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maf66
2K Club
Joined: 13 Oct 2004
Posts: 2357
Location: London, UK
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 Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 2:22 pm Post subject: Getting 2:1 but worth the risk? |
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Stars WCOOP sat step 2 (Turbo). Villain seems a solid player. There was a long pause before he pushed which makes me think he has a weak-ish hand and was forced to push as he was about to hit the blinds. I'm getting 2:1....just, but I'll be crippled if I call and lose.
We have 7 players left. Top 2 win a step 3 ticket, 3rd & 4th play step 2 again, 5th gets step 1 ticket. Normally I'd put this through SNG Wiz, but I don't know how to set it up for steps payout.
Poker Stars, $25 + $2 NL Hold'em Tournament, 100/200 Blinds, 7 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
UTG+1: 1,385
MP: 5,260
CO: 2,060
BTN: 840
SB: 1,485
Hero (BB): 1,805
UTG: 665
Pre-Flop: (300)   dealt to Hero (BB)
UTG raises to 665 and is All-In, Hero ??? |
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PauliF
Shoes in Safe
Joined: 16 Jun 2004
Posts: 2729
Location: London
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| Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 2:24 pm Post subject: |
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you wont really be cripled
you gotta call here methinks
not just for the odds of winning this hand but if you do call you will be amazed how often you will walk in your BB after this |
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cowboyinexile
Joined: 28 Mar 2005
Posts: 334
Location: South Dakota
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| Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 9:45 pm Post subject: |
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| You fold, you have an M of 5. You call and lose, you have an M of 4. For UTG, its either this hand or the next, so he could have pretty much anything. I don't think its much of a choice here. |
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nukeduke
ITH BBQ Host Master
Joined: 07 Mar 2005
Posts: 2969
Location: Nashville
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| Posted: Tue Jul 15, 2008 8:30 am Post subject: |
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| This is one hand that I would fold. I agree with Pauli in the sense that I would call with a very wide range, but this hand isn't in it. If your stack was a little beefier I'd certainly call but as is, I'm folding. I don't think that folding or calling is a big mistake either way. |
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jmbreslin
Joined: 27 Sep 2005
Posts: 885
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| Posted: Tue Jul 15, 2008 8:45 am Post subject: |
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| There is no way I'm making this call. Your goal in the steps should be to survive to the top 5 and then open your game up, plain and simple. You may not be quite crippled if you lose, but you will be in much worse shape than you are now - especially since you'll double-up one of the shorties. Your hand is junk and pot odds aren't everything. |
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nsidestrate
Suited's Love Monkey
Joined: 26 May 2004
Posts: 22100
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| Posted: Tue Jul 15, 2008 9:48 am Post subject: |
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You need 35% equity for it to be a break even call on the equity.
If he in on a random hand, you have 38%. If he is shoving to 50%, you have 33%. He has to be shoving about 75% of his hands for you to get to the break even point in cEV.
I'm not sure how to calculate ICM in this situation, but I suspect it is a close fold. The meta-game implications about getting free walks in the blinds might make it worthwhile, I don't know. |
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maf66
2K Club
Joined: 13 Oct 2004
Posts: 2357
Location: London, UK
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| Posted: Tue Jul 15, 2008 10:38 am Post subject: |
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| nsidestrate wrote: | You need 35% equity for it to be a break even call on the equity.
If he in on a random hand, you have 38%. If he is shoving to 50%, you have 33%. He has to be shoving about 75% of his hands for you to get to the break even point in cEV. |
This is an area that I'm struggling to understand. Where do you get these figures from? I understand the '% of hands' bit, but I don't understand how you work out the % equity.
BTW, thanks for all the replies. I will usually call with most hands, but after a long thought, I decided I'd wait for a better spot. I ended up 4th when my AQ lost to A7  . |
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PauliF
Shoes in Safe
Joined: 16 Jun 2004
Posts: 2729
Location: London
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| Posted: Tue Jul 15, 2008 10:53 am Post subject: |
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if you put your hand vs a random hand into pokerstove
| Quote: | equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.550% 35.66% 02.89% 748030580 60579969.00 { 7d4c }
Hand 1: 61.450% 58.56% 02.89% 1228381882 60579969.00 { random } |
if you put your hand vs the top 75% of hands in pokerstove (there is a slider on the second tab when you select hands)
| Quote: | equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 35.041% 33.22% 01.82% 527302662 28909831.50 { 7d4c }
Hand 1: 64.959% 63.14% 01.82% 1002183483 28909831.50 { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 92s+, 83s+, 73s+, 63s+, 52s+, 43s, A2o+, K2o+, Q2o+, J4o+, T6o+, 96o+, 86o+, 75o+, 65o } |
similar thing for 50% |
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maf66
2K Club
Joined: 13 Oct 2004
Posts: 2357
Location: London, UK
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| Posted: Tue Jul 15, 2008 11:34 am Post subject: |
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Ahhhhh! Now it all makes sense.
Thanks Paul. |
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ciaran
ITH Support
Joined: 10 Sep 2004
Posts: 4591
Location: Alpharetta, GA
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| Posted: Tue Jul 15, 2008 7:36 pm Post subject: |
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My gut says it's a fold, ICM considerations do need to be factored in but I don't know what a step 2 pays.
You don't need a whole lot better hand to call, though. It's just that 74o is like bottom 15%.
Still if you call, you get to listen to him bitch for 15 minutes when you suck out, so that's worth something.  |
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sprstoner
Joined: 12 Aug 2005
Posts: 115
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| Posted: Sat Jul 19, 2008 4:36 am Post subject: |
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| im calling. |
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