Texas Holdem Strategy

mchilger · Last edited by mchilger on Mon Jul 21, 2008 5:58 am; edited 1 time in total

I'm currently in the middle of this book. The hand examples are probably the best I have read. Very thorough and insightful. I don't play much limit these days, but I have no doubt that this book will improve my game, especially if I started playing Limit again seriously.

BUT, will this book improve my win rate? The problem with the tremendous influx of poker literature is that the poker populous who studies and reads books will dramatically improve their games. It use to be that "average" players could be a good source of profit for advanced players in addition to the great profits made from the weak players. As the level of play of "average" increases, player's profits will will need to rely almost solely on the weak players so that overall profits decrease.

With this book, most of the players playing $30-$60 and up will read this book. Although my game might improve slightly, their game on average will increase even more. Overall, all of the students of the game will make far fewer mistakes so that my sole profit will come from the weak players who might be playing. Now don't get me wrong, most of your money is always made from the weak players, but there is still money to be made from the average players. But these players who are currently average will make less mistakes in the future.

So I ask, will this book improve my win rate? I seriously don't think so. I think it will improve the quality of play of my opponents much more overall so profits are harder to come by.

Of course, this book has a very specific market which happens to be quite studious overall. I doubt other books will have quite the same impact on their overall games respectively. For example, Harrington's books have improved the play of many players, but there are still plenty of fish to exploit and still plenty of weaknesses in players who have read Harrington. There are also many "novices" who might read Harrington and that is all so they aren't really students of the game.

I guess I'm just thinking more and more that Limit Hold'em may be a dying breed of the game - profits are going to very tough to come by, especially online. It will be a fight of the fittest so that only the very strong players survive to feast on new players - and those players won't last too long given the increased level of competition they face.

Comments?

Matthew

nsidestrate · Suited's Love Monkey Joined: 26 May 2004 Posts: 22401

I think that limit still protects the weaker players better than no-limit. Players can make very serious mistakes and still win over the short or medium term.

Having said that, I do think that the quality of play at limit games has gone up a great deal. I play more 15/30 than 30/60 now that the new law has made it very difficult to move money around. I was running 3 bb/100 over a very large sample size last year at 15/30 and I'm barely breaking 1 bb/100 since the new law. I think this is partially due to fish moving away and partially due to players getting better. I find that the play at WPEX is much more exploitable because many players don't seem to take good notes without pokertracker to help them.

Sadly, the facts are that at the higher levels in limit hold'em your edge is typically pretty small because the bad players have usually gone broke before they got there. You still get someone playing over their head once in a while or the high limit player blowing off steam or the tourney donk who really doesn't get limit, but you see all three less and less these days.

Finally, you shouldn't be reading this book. Concentrate on no-limit, WSOP man. I'm refusing to crack the covers of this book.

taz115 · Posted: Tue Apr 24, 2007 9:47 am Post subject:

I just received this book the other day and I plan on spending next month going over it in detail. KPR gives it great reviews and I think it will improve my game alot.

I agree that almost everyone playing 15/30 and higher is going to read this book. But I think, if it is as good as I've heard, that it will make the most impact for players at 3/6 - 10-20 where only some of the players will read and comprehend the book. I think the games are probably aggressive enough at these limits where the hand examples will still be useful. I guess we'll see.

cybrarian · Retired Moderator Joined: 05 Dec 2003 Posts: 11218

woodyman4916 · Joined: 15 Jan 2006 Posts: 461 Location: Upstate NY

Is limit dead? I hear almost everyone saying limit has gotten tougher. I can't disagree, although you can still find a good table during peak hours if you are patient. NL seems to be were the profit is for cash games.

taz115 · Posted: Tue Apr 24, 2007 10:26 am Post subject:

This is a little off topic, but limit is significantly tougher than a year ago on FTP and Stars but there are lots of smaller sites where the play is still quite bad.

mchilger · Posted: Tue Apr 24, 2007 10:58 am Post subject:

Limit isn't dead, but I think the trend is going towards that, especially at the higher limits. Nside's stats of 3bb to 1bb is pretty incredible. A counterargument though is that more of the middle limit players who are now successful will try higher limits.

I do agree that is is worthwhile looking for new fishing holes.

Great players will always have the edge, it's just that it is becoming easier for the average players to advance their game.

Matthew

ebo8b · Posted: Tue Apr 24, 2007 12:07 pm Post subject:

I do agree that Stox's book will make short handed games much tougher, so game and seat selection will become even more important. The last real uncharted territory is heads up play. Byron Jacob's DVD set is excellent, but heads up play is too situational for a book on WITHG's level to be written. I have a feeling that a lot of excellent limit players will play more heads up and start tables so they can play 3 or 4 handed.

ebo8b · Posted: Tue Apr 24, 2007 2:33 pm Post subject:

A couple more comments about how I expect Stox's book to affect play at the higher limits. Stox really pumps semi-bluffing, both in position and out of position. Stox especially likes semi-bluffing the turn because it looks stronger. If most players use this strategy, we'll need to value bet and call down much more lightly on the turn against the average player. And if the average player makes this sort of adjustment, we'll have to watch and see if fold equity for flop semi-bluffs increases as players start to expect most semi-bluffs to occur on the turn.

Lastly, if Stox's book causes the average player at higher limits to semi-bluff near optimally, I'd expect that an excellent player would need to be well versed in game theory and know how to apply it at the poker table.

Bugsbunny · Posted: Tue Apr 24, 2007 3:26 pm Post subject:

It should also be interesting once the David Fromm/Ray Zee book comes out. From what I gather David plays a style somewhat different from Stox (for one David uses a lot more donk bets, from what I know).

It also goes to show that there isn't one optimal style. The trick will be how to figure out what your opponent is doing and then use the strategy he's using to defeat him by exploiting known tendencies. A melding of strategies is likely to have the best long-term success being able to adapt your current strategy to your opponent. Not that this is anything really new - it's always been adapt or die.

But for any given strategy there has to be a counter-strategy. The trick is figuring out what it is and when to apply it.

Not that I would ever semi-bluff the turn, especially in a 3/6 or 5/10 game Smile

(check out some of my latest posts in short-handed and limit forums).

mchilger · Posted: Tue Apr 24, 2007 4:12 pm Post subject:

AlamedaMike · Posted: Thu Apr 26, 2007 2:06 pm Post subject:

taz115 · Posted: Thu Apr 26, 2007 2:11 pm Post subject:

I wouldn't bother AM. It is laregly focused on breaking down situations that occur in pots that are HU after the flop. In the games you play I think that is not a common occurance. It is also geared toward much more aggressive play than you would typically see from what I know about the limits you play.

The book will always be around so if you move up and play more aggressive tables you can order it then, but I don't think even live 20/40 games are that tight or aggressive live.

My 2 cents.

AlamedaMike · Posted: Thu Apr 26, 2007 3:37 pm Post subject:

thanks that is pretty much what I thought. I have seen some 4 handed 100/200 live games at the bay 101 and I am not interested.

mchilger · Posted: Thu Apr 26, 2007 3:49 pm Post subject:

This is a tough question. I have now finished the whole book so can comment fully.

First, I think you book titles are very misleading. Small Stakes Hold'em is applicable to both online and live games. It is also applicable to almost all limits. Yes, there are some sections of that book which aren't applicable to many players, such as starting hand play when 5 or more see the flop. But majority of the strategies discussed can help both online and live players in all limits. What is interesting about Small Stakes is that it is an advanced book. The subtitle actually gets it correct "Winning Big with Expert Play". There are a lot of advanced strategies in that book which I believe will be misapplied by beginning to intermediate players.

Internet Texas Hold'em is applicable to both live and online games. In fact, I'm thinking of marketing it as such in a future edition. The title was great marketing for me a few years back but that isn't the case anymore with the new law.

Winning in Tough Hold'em Games: Short-Handed and High-Stakes Concepts and Theory for Limit Hold'em. Wow, what a mouth-full. How about Short-Handed and High-Stakes Limit Hold'em? Smile

.

Are the concepts applicable to low-limit games? There is where the question is a tough one for me. This book is primarily about play post-flop when heads-up. In fact, I think there are only two pages in the entire book that discuss flops with three or more opponents seeing the flop. That type of situation occurs very rarely in live low-limit games.

Having said that, there are two situations where this book might be relevant. In your games, if it is folded around to late position with any type of frequency, this book will be helpful in deciding which hands to raise with from late position and which hands to defend with. If your games get headsup on the flop with this type of late position play with any frequency then the book is applicable. If not, the book is probably not a worthwhile read for you as Taz says.

However, there are two areas of the book which still might be helpful for the thinking/advanced player. These areas of the book could teach you concepts which you might apply to any game you are playing, including NL or Stud. The first is the concept of betting lines. In this type of situation, you can check/call, check/raise, or bet. In this type of situation you can A, B, or C. We recommend X. I think it is interesting to have a strategy that you define for various types of situations you will find. For example, in a loose game and you flop a big draw out of position, what should you do most of the time? What betting line will maximize your expectation. What if you are in late position with a big draw? What if you are in early position with a medium hand? A big hand? Etcetera. The idea is to learn your typical strategy in certain situations, and then adjust them accordingly for game conditions.

I also think Stox's analysis of 50 hands is very interesting. His analysis of putting his opponent on a range of hands and then acting accordingly could be helpful to even the NL player. It is the process rather than the actual concepts which might he helpful to all players.

In general, I think I agree with Taz. The book would not be too helpful if you rarely see a flop headsup. However, I do think there are concepts which could be learned which would be helpful to all players - you'll just have to delve a little deeper in your analysis to be able to apply the concepts/process to your particular type of game.

Matthew

	Odds Chart & Calculators Rakeback Comparison	AND YOU'LL GET FREE POKER GIFTS WITH SIGNUPS!
Internet Texas Holdem Poker Forum Party Poker Bonus PokerStars Bonus Texas Holdem Strategy Internet Poker Bonus Poker Book Store
Poker Blogs Internet Poker Rankings
FAQ \| Search Forum \| Watched Topics Memberlist \| Usergroups \| Register \| Profile \| Log in \| Log in to check your private messages

Internet Texas Holdem

Poker Forum

Party Poker Bonus

PokerStars Bonus