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blah730235
Joined: 02 May 2008
Posts: 128
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 Posted: Wed Aug 06, 2008 11:20 am Post subject: What does it take for you to fold here? |
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Hero and villan are both playing a straight-forward TAG game
Hero has villan covered & stacks are deep
Hero is UTG and holds  
Villan is the big blind
Hero open-raises for 5bb
Folds around to Villan
Villan 3bets for 18bb
Hero 4bets 65bb
Villan pushes All in
How many bbs does villan's push need for you to fold here? |
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Cript
Cheesehead
Joined: 13 Feb 2004
Posts: 4953
Location: Milwaukee, WI
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| Posted: Wed Aug 06, 2008 12:51 pm Post subject: |
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What limit is this?
Still not sure I can fold here...villian can overplay AKs/QQ often enough... |
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blah730235
Joined: 02 May 2008
Posts: 128
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| Posted: Wed Aug 06, 2008 1:26 pm Post subject: |
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So your not folding here even if his AI is 1000 bbs?
Limits can be .05/.10 |
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nsidestrate
Suited's Love Monkey
Joined: 26 May 2004
Posts: 22108
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| Posted: Wed Aug 06, 2008 3:39 pm Post subject: |
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If he showed AA, you should still call up to 100 BBs just on pot odds. Past that, you have to determine how often AK or QQ are in his range. If he would do the same with either or both QQ and AK, you could call a limitless stack (You are 49.995% against QQ+). If you think he would never shove with QQ and will show AA or KK twice as often as AK, you would be willing to call about 200 BBs. If we think he would never shove AK or QQ there (many players would not), you need to fold with stack sizes somewhere around 110 BBs.
Of course, the problem with this is that he might have found a great way to push you off a monster. |
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shallam
Joined: 14 Apr 2006
Posts: 222
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| Posted: Wed Aug 06, 2008 4:43 pm Post subject: |
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I'd have to have: a) a hyper deep stack; b) a super read on my opp; c) be able to dramatically outplay my opps during normal play; d) something else very unusual --- in order to fold this hand.
I'm almost always ready to go all in w KK preflop.
If my opp has AA (like on did today) .... then oh well....its a cooler. |
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shallam
Joined: 14 Apr 2006
Posts: 222
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| Posted: Thu Aug 07, 2008 8:22 am Post subject: |
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| nsidestrate wrote: | If he showed AA, you should still call up to 100 BBs just on pot odds. Past that, you have to determine how often AK or QQ are in his range. If he would do the same with either or both QQ and AK, you could call a limitless stack (You are 49.995% against QQ+). If you think he would never shove with QQ and will show AA or KK twice as often as AK, you would be willing to call about 200 BBs. If we think he would never shove AK or QQ there (many players would not), you need to fold with stack sizes somewhere around 110 BBs.
Of course, the problem with this is that he might have found a great way to push you off a monster. |
I agree that the above is an extremely valuable analysis. I would add however that one might also take into consideration what type of baseline advantage (+EV) they have.
If my % adv is greater under ordinary play, I can reduce variance and improve +EV by dumping this hand. In addition one might consider Psychology. If for example I am up for the day, this is the last hand, and losing the hand would make me stuck for the sesssion --- the emotional value of locking in a winning session might tilt a close call in favor in folding. |
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poker_Elmo
2K Club
Joined: 17 Jun 2004
Posts: 2685
Location: PA
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| Posted: Thu Aug 07, 2008 11:37 am Post subject: |
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| shallam wrote: |
If my % adv is greater under ordinary play, I can reduce variance and improve +EV by dumping this hand. In addition one might consider Psychology.
If for example I am up for the day, this is the last hand, and losing the hand would make me stuck for the sesssion --- the emotional value of locking in a winning session might tilt a close call in favor in folding. |
I am not quite sure what you mean by the first statement, but assuming your bankroll is big enough to handle NL, you should probably just look at the EV of this one hand. The only exception would be if you and your opponent are each super-deep and you can only rebuy to 100 bb, and he is an uber-donkey. Of course, if he is an uber-donkey, you are calling with KK every time, right?
I would argue, however, that if emotions are going to cause you to make -EV plays, you should just sit out, even before the blinds hit you.
As far as how many bbs deep I would need to be before I consider a fold, I probably need to be at least 200 big blinds deep, plus I would would need a read on an opponent as a super-nit who won't push QQ or AK. Even then it would be tough. |
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shallam
Joined: 14 Apr 2006
Posts: 222
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| Posted: Thu Aug 07, 2008 12:50 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: | [quote="poker_Elmo"] | shallam wrote: |
If my % adv is greater under ordinary play, I can reduce variance and improve +EV by dumping this hand. In addition one might consider Psychology. |
I am not quite sure what you mean by the first statement, but assuming your bankroll is big enough to handle NL, you should probably just look at the EV of this one hand. |
Let us assume that you have 10% adv on your opps during ordinary play with very small variance. Does it make sense to enter a hand with only 1% adv and extraordinarily high variance ?
Perhaps not. |
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shallam
Joined: 14 Apr 2006
Posts: 222
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| Posted: Thu Aug 07, 2008 12:54 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: | | I would argue, however, that if emotions are going to cause you to make -EV plays, you should just sit out, even before the blinds hit you. |
Yes, I hear you. OTOH, in this case you may be avoiding a -EV -- you really aren't sure. It sounds like if it's a +EV it's pretty slight.
You make some good points.  |
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