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Icfishies' Poker Articles
ICfishies

ICfishies

John is a professional poker player who plays the highest stakes available online, the $100/$200 limit ring game on PokerStars and the $80/$160 on UltimateBet. Three years ago he was a novice player losing thousands at online poker and about to call it quits. Things turned around for him and now ITH gets the benefit of his insight into the world of high stakes online poker. He currently makes his living from poker, sports betting, and securities trading and is willing to share some of his secrets in all three areas.

Website URL: http://www.internettexasholdem.com/poker-forum

If you want to really excel at the poker tables, then the "need for action" that a lot of us have must be contained while you patiently look for a group that appears to have as many loose/poor players as possible.   This reminds me of something that I read in a Doyle Brunson book (the man is such a great poker player....but is also quite a "gambler" underneath.)   Doyle hinted that whenever he wanted to play some cards, he and those around him would just shuffle up and deal any game at any time they could.  Now with all due respect to a poker legend:  he is dead wrong here.  If his attitude is the one that describes you, then you're playing poker for the fun of the game much moreso than to make a lot of money.  I should clarify that there is nothing wrong with that!  If you enjoy the companionship and sport of playing cards and the profits are secondary, then you're more than welcome to have that kind of fun.  But, any player (regardless of skill level) is going to have to be much more selective of their opponents if they want the chance for their dollars to really multiply. It is simply THE most important factor in achieving a high win rate at the tables.

How are the right players found?   Since I am almost exclusively an on-line player, I will focus on that aspect.  The common perception is to look for a table with a high # of people seeing the flop (30 to 40% is realistic at a full table) and a large average pot (6-7 times the big bet or higher.)  These factors are very important because they show that at least some of the players are being too loose with their chips.   However, sometimes those statistics are only based on the last 5 or 10 minutes of hands.  And, a game can also have some poor players who haven't really gotten going yet (or who haven't had time to tilt some others at the table.)  Therefore, it can really be helpful to look past the game statistics and try to find other reasons why a table might be fishy. 

I have complied a short list of ideas that should be helpful in finding those valuable fish.   In some cases, I've had to censor certain specifics because I don't want to inadvertently offend any of our readers!  In fact, I still might accidentally do so because I'm going to make certain generalizations that will probably apply to someone somehow.  If that does happen, then bear in mind that there are always exceptions to the rule and that anyone who uses ITH might likely be one!  

That being said....when you're searching the tables, I would also look for the following types of players:

--  Those with an arrogant and/or immature sounding name.  A good example might be "Igotskillzzzz" or "DMan69."  Players like these are often young, inexperienced people who have not acquired the skills or discipline to be anywhere near a long-term winner yet.  When you notice someone like this raising too often, then all the better....if a good seat is open (i.e. on his left), sit down immediately! 

--  Those who have anything porn-related in their name or avatar  (I don't think I have to specify what names or pics that might be!)   This is usually a telltale sign of someone who has spent more time reading Hustler than learning how to play cards as well as Larry Flint!   In all my time of playing on-line, I can't recall a single premier high-limit player who had a porn name or pic as his monicker. 

--  Those who have bought in for a much bigger table stake than needed  (say, $2000 at 2-4.)   That often indicates that the person is too caught up in showing off or trying to intimidate the table (or, even better, playing in a game so far beneath his roll that he won't take it seriously enough.)   It can also happen when someone has been tilted by another player and wants to imply "see, look here....I'm better than you thought."  In all of these cases, the person is often too loose or not focused enough to play a winning game. 

--  Ok, this last one is tricky.....those from certain areas of the
US (and, from certain areas of the world.) While I feel that there are definitely specific regions and countries as a whole that play better (or worse) poker than average, there's no way that I'm going to get on the bad side of some of our readers by elaborating on my personal opinions here!   Thus, everyone will have to do their own homework and decide for themselves on this one. 

Keep in mind that the more of these characteristics you find in a player, the better.  If anyone ever sees someone named Igetbootaaay with a pic of Jenna Jameson and $25,000 sitting at 30-60, please PM me immediately! :)

Hopefully you'll be able to find some more fishies in the poker pond now; next month, I'll talk about some of the best ways to deplete them of their bankroll after you sit down. 

All the best,

John

Now, onto some thoughts about the best ways to profit from these subpar players. What are the best ways to accomplish this? The answer can vary based on the stakes and the type of poor player you're up against. In this article, I am going to provide more of an insight to how I try and handle things at the higher stakes.

I'm going to separate the advice into three types of fish: the overaggressive, the limper, and the predicatable. Each type creates a different situation, and the competent player must recognize this and play each opponent appropriately in order to make the most out of his opportunities.

--- The overaggressive fish. This is the type of maniac who loves to sit down, start raising immediately (especially preflop), and create some general havoc for the entire table. He can often be tricky and he's usually very tough to put on any kind of hand. I have noticed that some people like to keep their distance from this person....sit as far away as possible and react to what he does. However, I have found that the best way to handle this type at the higher stakes is to sit down at the seat to his immediate left. Why? This allows you the option to put pressure against the maniac (and EXTREME pressure on the rest of the table) by re-raising him pre-flop at every opportunity. This strategy is NOT for the faint of heart, and it does not work very well at lower limit tables if the people will happily limp in for two or three bets anyway. But if you can succeed in eliminating the field this way, you will often find yourself with the best hand AND position on the maniac (heads up) going into the flop....putting you at a distinct advantage. It's difficult to pinpoint how far I will lower the quality of my starting hands with which to make this play; I have been known to re-raise with something like K9 if the maniac is extremely wild and I know that there's a good chance that those mediocre cards will be a monster compared to his holding. Another benefit of three-betting him often is that you will really annoy the rest of the table (and they'll likely start to press their luck to compensate.) Sometimes the whole table will then go on tilt, and you can reap the rewards if you continue to play such a controlled-aggressive strategy.

--- The limper fish. Here is a player who will hold on to his hand for dear life; you'd have a tough time getting him to fold without prying his cards away with a crowbar. He's usually involved in the action and he slowly gives away his chips until he finally hits his three-outer and scoops a decent pot against a newly-enraged opponent. This kind of player will practically force you to play better cards because you're more likely to have to win a showdown against him. If he is sitting behind you, you'll have to think twice before trying to raise pre-flop with a hand like 99 because you know that he is likely to call two bets anyway with his K8s (thus leading to you being out of position with your 99 and against maybe three opponents...not a good situation at all!) Since a limper will often create a domino-limping effect around the table, I prefer to toss most marginal hands (such as KJ in bad position) and focus on either big cards or drawing hands. When you're in a hand with the limper, it's also vital to avoid slow-playing as much (why take the chance of not being paid off by inferior draws or shots in the dark at catching one overcard, especially when the limper might not be sharp enough to figure out that you might be slowplaying anyway?)

--- The predictable fish. Pre-flop, he ALWAYS raises with QQ, calls with 66 or A-10, and folds rags (regardless of his position or what the table conditions are like.) He stays in when he flops a draw and folds when the flop misses him. He slowplays sets but raises top pair on the flop. He calls the turn with second pair and raises on the river if his hand improves. Sensing a trend here? :-) While this type of fish will not fill your pockets as quickly as the first two types, you can still grind away against him without incurring a lot of risk. When he raises, you can fold your second pair on the turn or your 77 preflop. You can also try fancier bluffs against him, because he will quickly fold a questionable hand if you show aggression at the right time. Personally, I prefer the first two types of fish more because it takes awhile to know that you should give someone the "predictable" label (the other two types are much easier to spot.)

I'll wrap up this two-part discussion of finding/gutting the poker fish with the following thought: while it's extremely important to sit with the right players, please don't be a "Wonger." Those of you who are serious blackjack students might be familiar with this term. A Wonger is a blackjack player who watches the game for a long time until the count is extremely positive. Then, he sits down to get in as many hands as he can in the positive deck before leaving immediately afterward (the term comes from author Stanford Wong, who became well-known for doing this years ago.) I find the practice disrespectful to the regular players (who have been betting their money during both the positive and negative counts.) There are a couple of players at Pokerstars (friends, actually) who do the exact same thing at 30-60 and 100-200....they only show up when a game is ridiculously good, and then they are gone very quickly. While some consider this quite shrewd, I've always felt that it is a slap in the face to the regulars who play in both great AND good games. Not to mention the fact that a Wonger will not make that much money overall (even though a skilled one will have a very high win rate....what good does that do you if you've only played a handful of hours?)

Until next month everyone......find weak opponents, play them the right way, and win without Wonging too much!

All the best,
John

Anyway, something that really stood out to me was a subject that had nothing to do with actual trading: most of these rare extremely successful traders (including the ones who had families) were completely immersed in the world of the markets. A lot of them were into currencies or foreign markets and would often be in and out of bed during the middle of the night as they glued themselves to their monitors. While many were rich beyond their wildest dreams and could have retired at any time, they were all still eager to hit the pavement every day w/ their latest positions. They would still get grumpy after a bad day and feel confident and smug after a good one. It was almost like an addiction and a complete obsession, and I used to wonder: "how can they let their work seem to dominate their lives 24 hours a day?"

Then, I started playing poker at night.....

All of a sudden, I started to understand how these guys operated. Poker turned into my "foreign markets/currencies overnight trading" and often kept me very late. While my poker wins and losses were not as important to me as my other career areas, playing still seemed to enhance my overall career highs and lows. Thus, I learned the hard way about how important it is for people to understand themselves and how they should incorporate this type of activity into their lives. Regardless of whether you are a full-time pro, a newbie playing for pennies, or somewhere in between....I think that the rest of this article should contain some ideas that will help you enjoy poker (and life) more.

The first thing to realize is: how emotional does playing poker make you at times? While some of us are more competitive than others, my experiences have shown that most people do get at least somewhat stressed out over their poker results. Naturally, this can often lead to some poor play at times. There ARE some competent pros out there who can keep this effect down to the bare minimum; but ironically, they are the ones who seem to be such unemotional people that they don't really enjoy the prosperity that their tilt-free existence awards them! If you happen to be one of them, then please close this article, smile, and go enjoy some fresh air for once! :-) Most players (being honest with themselves) will have to read on though...oh, the horror!

The largest stress-inducing factor that most players have is when they focus on their losing swings, days, or even hours (instead of on their overall results or on enjoying their wins.) I admit to being guilty of this on numerous occasions: you win 400 big bets in a couple months and feel that the poker world is your oyster; then, here comes that downswing of 200 big bets lost back. Now, you don't even want to look at a poker table. Even though you fully realize that the swings are inevitable, you still sit there and can't get your mind off the fact that losing that much money back is quite annoying and disappointing. What to do about this? I've found that the best way to ease your mind is to find the best positive spin that you can put on the situation. If you are an overall winning player over a long period of time, then this shouldn't be that difficult to do: take a deep breath and remind yourself that you've made $x playing poker and that the latest losing swing is nothing but a slight bump in the road. Failing to do so will put you in danger of pressing too much to get "back where you were", and that will usually lead to bigger problems than a simple downswing. However, up-and-coming players will have times when those overall results become questionable or negative $. If this happens to you, then it's very important to think in terms of future success (and how to get there.) Re-read ITH, think about what you've learned from your losses, and stay positive from the thought of your future as a winning player that can come from getting more experience and becoming more competent in your play.

Another issue that many players deal with is how poker can dominate your mind and health (as described near the beginning of the article.) I've seen some posts on ITH where people open up and describe how it's happened to them......some loved it, while others started to get concerned. Personally, I am not comfortable with the feeling of poker (or the rest of my work) getting in the way of exercise and a social life; therefore, I try to cut this off at the past whenever I start to notice myself falling into the trap (and with three career areas, it can happen easily.) There isn't really much that I can say as far as how to avoid this; often, it's as simple as becoming cognizant of the situation. Take a look outside and reflect about the many things that the world has to offer you BESIDES poker! Summon up the energy to go spend some time with your family instead or to get your butt outside for awhile! Speaking of.....if anyone needs a new tennis partner in the southern Cali area, let me know!.... :-D

Finally, I've noticed that a lot of people seem to force themselves to play poker when they aren't even enjoying it. I know a few pros (some part-time, some full-time) who literally have to drag themselves to the tables every day (or to their computer screen.) While plenty of people really enjoy their time at the tables, I'm amazed by how many simply feel like they don't really want to be there. If this happens to you, then I'd really take a moment to consider your motives for playing. There might be a deeper psychological issue at hand; if you need a break from playing, then why torture yourself? Would you enjoy another less-stressful hobby more (that doesn't risk your hard-earned money?) Those questions really need to be answered, or else this "fun" hobby will be anything but!

Alright, enough of the concerned tone of this article! I sure don't want to take away from any of the fun pleasure that hold 'em brings millions of people every day. However, I've seen it take control of people and their happiness way too often. So, I wanted to present these thoughts with the hope that it helps everyone put things into perspective and enjoy their playing experiences more.

Next month, I will discuss how the logic of successful poker play can be applied to sports betting (specifically the NFL.) Football will be here before we know it!

All the best,
John

 

However, before I go....I promised some NFL advice that so many of you were anticipating. I don't plan to disappoint! When it comes to figuring out the few profitable bets that you can find in pro football, the edges are much more subtle than the average poker hand. For example, you might have an open-ended straight draw on the turn when you're getting 10 to 1 pot odds. Obviously, the mathematical edge on calling one turn bet is very large. The opposite is usually true when you're betting the NFL (or most sports bets), where a 3% to 5% edge is something that should put a huge smile on your face!

How do you go about getting these edges? There are a few suprisingly simple methods that can drastically improve your results. If you want to turn the odds in your favor this season, then forget everything that you thought you knew about NFL betting and focus on the advice below:

-- Play six-point teasers on home teams that are either: a. favored by 7.5 to 8.5 points or b. 1.5 or 2 point underdogs at sites that offer either 2-team six-point teasers at even money or 3 team six-point teasers at +180 (18 to 10.) For example, let's say that you scan the weekend's NFL lines and find Kansas City -8.5 at home against Miami and Washington +2 at home vs. Philadelphia. You'd find one of your sites (better be a member of many!) that offers even money on the above two-team teasers and take Kansas City -2.5 with Washington +8. You must win both to collect on the bet (which will happen slightly more than 50% of the time.)

Why does this work? Well, NFL games are most likely to finish with the favored team winning by 3,4,6,7, or 10 (with 3 being the most important number by far...followed by 7.) Home teams are more likely to either win outright (in KC) or keep the game close (with Wash.) And, NFL games rarely land on a team winning by one or two (which makes -2.5 very desirable.) So when you tease the above teams "through both the 3 and 7", you have created a powerful bet. I actually stumbled upon this myself about five years ago (during a rare moment of in-depth reserach) when I studied the prior 10 years of NFL pointspread results and calculated that those specific teasers would've had a 6% edge. Soon after, Stanford Wong's "Sharp Sports Betting" documented a very similar finding. In fact, the Vegas sportsbooks (in an equally rare moment of competency) started to take some punishment on these bets and have made them more expensive to play. Luckily, there are still plenty of very reputable on-line sites who continue to offer the good ol' prices! As long as NFL lines continue to be very accurate (which I certainly don't see changing anytime in the near future) and the two-team teases continue to be offered on-line at even money or better, these gems should keep providing the astute bettor a healthy edge. One last note before I move on: I have not included home 2.5 point underdogs in that subset (as Sharp Sports betting does), because the line often moves to 3 in that situation (which substantially reduces the value of a teaser with +8.5)

-- Focus on underdogs while in Las Vegas. Many of the sportsbooks there still tend to be very risk-averse and will be quick to slightly inflate lines on the games w/ lots of favorite betting by the square public. I've often seen -11 or -11.5 on a pro game that is a solid 10.5 all over the off-shore sites (which, as a general rule, have more accurate lines than they do in Vegas. Don't look so suprised!.) While some of these bets will still have a negative expected value (discussing the exact point where these lines become + EV is beyond the scope of this article), it will always help your overall results to get that extra 1/2 point or full point.

-- Pay special attention to Sunday night and Monday night football. Since these games are the only action in town, many Vegas books and on-line sites get plenty of lopsided action on the favorite and on the over. If a solid site (such as Pinnacle, which is the standard for the "market" line that I use) has -6.5 and 42 on a game, then you will be more likely to find a -7 or a 43.5 someplace if it's on Sunday or Monday night.

The last few items are more directed at the bettor who just wants to take "who he likes" rather than finding the best mathematical bets (I know plenty of you are out there!) While I certainly don't advocate this....if you must, be sure to:

-- JOIN MANY SITES. I cannot emphasize this enough! You simply MUST have enough different outlets to find the best possible price on your bets. If a line is 7.5 most places, you might be able to find an 8. If you like a favorite that is -4, one of your sites could have 3 1/2. There WILL be times that the game will end 21-17....and you will feel like you've just pulled a rabbit out of your hat. Sometimes you can even find a solitary 6.5 or 7.5 when every other book around is a solid -7, and that is a very important half point. Different sites can also have varying teaser prices and promotions (if you decide to relent and look for the ones listed earlier) :-)

-- Take advantage of bonuses at the on-line sites. Most of them will offer 10 to 20% on your initial deposit, and some will give you 10% on your re-ups as well. I'm sure that a lot of you are used to doing this with poker, so it will seem like second nature.

-- And finally, always check Pinnaclesports before making your bet. As I've mentioned before in my forum, that site will save the favorite-loving better a lot of money throughout the course of an entire season. Why lay the traditional 110 to 100 on games when Pinnacle will often let you have the same bet at -103 or -107? For the fan who only wants to bet his favorite team or his "hunches" and accepts his losses as the cost of entertainment, spending a few seconds to use Pinnacle will cut that cost in half.

Any questions? The only quiz is at the end of the season (when you'll have look back and see if you had the discipline to make the right decisions and see how your sports betting bankroll has changed.) If you follow the advice above, you will be well on your way to finally turning the corner (or, for the "entertainment cost" bettor, at least cutting into your losses.)

It's been fun, everyone....even though I won't be an official advisor on ITH anymore, I will still be around and be happy to answer any general questions that you might have (about sports, the market, or anything else on your mind!)

Go get 'em this season!

John