$100NL - JJ in SB vs. another ITH'er

[jaydreb]

Bodog $100NL - Full Ring

Hero (~$160) is dealt J J in SB

Villain (~$130) is UTG+1. Villain is an ITH'er and my read (based partly on the fact that he posts here) is he is a solid TAG.

PREFLOP: UTG limps, Villain limps, 3 folds, CO limps, 1 fold, Hero raises to $6.50, UTG folds, Villain calls, CO folds

FLOP (~$15):

Hero bets $12, Villain raises to $25, Hero calls

I call here for several reasons. First, Villain is a decent player who is capable of reading my bet as a c-bet with air. So Villain could easily be raising with nothing. Second, there's a bunch of hands Villain be raising with that I can beat, such as 88-TT. I didn't really consider 3-betting (I thought more about folding than 3-betting, actually), but maybe I should have?

TURN (~$65):

Hero checks, Villain bets ~$40, Hero ????

I think he either has a monster here (i.e., quads) or nothing. I don't think he's value betting with a hand like 88-TT, and I think it's even more unlikely he has QQ+ given his action preflop.

So I think his range is 44, 55, or air. Can I fold when the only reasonable hand that beats me is quads?

[BigViking]

Well, that depends on how you weight his range. You say it's quads or nothing, but if it's quads 95% of the time, you obviously fold. The question is whether you believe he could play a suited connector like that preflop. If he could, then a full house is possible and so is a monster draw like 67dd. A good player would often take a free one on the turn with a draw as your hand is pretty much face up. Would he ever think that you could fold JJ on that turn?

It all depends on how good he is and what he thinks of you, but that turn card is a horrible card to barrel without a hand that beats yours. He should really check back any hand that doesn't beat you and never bluff unless he thinks you're very weak tight or extremely loose. If it's true that he's capable of having a bluff on the turn with a decent frequency AND you don't think he shows up with a full house here, it's obviously an easy call, but I doubt those assumptions if he really is a good player.

[poker_Elmo]

Hmm,

I don't know too many tags that min raise flops then put in almost half their stack on a turn bet. What plausible PF hands would a tag limp-call pre-flop?

I would assume 22-99, and perhaps suited connectors and suited aces. I would think all pairs would warrent a limp-call, but most tags are not going to call that much OOP with a suited connector or a suited ace. I would put a slightly lower probability on that.

The min raise on the flop says he has something - either a nice draw, a pair, or trips.

When you check on the turn, I would assume he would check his draws, however, might makes me think FH, quads, or overpair. Since there are many pairs consistent with this play, I probably push here. At this point, you only have to win about 1-3 times to make a turn ch-raise profitable, I think are ahead here this often, perhaps more.

[BigViking]

Elmo, you really think he raises the flop with 99 and bets the turn like that?

[poker_Elmo]

[emmapeel]

I'm sure there is an option of just calling with this hand in the SB despite it's strength. The stacks are big and it will be hard to play a pot out of position.

With villain limp-calling a big bet it looks like it will be a range of mainly middle pairs here. On the flop villain might have 44 or 55 or more likely 88 here. A5 is unlikely but 65 or 54 suited might be possible as the stacks are deep and villain may have been looking to win a big pot on a good flop. I think I'm betting about the same on the flop. I like the call of the re-raise too as villain is unlikely to have a draw and more likely an over-pair. It keeps the pot small if villain has a big hand too.

The bet on the turn is tricky as villain may still just have an over-pair. I think I'm going to call this too to be consistent. 44 and 55 are not so likely now and I'm guessing that most hands that contain only one of these cards would have folded pre-flop.

What to do on the river is another question. It depends on a few things for me. The intention is probably to check again and see how villain reacts to the river card.

EP

[emmapeel]

Maybe if you want to play on then check-raising the turn is the way as Elmo has said. Calling, like I said would leave $60 left to bet and a $140ish pot so it would be hard to avoid calling any more bets anyway.

I agree that the bet on the turn by villain is worrying and does suggest what I think is an unlikely big hand. It is hard to think that a TAG would think 99 un-improved is worth $130 here.

Then again villain might put Hero on a draw and feel he has to bet with 99. Hero's range pre-flop usually includes good hands and steal hands and so villain may have factored this in.

I think I'm going to the end with this as I am curious but maybe folding is better.

EP