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darvon
BCS Advocate
Joined: 28 Feb 2004
Posts: 4826
Location: Detroit
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 Posted: Sat May 17, 2008 4:29 pm Post subject: There Ain't no Independant Voters. |
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In the O thread, I give (and have given it before) my definition of an "Independant voter". I believe it to be a reasonable one.
I say that a Republican is someone who votes for the Republican candidate most of the time. I quantify that to >=2/3s. Same with Dems.
Therefore an Independant voter is one who votes <2/3s for his or her majority party. It is NOT a person who decides "for the person, not the party", because deciding "for the person" is just deciding by the persons stated policies, which are glumped under two tents, thus deciding for the Democratic person >2/3s of the time really means that you agree with most of the tenets that most Democrats agree with, i.e. you are a Democrat not an Independant, get over it.
It also has little or nothing how you are "registered". How you votes is what matters in an election, how you are "registered" only matters when you get married. "We are registered at Crate and Barrel" 
The only useful models of characterizing voters is by their voting patterns.
I therefore claim there are little if any Independant Voters. Let's take a test.
Pick an office (like US Congressman) that you have voted for at least 5 times. Tell me the percentage of those times that you voted for your MAJORITY party. i.e. if you voted for Congress critter 7 times, and you voted 4 Dem and 3 R then your majority party is D and you voted 4/7s D.
Don't cross offices, as there are "Narrowcasting" issues then. Don't worry if you moved during the period.
For me for President, I am 100% R.
Governor would be 87% R
US Senate would be 75% R.
I am not an independant.
RU??? |
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Stew21
Joined: 03 Oct 2006
Posts: 626
Location: Orlando, Fl
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| Posted: Sat May 17, 2008 5:52 pm Post subject: |
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I do consider myself Independant.
I have no party affiliation nor do I want any.
Too many people (on both sides) will look down on you if you(I) do not agree with them only every subject.(voting point)
Nor will they consider you worth "wasting time" talking to you after finding this out about you.
So I (respectfully) decline to tell anyone how I vote and allow them to tell me how I voted.
Believe me it saves alot of time. |
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BernardDogs
Demagogue Demi-God
Joined: 30 Dec 2003
Posts: 4953
Location: Burlington, Vermont
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| Posted: Sat May 17, 2008 6:25 pm Post subject: |
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| I have voted for Bernie Sanders 100% of the time I have voted in Vermont. |
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darvon
BCS Advocate
Joined: 28 Feb 2004
Posts: 4826
Location: Detroit
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| Posted: Sat May 17, 2008 7:28 pm Post subject: |
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| Stew21 wrote: | I do consider myself Independant.
I have no party affiliation nor do I want any.
Too many people (on both sides) will look down on you if you(I) do not agree with them only every subject.(voting point)
Nor will they consider you worth "wasting time" talking to you after finding this out about you.
So I (respectfully) decline to tell anyone how I vote and allow them to tell me how I voted.
Believe me it saves alot of time. |
THat's not Independant. That's Anonymous. |
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darvon
BCS Advocate
Joined: 28 Feb 2004
Posts: 4826
Location: Detroit
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| Posted: Sat May 17, 2008 7:29 pm Post subject: |
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| BernardDogs wrote: | | I have voted for Bernie Sanders 100% of the time I have voted in Vermont. |
Exactly why that makes you NOT an independant voter.
How old is Bernie now? He was old when I wasn't.... |
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nsidestrate
ITH MVP
Joined: 26 May 2004
Posts: 21652
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| Posted: Sat May 17, 2008 7:36 pm Post subject: |
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| For me, I've been 100% democrat for President and Governor and I think exactly 50% for Senate. I might have voted against Warner once when I first started voting, I don't recall for certain. But I'm pretty sure I have voted for him ever since. I don't think I've ever voted for a Republican other than John Warner, so I guess I'm pretty much a Democrat. I wish we had more parties, because I'm not all that thrilled with the Democrats in general either, but I usually like them better than the Republicans. |
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toom
2K Club
Joined: 06 Apr 2005
Posts: 2203
Location: Playing craps with TJ Cookier
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| Posted: Sat May 17, 2008 7:49 pm Post subject: |
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| I voted for Lyndon Larouche in every single presidential election or primary possible, for as long as I remember, including mock elections in grade school. That makes me a member of the Psychotic Party. |
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ciaran
ITH Support
Joined: 10 Sep 2004
Posts: 4409
Location: Alpharetta, GA
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| Posted: Sat May 17, 2008 7:52 pm Post subject: |
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I've never voted for a Republican or Democrat for the House.
I've voted for one Democrat for the Senate, and no Republicans.
I've voted for a Republican for President 2 times, and a Democrat never (give me a few months, though).
On several occasions I've declined to vote for anyone for House/Senate races, but I've voted in every Presidential election year since '92 and only declined to vote when there wasn't a suitable candidate (I don't recall if I actually voted in '88, since I was away at school I think not). Including interim congressional elections, in which I haven't always voted, I believe that means I've voted for ~12-14 candidates between President/Senate/House, for a total of 2 Republicans and 1 Democrat.
Can I be an independent? |
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darvon
BCS Advocate
Joined: 28 Feb 2004
Posts: 4826
Location: Detroit
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| Posted: Sat May 17, 2008 9:25 pm Post subject: |
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| ciaran wrote: | I've never voted for a Republican or Democrat for the House.
I've voted for one Democrat for the Senate, and no Republicans.
I've voted for a Republican for President 2 times, and a Democrat never (give me a few months, though).
On several occasions I've declined to vote for anyone for House/Senate races, but I've voted in every Presidential election year since '92 and only declined to vote when there wasn't a suitable candidate (I don't recall if I actually voted in '88, since I was away at school I think not). Including interim congressional elections, in which I haven't always voted, I believe that means I've voted for ~12-14 candidates between President/Senate/House, for a total of 2 Republicans and 1 Democrat.
Can I be an independent? |
You need to decode that for me. You said you vote for 14 candidates.
sounds like you have voted for Pres twice and House 5 times? and Senate 5 times? How did you get to 2 and 1? Were the other 11 candidates Martian?
What was the political affiliation of the Martians?
(And don't say they were Little GREEN party men) |
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ciaran
ITH Support
Joined: 10 Sep 2004
Posts: 4409
Location: Alpharetta, GA
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| Posted: Sat May 17, 2008 10:41 pm Post subject: |
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| darvon wrote: | | ciaran wrote: | I've never voted for a Republican or Democrat for the House.
I've voted for one Democrat for the Senate, and no Republicans.
I've voted for a Republican for President 2 times, and a Democrat never (give me a few months, though).
On several occasions I've declined to vote for anyone for House/Senate races, but I've voted in every Presidential election year since '92 and only declined to vote when there wasn't a suitable candidate (I don't recall if I actually voted in '88, since I was away at school I think not). Including interim congressional elections, in which I haven't always voted, I believe that means I've voted for ~12-14 candidates between President/Senate/House, for a total of 2 Republicans and 1 Democrat.
Can I be an independent? |
You need to decode that for me. You said you vote for 14 candidates.
sounds like you have voted for Pres twice and House 5 times? and Senate 5 times? How did you get to 2 and 1? Were the other 11 candidates Martian?
What was the political affiliation of the Martians?
(And don't say they were Little GREEN party men) |
I didn't think it was especially relevant if they weren't Dem/Rep.
Mostly, I've voted Libertarian. I've voted for at least one Reform party candidate, and it's possible I voted for another non-Libertarian/Reform 3rd party candidate at some point (I voted at least once in MN, where my options were certainly wider than in GA). |
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Stew21
Joined: 03 Oct 2006
Posts: 626
Location: Orlando, Fl
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| Posted: Sat May 17, 2008 10:55 pm Post subject: |
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| darvon wrote: | | Stew21 wrote: | I do consider myself Independant.
I have no party affiliation nor do I want any.
Too many people (on both sides) will look down on you if you(I) do not agree with them only every subject.(voting point)
Nor will they consider you worth "wasting time" talking to you after finding this out about you.
So I (respectfully) decline to tell anyone how I vote and allow them to tell me how I voted.
Believe me it saves alot of time. |
THat's not Independant. That's Anonymous. |
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darvon
BCS Advocate
Joined: 28 Feb 2004
Posts: 4826
Location: Detroit
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| Posted: Sun May 18, 2008 12:37 pm Post subject: |
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| ciaran wrote: | | darvon wrote: | | ciaran wrote: | I've never voted for a Republican or Democrat for the House.
I've voted for one Democrat for the Senate, and no Republicans.
I've voted for a Republican for President 2 times, and a Democrat never (give me a few months, though).
On several occasions I've declined to vote for anyone for House/Senate races, but I've voted in every Presidential election year since '92 and only declined to vote when there wasn't a suitable candidate (I don't recall if I actually voted in '88, since I was away at school I think not). Including interim congressional elections, in which I haven't always voted, I believe that means I've voted for ~12-14 candidates between President/Senate/House, for a total of 2 Republicans and 1 Democrat.
Can I be an independent? |
You need to decode that for me. You said you vote for 14 candidates.
sounds like you have voted for Pres twice and House 5 times? and Senate 5 times? How did you get to 2 and 1? Were the other 11 candidates Martian?
What was the political affiliation of the Martians?
(And don't say they were Little GREEN party men) |
I didn't think it was especially relevant if they weren't Dem/Rep.
Mostly, I've voted Libertarian. I've voted for at least one Reform party candidate, and it's possible I voted for another non-Libertarian/Reform 3rd party candidate at some point (I voted at least once in MN, where my options were certainly wider than in GA). |
OK. So it sounds like you voted for Libertarian about 75% of the time. That's unusual, but not independant.
If we voted randomly, and most voted R or D, then we should have about 1/3 of the population with an "Independant" voting profile. I maintain that those with an Independent voting profile are about 5%ish.
Nside is closest to an independent voting profile, but he got there by having a D profile with one particular person as an exception who populated his voting pattern quite a bit.
So I repeat my assertion. There ain't no Independents.
====================================================
I have a question for the Euros. When there are more than 2 significant parties, are there a lot of "mixed voters" i.e. those voters where the party voting patterns have 2 parties close to the top? i.e. a voter who votes A 40% B 40% C10% and d10%
I am not sure whether a 4 Party system would cause more or less difference between my primary and scondary party... |
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Bugsbunny
53o
Joined: 07 Apr 2004
Posts: 7334
Location: Drinking Carrot juice
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| Posted: Sun May 18, 2008 4:14 pm Post subject: |
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Hmm let's see:
First time I ever voted was when Carter was running for re-election. I decided that he was too naive to be President after his "I can't velive they led to me" comments about the Soviets (among other reasons) so voted against him (meaning my vote ended up being cast for Ronald Reagan), but I wasn't voting Republican or Demococrat - I was just voting against Carter (along with most of the country that year).
Since then I voted Republican in every Presidential election, simply because I thought they had the better candidate. In some cases it was a lesser of two evils choice. The one exception was Clinton's first run for office. That year I voted for Perot. Actually when Clinton was running for re-election I may have voted for him - I just don't remember. I wasn't a fan, but he was doing a decent job at the time. My biggest gripe was that all the peace and prosperity he was claiming credit for was actually largely the result of Ronnie having won the Cold War.
So I've voted:
Reagan (R)
Reagan (R)
Bush(R)
Perot(I)
?????
Bush (R)
Bush(R)
For Governor/Senator/Congress I've been all over the map. I'm more likely to vote ant-incumbent than I am to vote a given Party. That's especially true if the incumbent is entrenched and a member of the currently in power party that's doing a lousy job.
I can't really break it down because I just don't remember how I voted in all those cases. I can think of specific cases where I've voted for a Democrat for Governor as well as a Republican. Same goes for both Congress and Senate. I know I voted Republican in the last Senate election, because Hillary gets my vote over my dead body. I also know that I voted Democrat for Congress in the last cycle (and he won in an upset).
I can honestly say I have no Party loyalty. Each of them has more than their fair share ot total idiots. |
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darvon
BCS Advocate
Joined: 28 Feb 2004
Posts: 4826
Location: Detroit
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| Posted: Sun May 18, 2008 5:06 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: | | I can honestly say I have no Party loyalty. Each of them has more than their fair share ot total idiots |
I honestly believe you. The problem is that "Independent voter" doesn't mean you don't have a loyalty, it means you don't have a discernable pattern.
But look at all the contrarian posts. Each of them claim to be "Independent" by using a different definition than mine, and then when data arrives are shown to have a defintely pattern.
Why am I ranting on this? It is because many times people use "Independent" to try to acquire a level of gravitas to their opinion which is unwarrented and mildly deceptive.
If a Republican pattern voter thinks Democrat A is a good guy, then I would put more weight to that opinion than if a Democrat Pattern voter did. It is running upstream for the R to praise the policies of a D.
But people who self ID as an "Independent" try to claim that same gravitas, even though they vote Democrat 87%. It's bologa.
I remember being in a meeting with Tim Russert when he was asked if he was a D or a R. He replied that he was an Independent. I rolled my eyes.
Tim was chief of staff to Daniel Patrick Moynahan, Democratic Senator from NY and BIG TIME democrat.
Anybody want to bet what Russerts voted % is for the House? IF he bothers to vote that is.
I heard Keith Oberman once state that to keep his journalist "Independence" he refused to vote. Another roll of the eyes. I have heard this talked about amongst other political media types.
Independent is an expression of voting patterns. Independence cannot be claimed without being earned. Tim or Keith didn't earn it. |
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ciaran
ITH Support
Joined: 10 Sep 2004
Posts: 4409
Location: Alpharetta, GA
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| Posted: Sun May 18, 2008 5:16 pm Post subject: |
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| darvon wrote: | | OK. So it sounds like you voted for Libertarian about 75% of the time. That's unusual, but not independant. If we voted randomly, and most voted R or D, then we should have about 1/3 of the population with an "Independant" voting profile. I maintain that those with an Independent voting profile are about 5%ish. |
Um, if your definition of independent is evenly splitting votes amongst all available parties, then yeah, I guess there probably aren't any independents.
I think that's an insane definition of independent, though. I've never voted for someone because of their party affiliation. I have on one occasion voted for someone who's platform/party I didn't actually support because I thought the race was close enough for me to compromise on an electable candidate (this is likely what I'll do this year for President, although I'd be less in disagreement this time). Otherwise, I've generally voted for the candidate with whom I was most in agreement, or in some cases not voted for anyone where there wasn't a candidate I could stomach. This isn't strictly a libertarian vote, as I've not voted for some Libertarian/faux-Libertarian candidates in the past as well (see Barr, this year).
Am I mostly a libertarian (small-l)? Yes, but that doesn't make me not an independent. |
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