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MCH Full Tilt Poker Win analysis--Hand 244

 
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chrisjp
53o


Joined: 03 Jun 2004
Posts: 4467
Location: Round Rock, TX and Las Vegas

PostPosted: Fri May 09, 2008 12:21 pm    Post subject: MCH Full Tilt Poker Win analysis--Hand 244 Reply with quote

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t400/t800
(Ante: t100)
9 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: t12825
UTG+1: t23509
MP1: t25236
MP2: t16344
MP3: t19200
CO: t27491
Hero: t13065
SB: t10625
BB: t6658

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is Button with Jack of Spades Jack of Hearts
2 folds, MP1 raises to t2000, 2 folds, CO raises to t6345, Hero folds, 3 folds.
Uncalled bets: t4345 returned to CO.

Results:
Final pot: t6100

I think it is very important to fold here just like Matthew did. These can get you in so much trouble.

Chris
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doubleup



Joined: 21 Mar 2004
Posts: 172
Location: Redding, California

PostPosted: Fri May 09, 2008 1:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I agree it's a good fold.
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nsidestrate
ITH MVP


Joined: 26 May 2004
Posts: 20839

PostPosted: Fri May 09, 2008 1:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

What if Matthew has QQ?
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doubleup



Joined: 21 Mar 2004
Posts: 172
Location: Redding, California

PostPosted: Fri May 09, 2008 1:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

QQ IMO is stat/read dependent. Without a good read, I fold QQ, all-in KK/AA
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ciaran
ITH Support


Joined: 10 Sep 2004
Posts: 4323
Location: Alpharetta, GA

PostPosted: Fri May 09, 2008 3:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think a readless fold of JJ, much less QQ, here is, at least, not a given. And I've got to be one of the biggest nits here.
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Bluedaq



Joined: 21 Mar 2006
Posts: 185

PostPosted: Fri May 09, 2008 6:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

M=6 here, hard fold I don't mind making a mistake with this stack size.
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MacTaiga



Joined: 08 Jun 2005
Posts: 298
Location: Daventry, UK

PostPosted: Fri May 09, 2008 8:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Wow, everyone so sure it's a good fold and I'm struggling with it. Guess I just get too attached to PPs.

Are you figuring that one of them must have a bigger PP or that it's just not worth the risk of seeing an A/K/Q hit the flop?

What's the reasoning here?
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chrisjp
53o


Joined: 03 Jun 2004
Posts: 4467
Location: Round Rock, TX and Las Vegas

PostPosted: Sat May 10, 2008 12:36 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The two raisers both have big stacks. If both players were all in then it's an easy call I think. nside's QQ is much more difficult. Anyone care to chime in more on this....Matthew?

Chris
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emmapeel
2K Club


Joined: 05 Feb 2006
Posts: 2041
Location: Edinburgh

PostPosted: Sat May 10, 2008 5:06 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I really want to push this. I think it depends on what CO is like as this player will be calling the push. AQ+ 99+? That looks close if it is that range.

I think I would make a decision on what little I knew of CO. If I had seen him do this before then I would push.

EP
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emmapeel
2K Club


Joined: 05 Feb 2006
Posts: 2041
Location: Edinburgh

PostPosted: Sat May 10, 2008 5:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm easily pushing with QQ. It's a tournament and the two other players have only 30BB stacks. I think they will have wide enough ranges to justify a QQ push. I still think JJ is close but I'm probably pushing that too.

EP
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nsidestrate
ITH MVP


Joined: 26 May 2004
Posts: 20839

PostPosted: Sat May 10, 2008 6:24 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

ciaran wrote:
I think a readless fold of JJ, much less QQ, here is, at least, not a given. And I've got to be one of the biggest nits here.


I'm certainly not folding QQ and I'm not always folding JJ either. MP1 would be the key to my decision. If he was the type who raised too much, I'd think CO could be getting frisky with a much wider range. If he was a nit like you, I'd credit CO with a really good hand. With 3,200 of potential dead money in the pot, I'd love to take a flip here.
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mchilger
ITH Founder and Poker Author


Joined: 30 Jun 2003
Posts: 5542
Location: Atlanta, Georgia

PostPosted: Mon May 12, 2008 6:36 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

For me, the key thing here was that the two largest stacks at the table were involved in this hand. I have an UTG raiser, and I have a cutoff who has raised another big stack who raised UTG. I think you have to respect both of those raises. At what point do you risk your stack? I think TT is easy, JJ is borderline (I thought a long time before folding), and QQ you go with it. Given my M of 6 though, I don't think it can be too wrong gambling with JJ there.

I'd need to do a little math though. If you put cutoff on QQ+ and A-K (personally the only hands I would RR in cutoff's spot), you still have to worry about UTG waking up with a monster.

Teaser- Winning Poker Tournaments by Pearljammer

I know this isn't the same exact situation, but interesting nevertheless.


Hand 36

Pearl 31-35-4

Seat 1: hack42 (6,048)
Seat 2: Compwiz0513 (8,730)
Seat 3: takefromall (35,387)
Seat 4: FW Buck (14,780)
Seat 5: mh404 (3,659)
Seat 6: Yettiman (19,912)
Seat 7: 1BigAceOl (3,225)
Seat 8: PearlJammed (19,950)
Seat 9: JFossum (9,399) (button)

Setup: It is the middle stages of a $10 rebuy, $15K guaranteed tournament. The blinds are 200-400 with a 50 ante. I am unfamiliar with my opponents but expect much of the play to be weak and somewhat predictable in a very low buy-in tournament.

Pre-flop Ts Td (1,050): Seat 4 raises three times the big blind from early position to 1,200. Seat 7 then moves all-in for 3,175. The action is on me in the cutoff.

With a hand as strong as TT, I am certainly willing to gamble against Seat 7’s short stack of only 3,175. After all, his M is only 3, so he should be very desperate to get his money into the pot with any reasonable holding. However, I have to reassess the situation because his all-in move is over the top of an early-position raise. Seat 7 should still be moving in with any pair, probably 77 or above, or any two strong broadway cards, A-J, K-Q, or better. I should be willing to gamble against this range. Seat 4’s potential holding is of more concern.

I have no information on Seat 4 except that his hand is strong enough to raise from early position. He is equally likely to have a higher or lower pair than mine. He also could be raising with a very wide range of broadway hands. I am probably ahead of him more often than I am behind. However, if I move all-in or reraise to approximately 7,000, isolating Seat 7, I would essentially be risking three-quarters of my stack against Seat 4. I would not expect Seat 4 to call (or move all-in over the top of my reraise) unless he had a higher pocket pair or perhaps A-K, but if he does wake up with one of those premium pairs, I would be crippled. If I do force him to fold, my reward will be a coin flip against Seat 7 with a little bit of dead money in the pot. There is not enough potential upside to risk endangering my stack.

I have determined that it is not worth moving all-in or reraising, but is cold-calling Seat 7’s all-in an option? If I call, Seat 4 will probably only move all-in with pairs that have me beaten or with A-K. However, if he has one of these hands and pushes, I will be forced to fold. Even if he chooses to just call the all-in as well, I will probably have to hold up against three or four overcards between both Seat 4 and Seat 7. I have position, but it would be difficult to continue with the hand post-flop if any overcards hit the board. Cold-calling Seat 7’s all-in is essentially a spew. Therefore, I choose to take the safe route and fold.

Seat 4 calls and shows A J. Seat 7 shows A Q•. The board comes K Q 9 6 7, and Seat 7 wins with a pair of queens.

This is a marginal situation where I see a lot of players shove their stack in with TT. At times, this can help them build a large stack if the original raiser calls off with A-K and they win a coin flip. However, it will also unnecessarily bust them from many tournaments at an early stage. When faced with an early position raiser with a similar large stack, I will usually choose to err on the side of caution and not risk my entire stack to isolate a short stack. Note that if I had a stack of about 8,000 or less in this same spot, I would be much more inclined to gamble!
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chrisjp
53o


Joined: 03 Jun 2004
Posts: 4467
Location: Round Rock, TX and Las Vegas

PostPosted: Mon May 12, 2008 10:42 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

My personal rule is that if there is

1) early position raiser
2) reraiser
3) they both have stacks
4) you are not too short, M=4.5 is about the tipping point

then QQ is a play and JJ is not

If the early position raiser is short, then his raise doesn't count and so there is one raise and JJ and even lower pairs might be playable depending upon the players and the conditions.

If the late position raiser is short then it just depends on other factors but JJ and TT are playable.

I think Matthew's JJ is a clear fold to me,
although fairly close because his M=6, getting short but this is not short enough to commit,
when there are two big stacks and an early position raiser, especially in a big entry tournament like this were Matthew has a huge edge. Why gamble here?

AJ and JJ just suck in so many situations. Wink

Chris
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