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Neilis
1K Club
Joined: 30 Aug 2005
Posts: 1108
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 Posted: Thu Aug 07, 2008 5:22 am Post subject: What to do with this bad river card? |
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Poker Room skin
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
7 players
Converter
Stack sizes:
UTG: $100.00
UTG+1: $29.55
MP1: $93.95
CO: $16.80
Button: $144.70
Hero: $218.50
BB: $296.10
We're at pokeroom and this table is 7-max which is pretty cool. The BB is one of the few players I have much respect for at this site/level but he only runs 15/5 preflop. His postflop aggression is generally quite high but he probably doesn't bluff a whole lot.
Pre-flop: (7 players) Hero is SB with  
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, 3 folds, Hero calls, BB checks.
I like seeing cheap flops out of position with these hands
Flop:    ($3, 3 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks.
Quite often I would bet a good draw here and hope to pick up the pot or build a pot and then hit my card.
Turn:  ($3, 3 players)
Hero bets $2.5, BB raises to $9, UTG+1 folds, Hero raises to $26.5, BB calls.
Obviously this is a fantastical card. There's heaps of money behind so I think 3-betting here is pretty standard. I also think my 3-bet is far too small. I think calling is pretty horrible because there's just no way I'm getting his stack in or even a big chunk of it without raising here.
River:  ($56, 2 players)
Hero ....?
So that card sucks. What to do here? |
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Scully
Joined: 25 Jul 2004
Posts: 551
Location: Manchester, UK
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| Posted: Thu Aug 07, 2008 5:52 am Post subject: |
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Obviously you're only worried about the BB having a full house here. I find this difficult to believe. Many players raise pocket pairs PF, although if he's 15/5 he might not raise 77 or 99. Surely he would raise TT or JJ, and, thinking about it, probably 99.
Now he might check 99 on the flop but any other set I would expect him to bet here to prevent giving draws a free card. The turn play suggests he MAY have 99, but an 8, and specifically Q8, would equally make sense and are statisitically more likely, and definitely would have checked in the BB. Even some two pair hands like JT or 9T might play this way in a blind vs blind situation, although given his stats I'm not sure he would call the re-raise with these holdings.
For these reasons I'm happy to get it in on the river. There's only one hand that beats us that makes sense, and plenty of others that make sense that we beat. How to get it in is a separate issue (unless he holds 99).
I think even if I check here I'm calling a river shove. I might even check to encourage the river shove.
But as this has been posted I'm guessing villain has 99. If so, IMO that just sucks. Reload and carry on. |
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Damo_1
PauliF Fan Club
Joined: 04 Aug 2005
Posts: 1009
Location: Playing sets fast
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| Posted: Thu Aug 07, 2008 8:20 am Post subject: |
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| Scully wrote: | | For these reasons I'm happy to get it in on the river. |
You realise that they are over 200bb deep, with only about 25bb put in each so far? No way I'm getting it in here having to call a shove three times the pot. I think I'm check-calling up to a pot sized bet. Actually, how about bet/fold for $35-40ish? If he's got an 8 he'll pay off and if he's got a boat you'll soon know.
| Neilis wrote: | | I also think my 3-bet is far too small. |
Yes, you are right here. I'd be looking to make it $50 or even more to facilitate a river shove on a safe card.
BTW, what's your read on the short stack UTG+1? I'm raising preflop to isolate here often as it's easy to get it all in with a KQ top pair hand for 30bb. If it keeps a better player with position (BB) out of the pot that's fine by me. |
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poker_Elmo
2K Club
Joined: 17 Jun 2004
Posts: 2684
Location: PA
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| Posted: Thu Aug 07, 2008 11:13 am Post subject: |
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I actually think your 3-bet size on the turn is fine. With all the talk in books about winning a stack, sometimes it is unrealistic to win someone's entire stack given the pot size. The pot was $3 going into the turn. It is quite unrealistic to win all $200 of your opponents stack here. I think the raise to $26 is OK.
On the river, I think I am still ahead here. The only hand that beats you that makes sense for most players is T9. sets on the flop likely bet, since this is a super-dangerous and coordinated board. There are likely both draws, and/or customers, for someone who flopped a set. JT should also bet the flop. 99 likely raises PF.
I think I bet small, and I guess I get called with a 7. I bet maybe $22. If I am raised all in, I fold since you are just too deep. For a moderate raise size, I probably call. |
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blah730235
Joined: 02 May 2008
Posts: 126
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| Posted: Thu Aug 07, 2008 11:53 am Post subject: |
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| Quote: | | Actually, how about bet/fold for $35-40ish? If he's got an 8 he'll pay off and if he's got a boat you'll soon know. |
My thoughts exactly here, He's calling behind with a marginal hand most of the time and if he's raising our bet then he's probably value raising. Check/evaluate let's marginal hands get away with a check behind and bluff/FHs can overbet leaving us in a tought spot. This is a great spot to use a 'block bet'
Also with a PFR of only 5% i can see this villan checking pf with 22-99 maybe even 1010 so i would be worried about the full house |
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shallam
Joined: 14 Apr 2006
Posts: 222
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| Posted: Thu Aug 07, 2008 12:42 pm Post subject: |
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On the flop I think I would do a semibluff bet. On the turn I would have gone all in. I know this is a deep stack and a little scary but you have the stone cold nuts. I don't like to mess around with straights, too easy to get outdrawn -- or end up with a chop. There is enough money in this pot to make it OK to take home right now --- plus you'll have additional value for the times you are up against a lower straight, two pair and even a set. All these hands will need to either fold or pay too much to continue. I don't like to slowplay straights.
Well the river certainly is a disgusting card. You just got outdrawn by any set and any two pair which held a ten. Nevertheless, your hand is strong enough that you can stand a modest value bet. Maybe 1/4 of the pot, so weaker hands can call you.
If you are met with a massive all in -- you will have a tough decision to make -- a decision you could have avoided by going all in on the turn. |
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Taardvark
Joined: 14 Feb 2007
Posts: 966
Location: Fremont, CA
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| Posted: Thu Aug 07, 2008 3:03 pm Post subject: |
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I'm with Elmo and I like the turn bet. If villian has a set they'll play along and maybe even four bet on occasion, and since we've established that villian is pretty good, he can probably get away from AA, KK here. He might stick with QQ with the open ender.
This is a pot we want to build, not freeze anyone out. There aren't a lot of scary river cards since their are no flush possibilities to make us second best. The only real scare cards are the board pairing and a queen which could counterfeit us against AK (least scary card based on action but shouldn't be discounted 100%).
We hate the river, but our hand is strong. I'd go for the check call here and call anything up to a pot sized bet. I'd only fold if you suspect something based on the bet that tells you villian is full. It sounds like you know villian's game so you should have some read on him here.
I wouldn't be too upset over a check down here. This is a way ahead way behind situation and I prefer to check down and call if necessary in these situations. Your turn check raise could also work to your benefit because if villian is full, they might throw out a weak bet here enticing you to check raise again and then throw in the rope-a-dope. If you just call that bet you've ultimately won here because you've forced villian into costing them money they could have extracted from you with a larger lead out.
Getting all in on this river is out of the question IMO. We are way too deep and there is a legitimate chance we are second best. |
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