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badboywes
Never Satisfied
Joined: 03 Mar 2007
Posts: 2501
Location: Barstow Ca
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 Posted: Sat Jun 28, 2008 9:28 pm Post subject: Set of 7's here in 1st stage of sng |
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I posted this over at CR and so far have got 2 responses saying to fold this Pre however I disagree. I feel the T$160 is not a lot of my equity at this stage in the trny and if I can flop my set I can more then double up. The only thing I dont like about the call Pre is theres a chance someone may 3 bet behind me but I doubt it since there where so many early limpers in the pot already. So ITH here is the post I made at CR and I would like to see what you all think?
https://cakepoker.com/HandHistory/?Hand=xcHAwcbAts21zMTExMTExojAwMDDzcI%3d
I Don’t know how or if you can convert Cake hands so please check this out and let me know what you think? I knew the board was draw heavy and I expected him to have the flush draw and I still had no problems calling here. With the extra caller I am more then happy to get it in here but I want to know what you all think since it is still so early in the sng. I feel I have such an edge on these guys that it makes me rethink my gut feel I had on the hand at the moment of play. I should add I know there is the out side chance my set is bottom set here but at this level of play I am confident my 7's are ahead here most of the time.
Thank you to all who respond,
Wesley |
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janeg
Regina Canada
Joined: 04 Oct 2004
Posts: 5113
Location: Somewhere down the crazy river
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| Posted: Sun Jun 29, 2008 12:02 am Post subject: |
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Just looking at the math, the pre-flop was +EV
.115(1320+580)-.885(160) = 218.50 - 141.60 = 76.90
On the flop, you're behind to TT, 88 or J9, all of which are possible, and you could lose to a draw that hits by the river but if you're not going to call a push on the flop when you hit your set, there's not much point playing the hand. |
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badboywes
Never Satisfied
Joined: 03 Mar 2007
Posts: 2501
Location: Barstow Ca
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| Posted: Sun Jun 29, 2008 12:37 am Post subject: |
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| janeg wrote: | Just looking at the math, the pre-flop was +EV
.115(1320+580)-.885(160) = 218.50 - 141.60 = 76.90
On the flop, you're behind to TT, 88 or J9, all of which are possible, and you could lose to a draw that hits by the river but if you're not going to call a push on the flop when you hit your set, there's not much point playing the hand. |
All I can say is wow Jane I am impressed. Yeah I felt it was a good play and more of a cooler then anything. I hate these types of hands that make me doubt myself after there over. But in 4 days of going back to SNG's grinding 5's/and some 10's im up $325 so im doing something right.  |
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badboywes
Never Satisfied
Joined: 03 Mar 2007
Posts: 2501
Location: Barstow Ca
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| Posted: Sun Jun 29, 2008 3:41 am Post subject: |
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| badboywes wrote: | | janeg wrote: | Just looking at the math, the pre-flop was +EV
.115(1320+580)-.885(160) = 218.50 - 141.60 = 76.90
On the flop, you're behind to TT, 88 or J9, all of which are possible, and you could lose to a draw that hits by the river but if you're not going to call a push on the flop when you hit your set, there's not much point playing the hand. |
All I can say is wow Jane I am impressed. Yeah I felt it was a good play and more of a cooler then anything. I hate these types of hands that make me doubt myself after there over. But in 4 days of going back to SNG's grinding 5's/and some 10's im up $325 so im doing something right. |
EDIT This is just sick I have won what I lost trying to play NL this month in 4 days and am now up over $420 in 4 days. |
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janeg
Regina Canada
Joined: 04 Oct 2004
Posts: 5113
Location: Somewhere down the crazy river
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| Posted: Sun Jun 29, 2008 7:23 pm Post subject: |
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Nice Wes  |
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ciaran
ITH Support
Joined: 10 Sep 2004
Posts: 4758
Location: Alpharetta, GA
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| Posted: Mon Jun 30, 2008 4:39 am Post subject: |
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Calling the raise isn't terrible, but you need to be reasonably certain you can stack off when you hit and you've got the whole table still to act basically. If your opponents are idiots, you can probably find a better spot, and if they're not your implied odds probably aren't there, so I'd just fold.
Flop is standard. |
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janeg
Regina Canada
Joined: 04 Oct 2004
Posts: 5113
Location: Somewhere down the crazy river
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| Posted: Mon Jun 30, 2008 10:01 am Post subject: |
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| ciaran wrote: | Calling the raise isn't terrible, but you need to be reasonably certain you can stack off when you hit and you've got the whole table still to act basically. If your opponents are idiots, you can probably find a better spot, and if they're not your implied odds probably aren't there, so I'd just fold.
Flop is standard. |
But, if they are idiots, isn't this already a good spot? You may actually triple, not just double. If you miss and don't get any opportunities in the next two levels, you're M will be around 8 when you hit the 50/100 level. If you don't gamble and just manage to maintain your 1,500t stack into the 50/100 level the difference between in M between 1,320 and 1,500 is 1.2M.
If you double now and don't improve until the 50/100 level you're M going in is 17.6. That's a huge difference
If you wait and manage to double your 1,500t in the 15/30 or 25/50 level, your M going into the 50/100 level is 20, a difference of 2.4M.
By waiting to double you've made a small gain over where you'd be if you hadn't gambled earlier but I don't think it's enough to justify the wait given that you may not find another opportunity to double. |
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ciaran
ITH Support
Joined: 10 Sep 2004
Posts: 4758
Location: Alpharetta, GA
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| Posted: Mon Jun 30, 2008 3:14 pm Post subject: |
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The implications if ICM are such that letting the idiots play hands with each other is +$EV, and it's usually more +$EV than getting involved in marginal spots your self. Playing for set value with 12% of your stack is marginal pretty much no matter what.
In this particular case, check-folding the flop will have cost you 1.1% equity. If you're doing that 8.5 times for every time you're getting it in with a set, you need to be plus 9.35% that last time to make up for it. Just doubling up here isn't actually enought to guarantee that equity jump, though you will just get there if you stack one guy and pick up the pre-flop raise from 1-2 others.
Of course, that ignores the cases like this one where you get stacks in and lose, as well as the times you flop the set but don't get action. As a general rule, you can't really set mine for any amount where you can't make at least 15 times your pre-flop chip investment (between other callers, and whomever you can stack) in an STT. |
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janeg
Regina Canada
Joined: 04 Oct 2004
Posts: 5113
Location: Somewhere down the crazy river
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| Posted: Mon Jun 30, 2008 6:11 pm Post subject: |
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| ciaran wrote: | | The implications if ICM are such that letting the idiots play hands with each other is +$EV, and it's usually more +$EV than getting involved in marginal spots your self. Playing for set value with 12% of your stack is marginal pretty much no matter what. |
So you're saying it's better to wait, not just for a better hand, but because they will knock themselves out, improving the chances you'll money?
| Quote: |
Of course, that ignores the cases like this one where you get stacks in and lose, as well as the times you flop the set but don't get action. As a general rule, you can't really set mine for any amount where you can't make at least 15 times your pre-flop chip investment (between other callers, and whomever you can stack) in an STT. |
If that's the case, then the starting stacks aren't large enough, this early, to set mine for the prices (160 * 15 = 2,400). With a stack of 1,320t behind, paying more than 88t is really -EV.
Different way of looking at it, because of the difference in M at later levels I was thinking gambling in these spots might be worth it; have to re-think it now.
Thanks for the info Ciaran |
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ciaran
ITH Support
Joined: 10 Sep 2004
Posts: 4758
Location: Alpharetta, GA
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| Posted: Mon Jun 30, 2008 7:17 pm Post subject: |
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| janeg wrote: | | So you're saying it's better to wait, not just for a better hand, but because they will knock themselves out, improving the chances you'll money? |
Precisely.
| janeg wrote: | If that's the case, then the starting stacks aren't large enough, this early, to set mine for the prices (160 * 15 = 2,400). With a stack of 1,320t behind, paying more than 88t is really -EV.
Different way of looking at it, because of the difference in M at later levels I was thinking gambling in these spots might be worth it; have to re-think it now.
Thanks for the info Ciaran |
Gambling early in an STT is definitely not a good idea, even moreso if you're better than your opponents, especially at the late stage pushbot game. This is, of course, why they're profitable. |
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CroMagnon
1K Club
Joined: 20 Sep 2006
Posts: 1170
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| Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2008 10:54 am Post subject: |
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A simple method of calculating whether it's worthwhile to Set mine is to multiply what it will cost to see the flop times 10. In this case it's 1600. slightly more then Wes' stack, but you have three others that you might get chips from so it is possible. I like to avoid multi way pots with small hands like this unless I can see the flop very cheaply. Early I'm likely to fold this.
What Ciaran said about letting people knock each other out is very true. I usually sharkscope the table before and without fail the best players play the fewest hands, get down to the bubble and start pushing. Bubble pushing is one of my leaks. I don't push enough hands. Even though I know this I have a hard time pushing marginal hands.
Cro |
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krazytxan
Texas Matriarch
Joined: 26 May 2004
Posts: 4578
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| Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2008 5:56 pm Post subject: |
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| ciaran wrote: | | janeg wrote: | | So you're saying it's better to wait, not just for a better hand, but because they will knock themselves out, improving the chances you'll money? |
Precisely.
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QFT |
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janeg
Regina Canada
Joined: 04 Oct 2004
Posts: 5113
Location: Somewhere down the crazy river
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| Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2008 9:31 pm Post subject: |
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| CroMagnon wrote: |
What Ciaran said about letting people knock each other out is very true. I usually sharkscope the table before and without fail the best players play the fewest hands, get down to the bubble and start pushing. Bubble pushing is one of my leaks. I don't push enough hands. Even though I know this I have a hard time pushing marginal hands.
Cro |
Now you've got me scratching my head Cro. I don't play alot of single table SnG's but I just read a section in HoH III that advised very tight play on the bubble because of the equity difference between 3rd and 4th. Are you talking about pushing hands when you're the big stack or short stack? |
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ciaran
ITH Support
Joined: 10 Sep 2004
Posts: 4758
Location: Alpharetta, GA
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| Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2008 9:52 pm Post subject: |
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| janeg wrote: | | CroMagnon wrote: |
What Ciaran said about letting people knock each other out is very true. I usually sharkscope the table before and without fail the best players play the fewest hands, get down to the bubble and start pushing. Bubble pushing is one of my leaks. I don't push enough hands. Even though I know this I have a hard time pushing marginal hands.
Cro |
Now you've got me scratching my head Cro. I don't play alot of single table SnG's but I just read a section in HoH III that advised very tight play on the bubble because of the equity difference between 3rd and 4th. Are you talking about pushing hands when you're the big stack or short stack? |
Calling on the bubble in a SNG, you do have to be quite tight, because you often need to be a significant favorite in order to be $+EV because of the prize equity jumps. Conversely, you can normally shove much wider, because callers have to be much tighter, a factor that is even bigger if you cover (or come close to covering) the potential callers.
There are undoubtedly some good examples in the SNG forum here (I know I've posted a few), and I think the best treatement I've seen in print is in "Kill Everyone", which covers bubble factors in all kinds of tournaments. Here's one to chew on:
Stars 9-man SNG, Blinds 100/200/25
CO - 1400
BTN - 2400
Hero (SB) - 6800
BB - 2900
Folds to Hero, who shoves without looking. What can BB profitably call with?
Even if BB doesn't know this answer, what would you assume is a reasonable calling range for BB, and what does that range imply Hero can shove?
How do things change if Hero and BB have 4850 each? |
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CroMagnon
1K Club
Joined: 20 Sep 2006
Posts: 1170
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| Posted: Thu Jul 03, 2008 9:49 am Post subject: |
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As ciaran said, at the bubble you have a very tight calling range and a wide shoving range. In ciaran's example I will be folding 90-95% of my hands. Especially since there are two shorter than I. Even if the stacks are equal at 4800 each I am still folding 90-95%. Reads could change that number. Is this guy an idiot who got his stack by sucking out. Has he pushed 3 or more hands in a row? But even then you have to keep in mind there are two shorter stacks.
An even better case, that shows where I have a problem is, with the same stacks as the example, I am on the Button and it's folded to me. The big stack is out of the way and I should be shoving any two cards. Too often I don't.
Another thing to keep in mind is the next blind level is a big jump. 200/400/50. In the $20 games, whether 1,2 or 3 table SnG, when you reach the bubble that 200/400 level is never far away. It's puts pressure on everyone. In $10 and below, players donk off more quickly and you can play a bit more conserviatvely with a middle stack because the blinds are not killing you.
But in general I should be pushing more often than I do. The trick is identifying when do you push and against whom.
Here's a question for ciaran. In the case where you are on the button with the second biggest stack and its folded to you, what reads on the SB and the BB will change whether you push, raise 3x or fold? If they are good players, bad players, laggy? Are there any read considerations that would stop you from pushing any two cards?
Thanks,
Cro |
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