micros. I'm not so sure about paying money to watch videos tho... watching videos from stoxpoker might help but it sounds like I've already picked up alot of their teaching on my own.

[Scully]

It does indeed sound like you've picked up a lot about punishing weakness and timidness.

Things in the videos that helped me out that I probably wouldn't have picked up myself (at least not as quickly) were the discussions about hand reading and when to fire the second, and even third barrell and also when to put out thin value bets.

Then again this isn't a thread about coaching sites so I'll leave it there.

Overall it looks like you're doing just fine as you are btw